History Shows: Boring Will Not Last

Comment on the July 25 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose that week to $2.55 in Michigan.

Saturday, August 19, 2017, 11:00AM: I’ve been posting less this summer for a few reasons. One is the great work of my TGG colleagues. The other is that, other than a brief dip in June, wholesale gas prices have been pretty steady since the beginning of May, and retail prices have been, well, boring. We’ve had eight price resets in almost four months, with prices buzzing around this summer’s Michigan average of about $2.45. That’s a far cry from the twice-a-week hikes we saw a few years ago, and the $4+ per gallon. This inflation-adjusted chart of gas prices going back to the 1970’s really tells the story:

Things will get crazy again at some point, and these quiet times are the ones to sharpen our analytic tools and study the past. Short-term, I think we’ll see a price reset this coming week, probably on Thursday. Back to $2.55 again? –Ed A.

Updated: August 19, 2017 — 10:42 am


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  1. local prices in NW Ohio RT 20 corridor touching 2.099 in spots so that’s 6 cents under the spike line..yet 15 miles away its still 2.299. Not sure if we can make it to Thursday. The nearest Speedway is at 2.199 – so my bet is 2.159 there Monday..2.459 by Midday Tuesday

  2. From what I’ve been reading, inventory is shrinking but production is up. That’s helped steady retail prices. There’s been rumblings that some OPEC members may be loosening up on the pledge to hold the line on exports. Will a price reset wait until Wed’s report? I don’t think I will. Looks like a fill up on Monday for me.

  3. Gas is going up to $2.55/gal today In MI

  4. Hasn’t hit the east side of the state yet, Taurus. I filled up at $2.27 an hour ago.

  5. Hate it when Ed is right :-). At least in the prices going up direction. Kazoo area going to 2.55 as I write this..

  6. I just scored $1.96 in Lafayette Indiana. Probably be $2.46 by the end of the day. Hoping to see the switch to winter blend by the end of September and a further downward trend in prices

  7. I got my 24 gallons for both cars and the mower last evening for $2.09. I was happy.

  8. and off we go..finally in Ohio..Speedway leading to 2.399
    30 c spike in some places..less than 10 c in others…….

  9. Get ready for a big jump I’m afraid. Sure the storm coming on short in Texas will be a reason to jack the prices on everyone.

  10. Get ready for a big jump I’m afraid. Sure the storm coming on shore in Texas will be a reason to jack the prices on everyone.

  11. yep big jump in spot prices today..the 20c spike in Ohio Halved today so lot places back to 2.30-2.32 already–so right back in spike territory 24 hours later.. saturday 2.599 coming to Ohio?

  12. RBOB already up another 7 cents this morning. Not sure what spot is doing.
    Any excuse for the oil traders to jack up prices.

  13. Filled 3/8 of a tank at $2.36 this morning, .05 below the MI Spike Line. The reset of earlier this week didn’t last long around east Ann Arbor but GB now has a red arrow with a Prices Rising….again.

  14. Spot is actually down 0.3 cents at mid-day. I’m sure the Big Red execs are pacing back n forth wanting to grab the spike lever still

  15. Pretty much as soon as I posted that, RBOB started going back down (damn it). I’m sure Big Red will still use yesterday’s jump as an excuse to spike.

  16. Crude went down like a rock today, but spot surely didn’t follow. It broke $1.71 so there’s the news Big Red needed. I’m guessing $2.59-$2.69 tomorrow or Wednesday?

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