Comment on the May 26 prediction: CORRECT, as prices did “drop slowly” that week, enough to create the conditions for a reset back to $3.29 last Monday.

Saturday, June 7, 2025, 6 PM: We’ve been $62ish for oil and $1.99ish for publicly-traded wholesale gas for several weeks now, leading to prices jumping to $3.39, then sliding towards $2.99, and then back to $3.39 multiple times. The last few days, oil is up towards $65 (in tandem with the SP 500 returning to 6000), pulling wholesale gas prices higher, and driving around Grand Rapids today, I didn’t see much of an interest in prices heading back to $2.99. I predict we will see $3.49 this week. -EA

Comment on the May 17 prediction: CORRECT on the first part of the week. “Coin flip” landed tails, as we did get a pre-holiday “powerful” hike, exactly to $3.39.

Monday, May 26, 2025, 10 AM: Although you can find gas under $3 in Holland and Cedar Springs, for the most part, prices are holding in the $3.30’s in Michigan. Based on the cost of oil, gas prices should be lower, but it is summer so that means that something has gone wrong at one of the refineries. In this case, Joliet. I expect retail gas prices to drop slowly this week. -EA

Comment on the May 11 prediction: Absolutely CORRECT, as we saw a “powerful” hike to $3.39 the next day.

Saturday, May 17, 2025, 1 PM: Other than an enticing but temporary dip the first half of March, wholesale gas prices have been hovering around $2 a gallon since the beginning of the year, despite oil prices falling more than 10%. Blame it on seasonality — the tendency of gas prices to go up from Christmas until Labor Day, and to fall the last four months of the year. Except for weird, local situations, any blasts from politicians about retail gas prices “at new lows” or “soaring” are a bunch of smoke out the tailpipe right now.

In Michigan, prices are averaging around $3.29 today, and there is no threat of a new price hike unless that average gets close to $3, like it did a week ago. I am predicting no hike for the next several days. Will they do a pre-Memorial Day weekend hike on Thursday, back to $3.39? Right now, a prediction would be a coin flip. -EA

Comment on the April 30 prediction: Basically correct, as we haven’t seen a hike since then, and prices have dipped down near $3 in most places in the region.

Sunday, May 11, 2025, 8 AM: Happy Mother’s Day! Lately, the push-and-pull on gas prices has been a mix of lower oil prices ($60 a barrel) vs. summer gas formulation and demand. The result in west Michigan is retail prices near $3, except in certain places, such as my drive to work along Lake Michigan Drive, which held above $3.30 all last week. Along that strip, the usual low-price leaders have not led.

With an uptick in wholesale prices on Friday, I think they are itching to get back to $3.39 across the board, and I predict they’ll try that soon. Whether it will be a “powerful” hike embraced by all or a “shallow” attempt (Hello, Marathon?) is unclear at the moment. -EA

Comment on the April 20 prediction: If you stretch the definition of “this week” to include the following Sunday, April 27, and accept that the hike didn’t really kick in until Monday, then the prediction of a hike to $3.39 was CORRECT.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025, 9 AM: I watched wholesale gas prices tick up a week ago and thought that $3.29 or $3.39 was imminent. It was not, and instead, many stations found their way to $2.99 last week, so much so that it looked a bit like a system-wide reset. Then, on Sunday, after I ran in the Izzo 5K at MSU, I saw an Admiral near the MSU campus post $3.39, and a few other stations in the state followed suit (e.g., Marathons). Then, the next day (Monday), we got a “powerful” reset to $3.39, and I haven’t come across a station yet that did not comply.

$3.39 is the highest price for gas in Michigan since October.

This was also one of those hikes that seemed to trigger a drop in wholesale prices, starting with oil, which is back to $60 a barrel, like it was a few days after the tariff “Liberation Day”. That tells me to expect lower prices and shop around as we head toward the weekend. -EA

Comment on the April 13 prediction: Completely WRONG, as they jacked up prices to $3.29 in Michigan on the 15th, and at least in west Michigan, that hike was embraced by pretty much all of the retailers.

Sunday, April 20, 2025, 8 AM: It was disappointing to see the price hike on Tax Day last week, and we aren’t reaping the short-term benefits of tariff-anxiety-inspired drops in oil prices. Really, gas should be below $3 right now. From the 15th to the 19th, though, some of the retailers agreed, such as the Meijer in Cascade, which jumped to $3.29 on Tuesday but was back to $2.99 by Friday.

I am starting to think about some sort of rating system for price hikes. There are the “powerful” hikes that all the stations embrace as soon as possible and prices hold at that level for several days; the “shallow” hikes that are embraced broadly but some retailers back off after a few days; and then there are the “lame” hikes that one or two brands try to start while the rest of the retailers ignore.

I am going to work on this rating system more, just for fun, but it looks like last week’s hike was a “shallow” one. Looking into this week, if anything, there was a bit of an uptick on oil prices since Tuesday, so they may want a “powerful” reset to $3.29 this week. Or even $3.39. -EA