The Spike Line

More information on the formulas used to figure the taxes and fees adjustments can be found below. Click on a picture to the right to see a larger view.
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Updated 06/20/24 11:20 AM EST

Spike Line Statistics for 6/18/2024

($USD)
Chicago Spot $2.3080
Change DOWN $0.0040
USA Average $3.436
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Spike Line Deviation $0.6484 $0.6424 $0.6795 $0.6960
Spike Line Price $2.8036 $2.8036 $2.8745 $2.7320
Movement -$0.1265 -$0.1265 -$0.1567 -$0.1880
Average $3.4520 $3.4460 $3.5540 $3.4280
Movement -$0.0420 -$0.0310 -$0.0230 -$0.0230

Gas Price Statistics

($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Low $2.949 $2.899 $3.159 $2.889
High $3.699 $3.899 $3.899 $3.699

Diesel Price Statistics

($USD) Indy, Indiana, Michigan
Chicago low sulfur diesel: $2.3230
Change -$0.0430
($USD) Indy Indiana Michigan Ohio
Spike Line adjustment: $0.828 $0.828 $0.927 $0.604
Spike Line: $3.151 $3.151 $3.250 $2.927

 

    

Indy Spike Line Chart


      

Indiana Spike Line Chart


      

Michigan Spike Line Chart


      

Ohio Spike Line Chart


Taxes and fees formula for Indianapolis/Indiana

CS + (CS*.07) + ST + FT + IC + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.8856

CS = Chicago Spot (currently using NYMEX)
CS*.07 = Indiana Sales Tax (7%)
ST = State Infrastructure Tax or 33¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
IC = Inspection Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 18¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = -$0.3900

Taxes and fees formula for Michigan

CS + ((FT + CS)*.06) + ST + FT + EC + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.8065

CS = Chicago Spot (currently using NYMEX)
ST = State Tax or 26.3¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
((CS + FT)*.06) = Michigan Sales Tax on Chicago Spot and Federal Tax
EC = Environmental Charge or 1¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 18¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = -$0.2400

Taxes and fees formula for Ohio

CS + ST + FT + CO + FR + RA
Currently: $0.6740

CS = Chicago Spot (currently using NYMEX)
ST = State Tax or 28¢
FT = Federal Tax or 18.4¢
CO = Cost adjustment or 16¢
FR = Freight cost or 5¢
RA = Rack Adjustment = Rack Adjust

Currently I am adding 19.1 cents to the Indy/Indianapolis diesel taxes and fees and 15.9 cents to the Michigan diesel taxes and fees based on how much more taxes are for diesel on the GasBuddy Gas Taxes chart.

The Spike Line is a feature that has been around a while here at TheGasGame.com. Here we will determine a “Spike Line” based on market forces and help you in figuring when is the right time to buy gas.

We start with the Chicago Spot. This is the base line that stations should be paying before they pay taxes, fees, and other stuff like wages, rent and electricity. Those things are factored in with the Spike Line Adjustment. The Rack Adjustment is the difference between Chicago’s weekly rack number and Indianapolis’s, Detroit’s, or Cleveland’s, depending on your state.

Add those all together, and we get the Spike Line. See how close that is to the average for the day (and I judge it by the GasBuddy average) And that is the Spike Line Deviation. Too large a deviation, and you should hold off on buying gas. Closer to zero, and you should keep an eye on prices, as a spike is close. If it is in the negative, buy ASAP, because a spike could be coming.

 

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