Comment on the July 12 prediction: Prices rose on Wednesday to $4.29 in Michigan, so the prediction was CORRECT.
Sunday, July 19, 2026, 7 PM: As of this writing, oil is up on Sunday night to $85 a barrel, as the war/not war with Iran continues. Costco in west Michigan has been knocking prices higher since Wednesday, and we are currently at $4.15. As Costco’s pricing is a good proxy for the 0-cent margin price, it seems like we have $4.39 or higher coming. Topping the tank on Monday is the wise move.
A good medium-term signal about gas prices is movement in the stock of Valero Energy (VLO). It has doubled in the past 12 months, and it has been on a tear the past four weeks, anticipating the move above $4 a gallon in July. Higher gas prices mean more marginal profits for refiners like VLO. As has been reported elsewhere, the war/not war in Iran has put more pressure on refined energy products than on the price of oil. So, in contrast, the stock of Exxonmobil Holdings Corp. is up “only” 36% over the past twelve months. (Despite all the tech/AI hype, a share of Microsoft is down 23% since last July.) -EA
