Comment on the November 24 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, as prices rose soon after to $3.29, except for some stations that shrugged and said no.

Sunday, December 8, 2024, 7 PM: Looks like we are pretty much back where we were with my last posting before Thanksgiving. Wholesale prices continue to flatline and retail prices continue to drip lower. The Syria news doesn’t seem to be having any immediate effect on oil traders. So, expecting a reset again in the next few days, maybe just to $3.19 this time, but $3.29 would not surprise me.

Historically, gas prices bottom out in December before beginning a climb in the new year. Are we at the bottom, or will it be later this month? -EA

Sunday, November 24, 2024, 11 AM: I feel like I won the Gas Game this morning, filling up in the low $2.70’s near the ballpark in Grand Rapids. In the past week, wholesale prices have ticked up a bit, but the retailers kept their price-hike-loving fingers at bay. I don’t think that we will be so lucky on Monday or Tuesday, with the holiday travel week upon us. The question is what is the new price? If the inflated margin scheme continues, we are back to $3.29 again. If old-school margins return, then $2.99 would be the prediction. So, somewhere in between $2.99 and $3.29 it is. Fill those tanks today. -EA

Comment on the November 10 prediction: Absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose to $3.29 the next day throughout Michigan.

Sunday, November 17, 2024, 4 PM: It feels like choose-your-own-adventure for the next two weeks, given that wholesale prices have barely changed since last Sunday, and the Thanksgiving holiday is coming up. The hike last Monday defines our current ceiling of $3.29, while the floor is somewhere in the $2.60’s. What we saw last week is that after everyone embraced $3.29, a combination of competition and inconsistent demand encouraged some stations to find their way below $3 in a hurry. For this week, I can imagine a replay of November 11 and we head back to $3.29, or a gas price war down to the $2.60’s, or both. And a wild card is this weirdness this month by the Federal Reserve.

It is hard to play the Gas Game at the moment and make a prediction. If it helps, I filled up this morning for $2.99 in Kent County. I hope to get gas again for under $3 next weekend before the holiday. -EA

Comment on the October 27 prediction: Two days after my post, prices reset to $3.29 in Michigan, so the prediction was WRONG. Then, prices gravitated towards $3.

Sunday, November 10, 2024, 8 AM: My read of wholesale prices out of Chicago is that they have been pretty steady since Labor Day. Out of Detroit, there has been more volatility, as you can see on this chart, but they have been in a downward trend for the past six weeks. That Detroit trend has helped push prices noticeably below $3 in Michigan in certain places, like Greenville.

However, we continue to live in the higher-margin world in 2024, with less tolerance by those who define retail gas prices for the 0-cent margin price (which I estimate to be in the $2.60’s). With the election over, I think we’ll see an attempted reset in Michigan this week in the $3.19-$3.29 range, which would be consistent with how the Game has been playing out this fall. I would be looking to fill up below $3 today or Monday. -EA

Comment on the October 20 prediction: Prices slid last week and the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, October 27, 2024, 10 AM: There is no trend to wholesale prices and there is speculation that they will go lower this week after the latest in the Middle East. Meanwhile, retail prices dropped some last week, but I think they still have a way to go. I would be hunting around for $2.99 gas this week, in Michigan or elsewhere. As I wrote a week ago, unless something unexpected happens in the futures market, I am not expecting a hike this week. -EA

Comment on the October 13 prediction: CORRECT as predicted, as they listened and pursued a modest hike to $3.39 on Monday.

Sunday, October 20, 2024, 6 PM: Since Monday’s hike, oil prices ticked lower, as did wholesale gas prices. Retail prices in west Michigan are starting to fall, slowly. Other than in the northern part of Kent County (such as Greenville), it is pretty much in the $3.19 – $3.39 range. Unless something unexpected happens in the futures market, I am not expecting a hike this week.

Go Green!

-Ed A.