Comment on the March 15 prediction: It is as if they read the prediction and said, “WRONG, Ed”. An hour after I posted it, I was driving through Lowell and saw that Big M had posted a new price of $3.29. That was surprising, to say the least, but given past failures of Big M to start a region-wide hike, I didn’t worry about it. The rest of the region raised prices to $3.29 on Tuesday the 18th.

Sunday, March 23, 2025, 2 PM: So, what happened last week? Switching over to the “summer gas” blend added about 12 cents per gallon to the wholesale price last Monday, and the retailers passed that along to drivers. You could tell this was legit because Costco also raised their price, although it took a few days. If there is good news, there are prices of $3.07 – $3.09 scattered about, either because those stations didn’t follow the leaders last Tuesday or we have some good ol’ Gas Game competition going on.

What’s next? There are no obvious signs in the wholesale market of a further hike. I will be keeping an eye on whether the gasoline markets start moving in anticipation of the tariff “Liberation Day” of April 2. -EA

Saturday, March 15, 2025, 7 AM: In our last post, we saw Marathon attempt a hike to $3.15. Once again, most competitors were not interested in following. Some $3.09’s popped up a few days later, but it wasn’t until Thursday the 13th that a region-wide reset to that price occurred.

Those widespread resets have been few and far between for months, and I continue to think about why that has been the case. Just looking at the numbers, wholesale prices have been incredibly stable since mid-October, including oil prices vibrating around $70 a barrel. The seasonal pattern in gasoline prices — a tendency to go lower from Labor Day to Christmas and then rise the first half of the yea — has been there, but mild.

Then I ponder the political environment. As we discussed in February, Speedway and friends were a lot more aggressive with their retail pricing last year, when Biden was president. Was that a coincidence? Just asking questions.

Oil prices have been falling since January 15 and that should keep gas prices tame for the rest of the month. I predict no new hikes or resets for the upcoming week. -EA

Monday, March 3, 2025, 5 PM: I usually post on Sundays, but I waited until now to see if there was any news about tariffs. Trump announced a few hours ago that 25% tariffs go into effect at midnight.

Meanwhile, driving home, I see that Marathon in Standale is trying again to reset prices, this time to $3.15. Will they finally see a hike embraced broadly, specifically by Speedway? Let’s see …

Why Marathon should win: While wholesale prices dipped a week ago, they are starting to move up again, and many stations have prices posted that are under their cost today. The new tariff on Canada will probably raise wholesale prices. And a hike to $3.15 is mild enough in many places that it may persuade other retailers to follow.

Why Marathon should lose: Probably due to the imminent tariffs, oil prices just hit their low for 2025. As reported last week, Speedway has lost interest in aggressive pricing since Trump was elected.

Here is my plan: Fill up by tomorrow morning, when you find gas under $3. While there is a small chance we’ll see prices drop to $2.49, it is more likely that they’ll reset prices now and see what happens next. -EA

Friday, February 21, 2025, 10 AM: I have been posting less often, because wholesale prices have been stable since, well, late August of last year. It is weird, but it has also kept prices closer to $3 than $4 in the Midwest. This week, it appears there was a mild price reset to $3.09 in west Michigan, although Marathon tried … again … to hike to $3.19.

In 2025 so far, it seems the retailers are accepting lower margins (profit per gallon sold) than they were during 2024. As readers know, the aggressiveness of 2024 has been on my mind for a while, so this morning I dove into my spreadsheets to look back as far as 2020 and study my calculations to estimate margin.

In the figure, I’ve divided the last five years into three periods. For 2020-21, the first year of the pandemic, we had classic Gas Game behavior, with margins topping out at about 30 cents per gallon after each price hike. In 2022 through about a year ago, margins varied wildly, driven in part by the Ukraine war (which started where I have drawn the yellow arrow) and high inflation. (It is still a question of how much of that inflation was caused by higher oil and gas prices.) Then, starting a year ago, hikes started occurring at the 30-cent mark, rather than hikes landing at that mark.

The red arrow marks Election Day, and it appears to me that aggressive pricing subsided after the election. Or, there is some sort of winter break right now, and pricing behavior is going to start being driver-unfriendly again next month, which is what happened a year ago.

Short-term, once again, I have no prediction to make. If the 2024 switch is turned back on, we could easily see $3.39. If not, prices will drop below $3 again. We’ll see. -EA

Sunday, February 9, 2025, 4 PM: Here in west Michigan, there was a slow-motion price hike midweek last week, to $3.09. This was after Marathon’s failed attempt to get to $3.29.

That was a pretty weak hike compared to what we saw in the final two years of the Biden administration, and inquiring minds are wondering why. Rumor is that there has been a glut of gasoline in storage in the Midwest for the last several weeks, something that the public wholesale price pages like this one don’t seem to be capturing. Predicting what’s next is difficult, without having a reasonable estimate of the price that retail stations are paying to fill their underground tanks.

If this over-supply corrects itself this week, a reset to at least $3.19 is in the cards. But, that is an “if”. Another “if” is what’s next from Washington. So, as I wrote last time, I have no idea what is going to happen this week. -EA

Comment on the January 25 prediction: 1/2 CORRECT (Marathon raised prices to $3.29 last Monday night and some stations followed), 1/2 WRONG (Speedway did not follow).

Sunday, February 2, 2025, 10 AM: I did not have on my bingo card that Speedway would become a hero for gas prices in 2025, but here we are. Twice in January, Marathon initiated a spike to $3.29 in west Michigan, only to have Speedway shrug. Other retailers, experts in the game of follow-the-leader, have been confused. I saw one of the K&G’s match Marathon, while another didn’t. A few Shells were quick to follow Big Blue. Meanwhile, gas is typically under $3 a gallon at Big Red today, as if they’ve decided to start competing with low-price-leader Costco instead.

So, it has been Big Blue vs. Big Red. Is there some hidden political meaning to it all?

That brings us to the new tariffs. The ones applied to Canada have the potential to put upward pressure on gas prices. I think more likely in the short term is that the narrative that “tariffs will bring higher prices” will give retailers permission to raise prices, even if the tariffs themselves don’t have a big effect on wholesale costs. And not just gasoline.

I am going to fill up today because I have no idea what is going to happen this week. -EA