Comment on the September 14 prediction: I was CORRECT that a hike was coming, but WRONG when I wrote, “They’ll keep it under $3”.
Sunday, September 21, 2025, Noon: Long-time readers know that, for a retail gas price restoration, I have been struggling to correctly predict the new price. While the dynamic remains to spike prices when margins get small, a new aggressiveness has kicked in over the past few years. To continue to win the Gas Game, you have to work with the prices that exist, not the prices you wish were true. So what am I going to do?
Time to respect a pattern I’ve started to notice: the difference between the new price and the current Costco price (in west Michigan) is usually in the 50-60 cent range. That might mean that after a strong hike, the stations are taking in over a half-dollar a gallon in profit, or that Costco is selling below cost. While I’d love to know which is true, it doesn’t matter when the goal is to win the Game. That difference is 52 cents this weekend, so no obvious hike is in the cards.
Indianapolis area Speedways hiking to $3.299.
South Bend IN – Greedway x2 by ND and always follower Martin’s up from $3.05 to $3.29 today. Same for Family Express although the Mishawaka/Granger location never left $3.29 as is often the case with that one.
South Bend IN – More to $3.29 today. Filled up st Costco for $2.81, was $2.79 yesterday.
Late day hike back to $3.59 in Illinois. Largest post hike margins I’ve ever seen, and 20c high than 2 weeks ago.
…should have said margins 20c more than after the hike 2 weeks ago.