Situation Normal — Here Comes $1.89

Comment on my February 8 prediction:  Prices fell for a few days, then rose a bit that Thursday, so I call this a PUSH.

Monday, February 29, 2016, 8:30PM:  It is starting to look like gas and oil prices bottomed out on February 11, and stocks, too.  Wholesale gas prices have practically doubled since then!  There is enough scare in the markets to see them start “climbing the wall of worry” and to convince central bankers to try to goose the market up.  We also know that gas prices usually rise the first four months of the year, and after a delay, I think we are back to SNAFU — situation normal, all ….  Short-term, expect a price hike on Tuesday.  Estimated new price:  $1.89. — Ed A.

Updated: February 29, 2016 — 8:26 pm


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  1. Ohio is going to see $2.199 today. States that jumped yesterday will probably pancake-spike Saturday.
    If we “only” go to $2.099, Speedway will spike again Saturday.

  2. $2.199 is my guess as well. Ohio weather will be mid-60s to low-70s for the next several days rain or shine. GREEDway will want their cut of any increased driving because of the unseasonably warm weather.

    We will find out in just over 1/2 hour.

  3. $1.99 in Ohio.

  4. After watching this for years, they resist $2. Give it the next hike or after.


    Pretty good read.. Of course it is the Post, so…

  6. Yeah, just saw that also. Think they pull a great lakes wide hike on saturday, or is this likely going to be dependent on where spot rolls today? If there was any hope in the numbers, gasoline inventories still seemed up in the midwest from this time last year (although great lakes not broken out of that) and refinery utilization rates were up from the week before…

  7. I don’t know about Saturday, it’s just not a big enough move (in spot) to warrant it. They’d have gone higher today if it was absolutely necessary. Also, John Crudele is a moron. Look at his tone:

    “Gasoline consumption in the US peaked in 2007 at 9.3 million barrels a day. It was only 9.16 million barrels in 2015, and the EIA is projecting just a slight increase this year.” A 1.5% drop in gasoline demand per day (yet ignoring that we consume nearly 385,000,000 million gallons a day?!) is all he looks at. “Only” 9.16 million barrels? Don’e get me started. And he says there’s “255 million barrels of gasoline stockpiled”? Um no, blending components yes, that’s not finished gasoline. This guy, I swear. Clueless. 🙂

    For all the crap he’s sprouting, let’s think about this: 518 million barrels of oil he says, versus 444 million last year. So we have 25.9 days of supply now versus 22.2 a year ago. Three and a half more days of oil supply. That’s not much. The lens he looks at the market is jacked up. Sigh.

  8. Ohio spiking to $1.999. I’m sure we will get pancaked again on Saturday unless spot takes a SIGNIFICANT hit the next two days..

  9. Minneapolis/ St Paul area spiking to $2.099. Led by no other than Super America

  10. 1.999 RT 20 corridor..round here seems to be led by…….BP – on way home still plenty of 1.75’s at 5.00pm so it wasnt a quick everybody up same time as for Saturday …..

  11. Topped off the wife’s car. Probably the last under $2 purchase of my lifetime? Been buying gas since 1956.

  12. Patrick, a 1.5% drop may not be worth mentioning but the USA of 2007 is not the USA of 2016. There’s nearly 20 million more people, miles driven have increased after being flat for a while, number of vehicles on the road has increased, and so on.

    The article posted may be a bit off the scholarly path but I would not dismiss it outright.

    A few weeks ago crude was at $28. Now it’s at $38. Why? That’s a pretty spectacular rise. Iran will pump more, no geopolitical meh’s to deal with, so what’s going on? Could it be that the Powers That Be ™ are preparing us for the march towards $3.00 never mind what crude does or does not?

    The rise in crude stocks is likewise unimportant in the grand scheme of things, except that you can’t store oil in a scrap yard. You need infrastructure to transport and store it. So it is significant to some extent.

  13. see spot has dropped back around 10c last couple days..around rt20 ohio corridor 1.949 is the ‘going’ rate right now

    a weekend spike to over 2 dollars seems to have receded a bit,,but next week is a whole new week

    at 2.00 a gallon we are around 30 cents less than this time last year so all please bear that in mind

    this time of year I start to get interested in the price of ethanol free gas for the boat as it almost time to put the ‘ole pontoon back in the water..i remember a couple years ago the marina charging $6.00 a gallon for ethanol free (yikes !!)..last year in hovered around 3.25-3.65..hoping for under $3.00 this year at one of the few gas stations round here you can buy it at

  14. The GREEDway down the street held off at $1.749 until last evening sometime–likely until around two minutes to midnight, as the price/gallon didn’t have the “GREEDy Rewards” price mentioned in their app.

    Fortunately, I still have 200 Kroger points to use by the end of the month, and a half tank in the car, so I’m good for another week yet.

  15. Everyone at 1.99 except Costco/Sam’s and GetGo. GetGo at 1.71 minus 10c card discount…

    Interesting how GetGo has SINGLEHANDEDLY created an island of lower prices in Carmel… By largely refusing to play Speedway’s games.

  16. saturday afternoon..doing a bit of light yard work..come in check gas buddy and BANGGGGGGGG
    50c spike to 2.399 in places but its all over the place – seeing prices reported from 2.099 to 2.39 over a 30 mile raduius..lots of 2.19’s and 2.29’s

    so who can explain this one?

  17. We are seeing spike resistance in Cincinnati. Average area price is $1.880 right now. The last $1.999 spike had us up to $1.97+ in 48 hours. The West Side stations near me haven’t budged and even went down a couple of pennies. Even the two closest GREEDway stations around me had minimal price hikes but nowhere near $1.999, and today they dropped a little as well.

  18. think when i checked must have had gas buddy set to check mid grade as it looks like the 1.99 is holding in many places but are seeing some 2.099’s around – still the question on mid range price then is why when its 1.99 for regular everywhere does the ‘spread’ of mid range go from 2.15-2.35 – historically the premium grades used to be around 15c a gallon higher but that dosnt seem to be consistent between stations anymore?

  19. Yeah Turbo, made it over to Carmel on Saturday and Kroger/Turkey Hill was matching that $1.71 so with the 3 cents off topped off for $1.68. Looks like that is gone now as they topped off their tanks and rose 8 cents. Let’s hope now I can make it through the bump this week and hold off long enough to use my discount on a full tank next week, lol! As for premium scala, from what I’ve understood following Patrick for the past year, premium has been up (maybe due to blending components in the fuel) and therefore the grade gap has generally been 20 cents and could go even higher.

  20. Chicago, effective today, is trading 9.0lb spec material. Spot is down 3 cents. Usually with the switch there’s a pronounced bump.

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