Comment on my February 8 prediction: Prices fell for a few days, then rose a bit that Thursday, so I call this a PUSH.
Monday, February 29, 2016, 8:30PM: It is starting to look like gas and oil prices bottomed out on February 11, and stocks, too. Wholesale gas prices have practically doubled since then! There is enough scare in the markets to see them start “climbing the wall of worry” and to convince central bankers to try to goose the market up. We also know that gas prices usually rise the first four months of the year, and after a delay, I think we are back to SNAFU — situation normal, all …. Short-term, expect a price hike on Tuesday. Estimated new price: $1.89. — Ed A.
So are the days of sub $2 gas numbered in days, weeks, or months?
And how much does oil have to go up for us to see $3 a gallon again. I’m sure it would be 1/2 to 2/3 of what price we would expect it to be.
SNAFU: Situation Normal, All Fuel Up.
I think we’ll blow right past 1.89. My bet is 1.99 today and 2.09 by next week. Still a lot cheaper to fill my tank than it has been the last few years. So far anyway.
WE might get $1.999 today but my gut feeling is GREEDway will go for the gusto, $2.099.
I think GREEDway will wait a week on rolling out the 2’s. They don’t want to send the news outlets into a tizzy just yet.
$1.999 is a sure bet for Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia.
I’d say Big Red is itching to twist the knife a little harder. $2.19-$2.29 by the end of March. I hope in 6 to 7 months we can get it under $2 bucks again
So much for that 99-cent prediction….
Gas appears to be going to $1.89 in indiana, $1.99 in michigan and ohio courtesy of the Big Red machine. Fill ‘er up while you still can!
Another Tuesday, another GREEDway spike. $1.999 in Cincinnati.
..and there off..speedway to 1.999 Mansfield Ohio..
GREEDway spike to $1.899 in Indianapolis.
$1.99 underway (lead by Speedway) in Grand Rapids.
South Bend IN Speedway spike to $1.89. SBN avg was $1.61 before spike.
Niles MI Speedway to $1.99
Chris, might be good to get your facts correct: https://www.facebook.com/gasbuddy/photos/a.379373437872.196152.105159112872/10154047973677873/?type=3&theater
“there could be some US stations seeing 99ct gas soon!” and in the release (http://media.gasbuddy.com/NewsRelease/36/LowestGasPricesinFebruary92016): “we wouldn’t be shocked to see a few stations in these states as low as 99 cents a gallon.”
Well, just as it was called, a few stations (5) did drop to 99 cents in Midwest.
Five out of how many THOUSANDS of stations in those nine states?
Doesn’t even register as a percentage. Statistically insignificant. So, my facts are correct.
I stand by my original statement.
A percentage was never mentioned, so it’s not a “fact” but a made up assumption you had. It pays to read.
It DOES pay to read.
Feb 9th – “Midwest gasoline prices… wow. I just got goose bumps- 99 cent gas odds are increasing at rapid pace” – Sounds a lot like you were banking on more than FIVE stations hitting that mark.
The day after making your prediction, you backpedaled:
Feb 10th -“Odds of 99-cent #gasprices quickly slipping away. Midwest seeing market prices spike 18c/gal today (no solid justification IMO)”
So, if you weren’t expecting widespread 99-cent gas, why would you be so quick to change your tune?
No where was it guaranteed that X stations (a number that you seemingly get to pick) would see 99 cent gas. I’ll say it again- *odds* were increasing. No where was it stated that (74) or whatever gas stations would see 99 cents. Calm down.
What happened is that Tuesday, Chicago spot fell to 49 cents… add tax and it’s a recipe for widespread 99cent prices. Then suddenly Wednesday morning, refiners decided to act to cut production, and spot jumped 40c/gal in just days. Not once since the recession had refiners acted so swiftly to cut production. At the same time OPEC started talking output cuts. Unprecedented change of events.
All this is moot, however, as the (correct) prediction of some stations hitting 99 cents did take place just in time before prices then spiked. You need to realize that when we talk gas prices, we don’t talk about your local one station. Forecasts reach much further than your one local station. The U.S. has just a few gas stations after all 😉
Anything below $2.69 in Chicago is just fine, its bouncing up and down every day basically usually i can get gas for around $1.89 at Food4Less and or 1.99 at BP.. However i noticed shell, exxon and citgo and a few others are hovering around 2.16 a gallon (for regular)… also depends on what part of chicago you are in, depends on the gas prices here its quite odd however you can see a 20 cent difference in some places that are half mile from each other…
So… Refiners can agree to cut production and prop up price. Who would have thunk? And all these years we were told it is “market forces” and “demand” and “supply” that drive prices…
This begs the question. Why did the price fall to this level to begin with?
Yup–I believe the word is “collusion.”
Well, turbo. If you are making 100 widgets a day, then realize you are only selling 50, wouldn’t you cut production, too? Of course refineries will cut production if they have a surplus. See, market, supply, demand, at work again!
It’s fallen this low mostly because Saudi Arabia is not cutting production, and there is a glut of oil in the market. On top of that, it’s the time of year for the lowest gas prices as well. Historically, however, gas prices stat rising now and through summer. Hopefully we will be in the mid $2 range through the summer at the most.
The problem though, Bill, is that unlike “widgets”, the energy policy in the U.S. has concluded through many of our politicians and special interests (general motors influencing ripping out the streetcars, lobbying by highway contractors and oil companies, etc) that the only way to do transportation is through cars/highways. Especially here in the Indy metro, right Turbo? (let’s be honest- IndyGo is an example of how not to fund transit) Motor fuel has become a line item in the monthly budget just as water, electricity, housing, etc. Still not an issue now since still historically cheap with inflation, but to suggest that it is something you can just “do without” like whether to just not buy that widget or not is ridiculous. Just as gasoline doesn’t follow market forces and is artificially manipulated.
You will cut some production but the “market” responds in strange ways. We have seen that the mere mention of cuts, no matter how small, is used as an excuse to raise prices.
The whole point of having the commodities markets is to avoid wild fluctuations in prices of commodities. It is simply the opposite.
The problem is that everyone is trying to stick it to everyone else.
When crude was $147/bbl refiners lost a lot of money because they could not raise the price of gasoline to where they could make money. They were hit pretty badly and if I remember correctly some big vertically integrated oil companies spun off refining operations.
Back then we were told we need more refinong capacity after all the closings (per Senator Wyden’s report). So we build, consolidated, etc.
Now it’s the opposite. Refiners and retailets are driving the show regardless of what crude does. It’s not unusual to hike spot gasoline right when crude drops to “lock in the gains” 🙂
Meanwhile Speedway is using the proceeds to build new or upgrade existing stations to Taj Mahal specs, even when inside sales are dropping.
Look at GetGo and what it has done for the Carmel market… I haven’t filled up anywhere else since they opened.
Speedway waited until after 230-300 today to raise prices in Chicagoland to $1.99 and $2.09. A modestly tame hike if one ignores the 12 cents drop in RBOB spot price and likely 8-10¢ drop in wholesale that kicked in 2-3 hours after their hike. Since it doesn’t look like they hiked in other markets today (nobody posted such info here) the drop in CBOB spot of over 11 cent might keep other markets from a hike until Monday, or at least tomorrow.
Oil is approaching $36 dollars a barrel. I imagine the frackers will be starting up again soon
that big drop in spot yesterday shaved 6-7 c gallon off in the RT20 corridor so prices between 1.85-1.90 now already 10 cents or more below Tuesday’s spike
does anyone know if we are on summer blend yet (or just paying 50 cents a gallon more for winter?) I used to have a buick (now consigned to the scrap heap after its head gasket went at 250k miles) that would religiously pop on its check engine light for a few weeks after switching from winter to summer then back to winter blend – seem think it was like mid March and Mid september when it performed this trick
Passed a speedway in Greenwood that had spiked to $1.95 this morning. I’m hoping this is an anomaly because it was the only one.
couple stations at 1.799 this morning in RT20 Ohio corridor . awaiting todays spot price which will determine no doubt if the “1” in front of the price gets replaced with a “2” tomorrow…
Spot-pump spread in Ohio down to 65 cents. Time for Speedway to break out the 2’s.
$2.099 is coming.
I’m not sold on a hike, and even less sold on $2.09. Racks did not see massive jumps.
My cost rose 3c. I’d be surprised to see a hike as well.
No spike today in Cincinnati, at least not yet.
I may have been a day early.
Or maybe not. Spike to $2.099 is under way in Ohio.
Told you so…..
Or maybe not.
Instead of sorting by price, I hit the DIESEL tab.
Good grief. I’m going to crawl in this hole right here. 🙂
Not to worry ChrisDG74. You’ll be right on that $2.09…just not today lol
Gas going to $1.99 this morning per a speedway spike in MI/IN (including Indy). Haven’t seen evidence yet of an ohio spike but worth being on alert.
Yep, spiking now in South Bend IN and Niles MI to $1.99.
Yea well… 31.xx dollars a barrel for crude and spike to 1.99.
Can you say $3 gas for $40 crude in a couple months?
Add Kentucky to the spike list.
Both Louisville and Lexington are jumping to $1.999.
Nothing in Ohio yet.
I guess I was a day early and a dime short….
Muncie Indiana joining the $1.99 club. That means at least $2.09 next week. Crude is soaring once again today
Spot up 17.77 cents today. Problems with Wood River, IL refinery.
Wood River has been undergoing maintenance. You can thank the move to lower RVP. It’s here- 9.0lb RVP! And you’ll be paying more for it.
Crude is at $38.29 today. We haven’t had $31 crude since 2/23 (Indy had a $1.70 average at the time).
Patrick…
Well there’s scheduled maintenance, AND ”
Phillips 66 reported a release of sulfur dioxide due to a compressor glitch
at its 336,000 bpd Wood River, Illinois refinery in a filing with state
environmental regulators on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
“
The first number will be a 3 before you know it.
Jim,
I’ll just say that during scheduled maintenance, filings like the one $PSX reported are quite common and unless it’s something staggering, it really doesn’t do much since many expect the refinery to already be at diminished capacity.
The move today absolutely had the trademarks of those rushing to get whatever 13.5lb RVP was left and to take delivery ASAP before the move to 9.0lb spec. NYMEX was up 8ish cents, and Chicago basis jumped 6.5c or so on the flurry of last second buyers.
And Timm, averages in the Great Lakes didn’t hit $3/gal last year (though we saw $2.99 after BP’s August issue), so I’d be quite surprised if we see $2.99, or even $2.69, given the current environment.
FWIW- BP Whiting has a pretty major turnaround this autumn.
BP/Husky in Ohio and Husky in Ohio both have major turnarounds, so I could see some headaches in Ohio this spring.
well been topping up daily at 1.799 all week but I think thats the last of that given conditions this morning – expect a rapidly spreading 2.099 strting in Ohio this morning and more to come quickly if things dont settle down quickly