Comment on the January 25 prediction: 1/2 CORRECT (Marathon raised prices to $3.29 last Monday night and some stations followed), 1/2 WRONG (Speedway did not follow).
Sunday, February 2, 2025, 10 AM: I did not have on my bingo card that Speedway would become a hero for gas prices in 2025, but here we are. Twice in January, Marathon initiated a spike to $3.29 in west Michigan, only to have Speedway shrug. Other retailers, experts in the game of follow-the-leader, have been confused. I saw one of the K&G’s match Marathon, while another didn’t. A few Shells were quick to follow Big Blue. Meanwhile, gas is typically under $3 a gallon at Big Red today, as if they’ve decided to start competing with low-price-leader Costco instead.
So, it has been Big Blue vs. Big Red. Is there some hidden political meaning to it all?
That brings us to the new tariffs. The ones applied to Canada have the potential to put upward pressure on gas prices. I think more likely in the short term is that the narrative that “tariffs will bring higher prices” will give retailers permission to raise prices, even if the tariffs themselves don’t have a big effect on wholesale costs. And not just gasoline.
I am going to fill up today because I have no idea what is going to happen this week. -EA
For the reasons you stated, I will be filling up for the 3rd straight Sunday. The odd thing about the Marathon-Speedway pricing dynamic is I believe Marathon was contracted to supply gas to Speedway after they sold to 7-11
Ed and Jim- I have heard today from a CNN economist that oil pricing reacting to the tariffs would mean “an $.80 hike in prices at the pump.”
•In your best estimate to us common folk, how exactly would fuel be tariffed coming from Canada or is this just overall world market pressure or speculation on oil prices that would drive up pricing at the pump?
•Here in Michigan there is common knowledge about “line 5” that goes under the Mackinac Brdge, I assume that comes from Canada and is distributed to various refinery’s.
Would Michigan feel more of an effect based on its proximity to Ontario, Canada?
•Lastly I did hear an Ontario Canadian utility official say in December on a TV interview/discussion say that “if tariffs did come to light in January, as incoming President Trump has indicated, that electricity bills in Michigan would escalate as Michigan and New York have a heavy reliance on the current Canadian electricity grid system?” That has my eyes wide open more than a potential gas hike.
Patrick DeHaan posted what I had guess is holding a hike in abeyance. Two weeks from start of first drop in RVP toward summer blend and some refiners are overstocked. Spot (and Axxis wholesale which I usually use) are probably a significantly high estimate of cost. Juice-I can’t really answer any of your questions. However if there wasn’t an oversupply of winter fuel, I think we’d be 50-60c higher right now in the Chicago market.
What is weird is if I remember correctly, wholesale would show a dip during the end of winter blend. I guess this time it is more localized excessive inventories that are causing rack to dip? What is weird is the whole cycle market didn’t increase. Anyways, looks like NW Indiana Family Express is attempting for the 3rd time $3.29. Speedway’s reaction in Michigan City so far – drop another 5 cents.
Looks like Speedway finally decided to join, NW Indiana $3.29 spike actually happened.
Speedways up to $3.15 tonight (if they were previously below that) in NE IL. That’s a hike of 5-20c at most station.