Look for $3.39 soon — wait, it’s happening now!

Sunday, January 1, 2023, Noon: Happy New Year! We’re back for another year of trying to get ahead of retail gas price hikes. 2022 was one of the most dramatic years for prices, starting the year around $3 a gallon, soaring to $5.19 in early June, and then slowly but surely working their way back to around $3 last month. What comes next?

For one, today is the day of the annual uptick in Michigan’s gas tax, moving from 27.2 cents to 28.6 cents per gallon, and I have made the adjustment in my spreadsheet. As noted in this article, “In 2016, Michigan’s gas tax was 19 cents per gallon, but has been raised to provide more funding for roads and infrastructure.” I don’t know about where you live, but here in west Michigan, we’ve seen a lot of road renovations in the last two years, including in my neighborhood.

What about gas prices this week? We’ve seen a serious uptick in wholesale prices the past two weeks, matching a milder move higher in the price of oil. With the new tax rate, I am estimating the 0-cent margin price to be $3.16, and current prices are in the $3.05 to $3.19 range. So, that suggests a hike is on the way, to $3.39 or so.

And, oops, it looks like I wrote this post just a bit too late, with $3.39’s already appearing in Lowell and elsewhere, led by Marathon. OK, fill up as soon as you can! -EA

Updated: January 1, 2023 — 11:18 am


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  1. Seeing Shell stations in sw Ohio trying to push a jump to $3.299. Nothing from Big Red, yet. I’m sure they will join soon, to make it official.

  2. Big Red has joined in and done one better. $3.359 in sw Ohio. 20 cents above the rest of the state, apparently.

  3. Those Marathon stations are very likely owned by GPM, they own Admiral and Village Pantry among others and have been leading the price hikes for quite awhile.

  4. Indy area Speedway spike underway at $3.299.

  5. $3.299 reset in Toledo yesterday.

  6. $3.39/3.49 in Illinois, Although spot has dropped 12c in the last 2 days, this post-hike margin should be in the normal range, as opposed to the one 6 days ago which them close to break even. That’s in IL.

  7. The $3.359 reset is still slow in rolling in in Southwest Ohio.

    The Dent, Bridgetown and Western Hills on the West Side of Cincinnati, were the last section of town to get anywhere close to $3.00 and they were one of the first to reset.

  8. $3.59/3.69 yesterday in IL. 3rd hike in 2 week: $3.09 then $3.39 then $3.59. Yesterday’s wholesale was a dime above when the $3.09 hike occurred. To be fair, that $3.09 hike didn’t even get Speedway back to profitable in IL so, 2 lowball hikes and now one at traditional margins.

  9. Family Express attempting $3.49 in NW Indiana today.

  10. Indy area hiking to $3.459 today.

  11. South Bend IN $peedway $pike to $3.45 today. Up .30 for the 2 by ND.

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