Election Week Shenanigans?

Monday, November 7, 2022, 10AM: I am sorry I have been slow to post — I’ve been a bit busy. And so has the wholesale markets, in a way that continues to stoke our Midwestern aggravation. Conspiracy theorists might be wondering if someone is trying to affect the election tomorrow.

Here’s what I mean. Back to Tuesday, October 25th, and oil prices have been stable. The raw quote for Chicago CBOB was $2.90 a gallon, which corresponds to 0-cent margin price of $3.79. Retail prices had finally dropped below $4 in Michigan and nearby states, but still had room to drop by a few more dimes.

Then, we get a CBOB ramp up to $3.40 into the beginning of November, which prompted a retail hike on Thursday to $4.29. (Nothing obvious in the news to explain the ramp, like more refinery troubles.) But as soon as that hike is in place, CBOB drops back to $2.90. Do retail prices drop back below $4 this past weekend? Yeah, no. Meanwhile, our Gas Buddy posted this tweet yesterday, reporting that the national average is $3.78.

You have the right to remain annoyed. And unclear what is to blame. This is clearly a regional phenomenon, and not a national one. -EA

Updated: November 7, 2022 — 9:43 am


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  1. Hey Ed! Just a quick note, leaving out the protocol in your link to your edfored site forces a bad link (it uses current page URL + http://www.edfored.com to generate a url. You’ll need to add in https:// in front of it in order to fix it 🙂

  2. Kentucky looking better all the time. Gotta get away from the Chicago market to get a fair deal.

  3. Do have to wonder why this phenomenon seems to be unique to the Great Lakes region. There is little transparency as to any refinery troubles that develop and how they play out. After the Whiting fire a month or two ago supposedly all was back to normal. Then this sudden spike and 2 day collapse. Gadbuddyguy did mention talk that Whiting was at some output level below full due to a planned turnaround. But 2 days later that was no longer an issue. Any way, at this point, dealers that fill up every day or two are making a killing. But if their storage tanks are filled with gas from last Wednesday or Thursday they aren’t making any money.

  4. Wow, a few penny drop in prices in NW Indiana….mid $4.40s current cost….and wholesale costs are down 75 cents over the past couple of days. Thanks for the 3 penny drop 🙁

  5. Seems no one is in a hurry to come down at the pump, anywhere. Cincy average is still $3.87, $1.25 over spot.

  6. South Bend IN avg is $3.93. Down from $4.12 a week ago. Costco the lowest at $3.69. A bunch at $3.75.

    Niles MI $3.93-$4.04.

  7. I’m calling Shenanigans. Spot at $2.316, and retail still $3.79 in sw Ohio. Someone is making a KILLING.

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