Volatility, as Predicted

Comment on the June 28 prediction: With no hike over the 4th of July weekend, the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, July 6, 2022, 10AM: You may have heard that oil prices took a hit on Tuesday, with wholesale gas prices following, and we have been in a new downtrend for a month. Yes, retail prices have been slow to react, particularly compared to that week a month ago where we saw three 20-cent hikes in five days. But, knowing that based on our calculations, we have room today for prices to get down near $4 a gallon in the Midwest, you don’t want to be in any rush to fill the tank this week.

Yesterday’s move is consistent with our observation last week to expect price volatility to continue. With the way energy markets are currently configured, we end up with big moves up-and-down in prices of oil and gasoline. Some traders are getting rich and others are losing their shirts, while consumers like us are paying too much and also getting whiplash from price moves.

My hope: By the end of the summer, we get some stability below $4 a gallon. -EA

Updated: July 6, 2022 — 9:59 am


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  1. It’s a new Speedway for sure. Speedway near m e, in response to yesterday’s 38c drop on wholesale. raised their price a penny today even though they were already making large profits due to being slow to lower prices. Most near me are no longer matching the nearby competition.

  2. Assuming CBOB follows RBOB, it should be under $3.30, yet the average in sw Ohio is still $4.85.

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