Are the energy markets broken again?

Sunday, March 6, 2022, 5PM: First, let’s review some highlights from my February postings. “$100 has to be next.” “Short-term, we’ll see gas prices up a dime from the previous hike, over-and-over, until we don’t.” “Tell me what happens next with the war in Ukraine, and I will tell you [what’s next for gas prices].” Sadly, this is what has happened.

This past week, with prices here in west Michigan, we saw prices going $3.49 -> $3.59 -> $3.79 -> $3.89. Over the weekend, south of Grand Rapids along US-131 or I-94, I saw $3.99, $4.09, and even $4.25 in Wayland, while oil closed Friday over $115. I am starting to wonder if, like two years ago, the energy markets are broken again. Back then, in the first month of major COVID restrictions, because so many traders were caught holding oil on paper, we had a day where the price of oil was negative, which meant, “I will pay you to take delivery of this oil”. Although the Ukraine-Russia news continues to be awful, I am wondering if we have something similar going on, but in the opposite direction, killing short sellers. “I will pay whatever you want for you to give me some oil, to balance my trading books.”

Since the war has not disrupted supplies in the U.S., as far as I know, there should be an adjustment downward once certain traders have been liquidated. The same goes for wholesale gas prices, which are insane right now. In the end, though, who pays for all this? We do.

We may see $4.25 broadly on Monday, but I predict we don’t go higher than that this week. Fill up this evening for $3.85. -EA

 

Updated: March 6, 2022 — 5:15 pm

14 Comments

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  1. WAY too much speculation in the markets…….

  2. $4.39 in NW Indiana led by Family Express

  3. $4.25 Anderson and Muncie Indiana

  4. The Lansing area went to $4.25 today.

    Has anyone bought REC fuel in mid-Michigan recently? I’m wondering what those prices look like right now.

  5. $4.099 in Toledo today across the board.

  6. Saturday to $4.39, Monday to the expected $4.59 in Chicagoland

  7. Massive selloff as crude drops 12-12.5%. Hope this slows down the spike-o-mania at the pumps.

  8. The spoke at the pump wasn’t that bad when compared to the spike at the loading rack :0

  9. Spot price in Chicago down 31c today. Diesel spot down 88c!! While that was happening a couple Speedways near me raised prices 3c but most are still sitting at $4.59. I wouldn’t expect any hike for the next day or two but volatility goes both ways.

  10. A 31c drop in spot should slow (stop!) the Speedway hikes for a bit. They did raise a couple near me from $4.59 to 4.62 today though

  11. Don’t hold your breath. Everything is shooting back up this morning.

  12. After another sell off day yesterday which had Crude down to just over $101/bbl it is beginning the morning -8% at less than $95/bbl. We better start seeing more 3s and disappearing 4s.

  13. I wouldn’t hold my breath, Bearcat. April CBOB closed 17 cents HIGHER than March yesterday.

  14. March futures seem to have disappeared today from the CME site where I normally get them. I thought they traded until month’s end. But all futures are plunging big time today. Chicago wholesale was down 11c today. I’d say the trend should be down for a while, of course subject to the whims of Vladimir Putin.

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