Time for a St. Patrick’s Day Sale on Gas Prices

Comment on the March 6 prediction: As expected, prices did jump to $4.25 on Monday the 7th, and then there were no more hikes. CORRECT.

Thursday, March 17, 2022, 8AM: Our “broken market” hypothesis seems to have some merit, as oil prices continued their spike last week, closing at nearly $124 a barrel on the 8th. That probably cleared out the “short sellers” and others who were not positioned responsibly in the market, and since the 8th, energy prices have been trying to find an equilibrium point, which is lower. Yesterday, oil closed below $100 a barrel, although it is higher again this morning.

Gas prices, meanwhile, have been playing their up-fast-down-slow game. To be fair, the $4.25’s was consistent with the spike the retailers faced more than a week ago from those trucks that fill up the underground tanks, but with lower oil prices, wholesale gas prices (my “0-cent margin price”) is in the 3.70’s this morning. As usual, Costco has read the memo first, and they are at $3.99. Basically, if you are paying $4.25, you are paying too much. Sparta and Jenison are good places to fill up today, and I don’t expect any price resets higher for several days.

The market appears to have adjusted now to the Ukraine war. -EA

Updated: March 17, 2022 — 7:51 am

10 Comments

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  1. Oil “surging” on supply warnings now. Up 6%, with RBOB up 15 cents thus morning.

  2. Here’s a term I have never heard before, “Rockets and feathers”:

    https://jalopnik.com/gas-price-watch-president-joe-biden-wants-prices-to-co-1848660055

  3. I’ve always heard “spike and feather”.

  4. Been 2 weeks since the last hike. In a normal March that’s probably a stretch with the normal rise as summer blend phases in.. After a 13c rise in spot today we should be ready for a return to $4.59 in Chicagoland.

  5. $4.299 or $4.399 coming to Ohio in the next day or so.

  6. $4.49 in NW Indiana led by Family Express

  7. South Bend IN – Family Express spike $4.39. I think they were $4.09.
    Time to visit Costco for $3.89!

  8. It’s the season to stick it to Chicago-Milwaukee Spot blend which is now 9c over the price for outside that EPA requirement area and is up 50c in two weeks (since the last hike). Expecting to see $4.75 tomorrow in the collar counties of Chicago.

  9. Another interesting gas price article:

    https://jalopnik.com/two-gas-stations-sue-their-competitor-because-its-price-1848692144

    This is especially interesting for the link to the “Unfair Sales Price” law in Wisconsin:

    https://datcp.wi.gov/Pages/Programs_Services/UnfairSalesAct.aspx

    Which includes a link to a spreadsheet on figuring out that fair sales price:

    https://datcp.wi.gov/Documents/USARetailMVFCalculator.xlsx

  10. paxman356
    The site I use for “Chicago wholesale” exists soley to provide information freely available to Wisconsin (officials. station owners) to ensure compliance with this law.

    http://old.axxispetro.com/download/wisconsin-cta.txt

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