Maybe this will get more interesting after the election

Comment on the October 3 prediction:  It was CORRECT.

Monday, October 17, 2016, 8:30AM:  Although oil has been up this month, gas prices have remained flat.  I suspect that we have some seasonality factors kicking in, as we tend to see lower prices during the latter part of autumn.  Here’s this weekend’s calculation:  Chicago CBOB is about $1.40, and ethanol is about $1.60, with the blend a typical 90/10 split.  Throw in all the taxes, and that puts the 0-margin price at about $2.12.  I saw that price near Holland and Wyoming yesterday, but we still are in the $2.20’s at most stations in the Grand Rapids area.  So, I think we are good for a few days, but I suspect a price reset would come along on Thursday.  That’s a prediction.

Note to “CMU Pitcher”:  the new Michigan gas tax law doesn’t kick in until 2017.  More details as we get closer. — Ed A.

Updated: October 17, 2016 — 8:27 am


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  1. NW RT20 ohio corridor seen some big falls since end last week..down to 2.099 in places
    If the ‘spike’ formula is correct this morning still about 10c over this, so still a bit to fall all being steady
    some other areas not so fast falling..up to 16c differences between towns 2.099 against 2.259
    making sure where to fill up on the commute

  2. Interesting – gas in Rockford, Michigan went from $2.22 yesterday morning to $2.02 by 5:00 p.m. That NEVER happens there (as a rule).

  3. 1.999 popping up in Fairfield, Ohio. Average STILL $2.14.

  4. I’m amazed spot is still dropping (down to $1.32 today) considering what crude is doing. I’ve been filling up with $1.89 gas for the last week as well

  5. Chris…It’s fall. CHicago spot always improves (price drops) relative to NYMEX RBOB spot this time of year. Discount is now 19 cents…a month or two ago there was a premium.

  6. Not sure why but Chicago spot gained 7 cents vs NYMEX today and 10.77 cents overall today. Heads up!

  7. I think Greedway is trying, at least in the southern part of Indiana. Along I-74, Love’s $1.84, Pilot $1.84, Speedway $2.25.

  8. Good question Jim. Massive unexpected builds in gasoline on Wednesday, despite refinery utilization of only 85%. Makes one wonder, doesn’t it?

  9. Just got a GasBuddy alert here in Indy. Prices going up between 26¢ and, I kid you not, 46¢! That’s 25%! Why? Because they can.

  10. South Bend IN – spiking to $2.25. SBN avg was 2.028. I thought it would be happening soon after seeing a few Speedways dropping below $2.

    Granger Costco $1.87

  11. filled up at 1.929 today NW ohio corridor..prices started to dip below $2.00 friday, but given the big jump in spot friday cant see sub $2.00 lasting too long. Think it might be back to 2.299 by midday monday

  12. Not sure whether Speedway hiked yesterday – since I only looked at a few nearby stations that were way down & still hadn’t risen at 8 am today while the rest had – or overnight. But if it was overnight, that’s the first Sunday hike I’ve seen in well over 10 years of watching the Chicago market. Maybe we will learn more about the reason behund the large jump in Chicago spot with the new trading week.

  13. I used a 10 cent Kroger discount tonight and filled up everything I have for $1.80

  14. $2.199 in sw Ohio.
    Thought it would be $2.299.

  15. Based upon what I see on GasBuddy, it looks like mid-Michigan might be spiking to 2.199.

  16. $2.19 in West Michigan, too!

  17. Spot has erased nearly half of Friday’s 10 cent jump, dropping back down to $1.36 at mid-day. I guess Big Red is “feeling sorry” for you in Cincinnati ChrisDG74 “only” jumping to $2.19.

    I still have several $1.89’s in the area to fill up at for now

  18. I’m good. I cashed in my remaining 400 Kroger points yesterday. Filled up both cars (26 gallons) at $1.41/gallon.

  19. going to 2.199 NW ohio corridor also – in some areas thats actually a 3c drop – will they “spike down” I wonder ?
    most other areas crept under $2.00 friday and that lasted…er 48 hours or so

  20. Chris…
    The final # shows spot getting another penny closer to NYMEX. Must be some disruption of supply in the CHicago market.

  21. Prices still remaining “Stable” as per GB for the east Ann Arbor area. The range, throwing out one high and low, is $1.95 – $2.07. Average is $2.17.
    MI avg is $2.15 and “Rising”.

  22. Still 17-18 stations at or below 2.09 on the south side of Grand Rapids this evening. Tried to top off at Speedway but it was too crowded, ended up across the street at the Marathon for 2.02.

  23. Nice to see the local chain (United Dairy Farmers/UDF) giving Speedway the finger. All 4 along my commute refused to spike and have DROPPED since Monday. All are 1.97-1.99, and have forced the neighboring Speedways to come back down.

    Also, GREEDway has gone to a 30 cent spread between grades in KY and IN. I would imagine it will spread.

  24. OK, $1.89 in Fort Wayne on Sunday, $2.25 on Monday and multiple stations across town at $1.98 on Thursday. I’ll never get it, will I?

  25. $1.97 gas on the south side of Grand Rapids, still $2.19 to the north.

  26. The aforementioned stations are now $1.939-$1.949. Might see $1.899 by Monday.

  27. Drove to Delaware, OH this past weekend for a dog show. $2.05 seemed to be the prevailing price. Waited to get home to MI to fill up at $1.92.

  28. a few places in NW ohio rt 20 corridor crept back below $2.00 over the weekend especially mansfield/norwalk/sandusky areas

    lots other places a few pennies over $2.00 this afternoon

    given the big drop in oil prices today, if spot prices fall similar can see a general sub $2.00 spread in next few days..or maybe not

  29. Spot was down 3.5 cents today. Speedway’s most recent hike the weekend before last flopped here, so we are back at the hike point again in Chicagoland despite the drop in spot.

  30. Here in Louisville ky gas yesterday was 1.98 at 7p.m it jumped to 2.38

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