Game Reset

Comment on the April 9 prediction and recent price action:  We were CORRECT on April 9 about that hike, but my spreadsheet calculations have been out of alignment since then, and I missed both the April 20 and today’s hikes.  WRONG and WRONG.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016, 3:00PM:  $2.39 here in Grand Rapids, today — ouch!  Sorry that I haven’t been able to help with predictions, but my calculations have been off.  I spent time this afternoon reviewing my spreadsheet and revising calculations based on RBOB inputs, and it seems to backtest well.  At least looking at the past few months.  Now, why do prices keep going up?  I think it is fair to say that wholesale oil and gas prices were artificially low this winter, and I still blame that on the blowup of Glencore.  At this point, $2.99 this summer won’t surprise me. –Ed A.

Updated: April 27, 2016 — 3:04 pm


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  1. You may have claimed to miss the last two spikes Ed, but just checking in here a few times a week has allowed me to tank up paying pre-spike prices both times. I still give you a pat on the back!

    With margins increasing (at least it sure seems like they are), $2.99 is highly possible. The way it’s going now just another 30-40 cent bump up in spot and there we have $2.99 staring at us

  2. Chris, you should thank Bill, who keeps that data up to date!

  3. Thanks to all of you!

  4. It doesn’t really matter, we’ll be around $50 crude and $3.00 gas, and nobody will ever wonder how we managed $100 crude, or even near $150 crude.

    The only saving grace is that the free-flow of excuses for the disconnect between crude and gasoline has slowed down considerably.

    The other thing is that large cars are for the most part off the roads those days. Driving a Honda Fit tends to remind one of this, and there’s a lot fewer ginormous SUV’s and such on the roads those days. Or so it seems to me. So, anyhow, we seem to have accepted that gasoline will march back to $3.00, we all bought more economical cars, so let’er rip. To go from $1.29 to $3.00 in a few months would have raised a few eyebrows in the past, but now it seems to not shock people.

  5. Current Indiana gas price average is just 15 cents below where it was at this time last year. For some reason it seems to have climbed quicker this year, especially considering how low prices were after the first part of 2016. In February I tanked up in Crawfordsville for $1.19. Not even three months later I’m seeing prices that have doubled. Hoping the brakes get applied soon

  6. 22 cents over the spike line? But remember, they only make a few pennies on a gallon.

    If you remove the fixed costs, they’re trying to claim the wholesale prices have risen over $1 a gallon? Find that hard d to believe. Thank goodness school is over in less than a month and the bike is almost ready to go. The low mileage cars will be running a lot fewer miles over the next 2 1/2 months. I can’t get them back that much, but if I don’t stop for gas, then I’m not buying anything inside their stores either

  7. And right back down 12 cents the day after. It should be criminal.

  8. I managed to find one station out near I-469/US30 near New Haven late Friday night still hanging onto $2.07. Prices do seem to be dropping back somewhat quickly, but I’m worried they’ll drop back too quick so Big Red can test out a $2.49 spike this week

  9. GasBuddy showing the Meijer in Lima, Ohio at $2.55. (It seems Lima usually foreshadows the Fort Wayne area by a couple days) Any thoughts/theories/guesses? I see oil down about 3% today as Russia and Iran have more than made up for any cuts in US production. And Saudi is saying they can live with $30 oil.

  10. Such drops in crude often coincide with spikes to “lock in” gains…

  11. couple 2.199 on way home tonight in rt 20 corridor..with oil drifting down and the margin still around 15c think still got a little ways to fall this week.

    will we get the 2.499 spike this week?..maybe not if all things stay equal..maybe just back to 2.399 beginning next week

    3 weeks to Memorial day weekend to hold on tight..will we beat the 2.799 price last year at same time?.looking close right now

  12. Wouldn’t be surprised if Big Red decides to go for the mega 40 cent plus spike on Thursday May 26th to push us to $2.89. All this even with spot around $1.50 and crude around $44. Their execs probably want to get the catamarans out and about

  13. Will the wildfires near Fort McMurray burning the area and evacuating everyone, wouldn’t be surprised, assuming it causes tar sands oil disruption downstream

  14. something not quite right here..just seen a 1.99 rt 20 corridor ohio..thought that was the last of that for at least 6 months…

    spot is drifting around 1.40 so does make some sense..but its May..the month of skyrocketing prices

    assuming we dont get a cheeky weekend spike..for which there is no justification at all right now looks like 2.299-2.359 next round next week maybe??..20c below what many (including me) predicted

    just won 25c off with the BP rewards scratch n all in all 30c gallon there discount..but right now I will keep topping up every other day at current prices and save that one….

  15. We’ve actually dropped 34 cents since the last spike. I’m surprised too that spot has been pretty stable and I hope it remains that way. Could Memorial Day be last year’s Labor Day in which we had no spike(a rarity indeed)? I doubt it, but it would be nice

  16. Paid $1.939 at the local UDF today, the going price in Fairfield, Ohio.
    $2.399?? Yeah right.

  17. Perfect example of Speedway’s arrogance:

    The UDF and Kroger where I got gas are both $1.939, along with about 5-6 other stations within 2 miles.
    The Speedway, one block north, is $2.259.
    And they wonder why we call the “Greedway”….

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