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Making the Game More Difficult to Play

Commentary Predictions

Comment on the March 28 prediction:  For the most part, CORRECT, as prices rose as predicted, but up to $2.19, not just $2.09.

Saturday, April 9, 2016, 9:00AM:  Maybe it is karma for my “We know exactly what we’re doing” snark on March 28, but this week, many of the freely-available sources that The Gas Game uses to monitor wholesale prices in the Midwest went dark, at least temporarily.  We can always keep an eye on the publicly-traded futures contracts in New York, and there other tricks we have to try to track these prices, but they are less exact and less reliable.  But we’ll do the best we can going forward, and with oil prices shooting up on Friday, it is clear so did wholesale gas prices.  Looks like the station I track in Fort Wayne jumped up to $2.09 sometime in the past 16 hours, and there are reports that Ohio went up to $2.09 on Thursday.  So it is clear that a price reset is coming in Michigan and other Big Red states.  Figure that we are heading back to $2.19 either today (Saturday!) or on Monday. –Ed A.

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63 thoughts on “Making the Game More Difficult to Play”

  1. Ann Arbor area had been trending slightly downward even as prices reset all around the state borders. Could this be the small bone they are throwing us before we get hit over the head with the big one?

  2. I have no idea what spot has been doing the last couple days, but the town next door just a 44 cent spike. Surely they’d give us a few more days before twisting the knife a little harder, but this is Big Red we’re talking about

  3. Thursday was the GREEDway to $2.099; Friday many followed the memo price to $2.099 & today many of those stations including some GREEDways backed it down to $1.999.

  4. Gas Buddy is reporting Ohio prices as “stable” this morning – thats usually code word for its about to go up

    prices rt20 ohio corridor around 2.03-2.07 right now

    question is will it be 2.19 or 2.29 this week?

  6. Some Speedways resetting to $2.199 in sw Ohio.
    Slow-rolling so far
    Topped off for $1.899 on the way in.
    Speedway, guess which finger I’m holding up….

  10. I could have bet this was going to happen. The radio all morning was playing the tune of how Indiana was 5¢ below the national average. Time to play catch up and beat the average again.

  12. Jim found the same source I did. For CBOB, you have to add what you see on the most recent contract to the RBOB Futures from NY. I haven’t found Chicago RBOB, but I found all the other data I use there, and will post them as soon as I can every day.

  13. The spike avoided Cincinnati proper so far.
    Right up the road(as soon as you leave Hamilton County), though, in Monroe, Mason, West Chester, etc, all spiked to $2.199.

  15. On a day when several Fort Wayne area stations bounced back below the $2 level, my “hometown convenience store” reminds us of how they used to screw us first. Lassus Brothers showing $2.19.

  17. Yes, Rufus, Lassus learned from big red and for almost a year now I’ve noticed them being first, as if begging Speedway to hurry up.

  18. Surprised more companies across the US don’t use the Greedway pricing scheme at the pumps. We’re well on the way to $2.59-$2.69 for Memorial Day weekend with this 2 for 1 special “double banger” spike in less than a week

  19. The Kroger station I use jumped from $1.819 yesterday to $2.199 today. The station is in close proximity to Greedway and follows their jump in pricing. >_< SIGH

  21. Much of Cincinnati has resisted the $2.199 so far.

    This morning on the West side near where I live is a lone BP at I74 that spiked. The GREEDway close by rose to $2.099 as did a few other stations. The rest are at pre-spike levels.

    Today should be the day to indicate whether the spike will take hold and judging by recent history it doesn’t look good.

  22. back down to 2.099 ashland ohio this evening – its a ‘non speedway’ town

    10c gallon accumulated BP rewards from topping off daily last week

    still to pay over 1.99 a gallon this year !!

  25. Jeff, whatever bodes worse for us.

    There is something in the gasoline “pipeline” someplace. The truck stop in Fort Wayne most always has diesel for interstate truckers at 20¢ over the most seen regular gasoline prices. Today, their diesel is 20¢ UNDER gasoline. There is 40¢ someplace that’s not my wallet.

  26. Some stations that hit $2.15-$2.19 have already dropped back to the $1.95 range. Although spot has been flat the last few days, I wonder if they’ll attempt to ramp it up to $2.29 this coming week?

  29. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Ann Arbor gas prices are mainly running $2.05-$2.09 with a very small handful selling at $1.99.

  30. There is a “Nu-Vu” fuel station going in on the corner of Myers Lake Ave and 10 Mile in Rockford. The only other Nu Vu station I’ve found is in Ionia. Anybody know anything about these guys?

  31. According to GasBuddy Whiting BP and Wood River refineries have been undergoing maintenance. An acquaintance of mine, an engineer at Exxon Mobil is soon to start 30 days of 12 hrs off, 12 hrs on. Assume this is another maintenance situation. So the refined fuel market will be tight…and respond sharply to any unplanned outages.

  32. Speedway is pulling the trigger throughout Indy/Most of Indiana/Ohio this morning, with reset price going to $2.25. Nothing yet in Michigan, but I’d be on alert and expect it either today still or tomorrow.

  38. Not 2.29… How sweet of them. I’ll drink a Speedway slurpee to their honor and good intentions 🙂

  39. So, with this spike to $2.259, stations near me are up $1 since Valentine’s Day.
    Ohio, as a whole is up 91 cents since then. Gasbuddy was reporting average price of $1.34.

  40. Either The Bid Red execs must be having their annual get together in Fiji this summer or spot cracked the $1.50 mark (hell it could be both) Another 30 cent gas price increase which will play right into the $2.59-$2.69 mark for the final weekend in May (I believe it coincides with a holiday weekend lol)

  41. The spike has not hit Hamilton County, Ohio yet. Last week, it took 2 full days for it to engulf the I-275 loop. Will see what happens today.
    Topped of for $1.969(cheapest on the commute) this morning, to be safe.

  42. You can run from Big Red ChrisDG74, but you can’t hide. Get those gas cans topped off too! Spot closed yesterday at $1.39, so it is just Big Red padding the margins for their Fiji trip. Must be nice to have all that power

  43. It has to be Big Red increasing margins. Lassus was not doing their usual ASK, by posting the jump prior to Speedway.

  46. Hope I didn’t jinx this but it is looking more like we have spike resistance in the Cincinnati market. The GREEDway I most frequently pass by is still at $2.259 as reset on Wednesday. Outside of that GREEDway’s two nearby minions and a BP about four miles away I see no West Side stations matching the memo price and the shelf life for this spike may be passing.

  47. 2.099 going rate round nw ohio right now

    the streak is over however..on trip to SW ohio friday/saturday paid 2.159 near Dayton..couldnt find a BP to use the 20c gallon reward I currently have so paid over $2 a gallon for first time since..cant remember(prob around end septemeber last year)

    a month from memorial day..all things being equal right now hoping we wont get much over $2.50 a gallon for the traditional yearly peak (2.799 I recall last year)

  48. Spike failed miserably so far in Fairfield, Ohio. Prices have come DOWN 10 cents since the spike attempt. Filled up both cars for $1.459/gallon ($1.959-500 Kroger points).

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