Monday, March 16, 2015, 6:30PM: And there we go, as Chicago wholesale prices jump 14 cents today, and we move into price hike territory. A hike to at least $2.49 on Tuesday is more likely than Kentucky winning the NCAA’s. — Ed A.
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Why We Are Here
We enjoy predicting and trying to further our knowledge in the gasoline and oil industry. Our ultimate goal is to "win" the game of price hikes and to accurately predict hikes.
Current Contributors:
Ed A.: ab...@gvsu.edu
Craig P.: cr...@paull.net
Tim S.: ts...@gmail.com
Bill E.: pa...@yahoo.com
The name of the site is based off an essay Ed wrote for the Grand Rapids Press titled "The Gas Game". The current website was established later by Patrick DeHaan after he and Ed predicted gas price hikes on GasBuddy's website GrandRapidsGasPrices.com, as well as Ed’s personal web page.
Note: To be precise, add 9/10 of a cent to all prices described on this web page.
Current Contributors:
Ed A.: ab...@gvsu.edu
Craig P.: cr...@paull.net
Tim S.: ts...@gmail.com
Bill E.: pa...@yahoo.com
The name of the site is based off an essay Ed wrote for the Grand Rapids Press titled "The Gas Game". The current website was established later by Patrick DeHaan after he and Ed predicted gas price hikes on GasBuddy's website GrandRapidsGasPrices.com, as well as Ed’s personal web page.
Note: To be precise, add 9/10 of a cent to all prices described on this web page.
Just so everyone knows, the jump comes as we switch from April to May futures, and May had been tracking higher for quite a while.
Bill…
Most of the hike in CBOB and RBOB was attributed in the report I read to the roll over to actual spot product now being summer blend. The DTN headline today “Midwest Oil Products DN, Chicago CBOB Soars on Spec Change” (from winter to summer). Reference futures according to that report FELL today. I thought the futures basis change occurred nearer the end of the month.
2.399 in Ohio underway.
I’m sure Indiana will follow in the next few hours. Oil is down about 2% so far today. When the Whiting refinery gets back up to speed, perhaps Spot will start dropping
Looks like $2.399 is the mark for the day, at least here in Indianapolis.
South Bend IN – Speedway spike to $2.39 underway. Hit Ireland Road or Costco for $1.98-1.99 while you can. $2.10’s most places for now.
$2.49 in Michigan today.
2.49 in Kzoo area now..
$2.49 in NW Indiana
Chicago CBOB up another 11c/gal today.
The gas stationed I filled up at the other day in Lafayette went up 48 cents a gallon to $2.39. I would not be surprised with the volatility this week to see a second spike on Saturday to the $2.59 range
speedway spike has begun to appear in Flint, 1.98 Kroger gas is still available in Mt. Morris on N. Saginaw.
Chicago CBOB closed up 14c/gal. I wonder if we see a rare double hike week… and geez, its only Tuesday.
Not taking the other side here, but I thought they would have hiked last week, then this week. But I agree, it now looks like twice this week. So now its back above the USA average, we go waaaaaay up while the US average was just rounding the curve headed down.
RBOB was up over 36 cents! But closed only 8 cents under premium. Either the former #s is wrong, or the refinery issue has cut off production of regular grade RBOB. If the #s are right today’s hike to $2.49 in Chicagoland is probably just a drop in thye bucket compared to what’s coming in the next days.
I think it was about 12-18 months ago when a refinery issue popped up and Michigan & Indiana had some of the highest gas prices in the nation. Looks as though my $2.59 prediction for Saturday needs to go up to about $2.79-$2.89 the way the spike line is shaping up.
Hope your Fit is filled up Turbo!
The report I have is that CBOB was up another 15 cents today. I was asked if we’ll see another hike on Wednesday (to $2.65), and my best guess is that they’ll wait until Thursday.
Turbo is in Chicago as we speak – fed the Fit at Costco Merrillville 🙂
Waved an appendage or two at Whiting too lolz.
Ed…Yup. And the Chicago RBOB quote was $2.05/gallon… 27 1/2 cents over CBOB after being just 6 cents over in recent days!!
We’ll see what the EIA report brings tomorrow and whether we get any firm info on that “flaring” at the Exxon Mobil refinery in Joliet. The EIA will probably be a broken record – crude inventories up, product inventories down.
See the refinery status map shows a major problem now with the Exxon refinery in Joliet. $4.00 gas on the horizon?
If I was sick and took off work as often as a mid west refinery is down and out, I’d be fired often. We just can’t catch a long term break. I don’t know about $4, but $3.59 sure sees possible, with the rest of the US at $2.09 in a couple weeks. Gotta Love it!
a.) A refinery has more moving parts than you do. 😉
b.) When the refinery isn’t producing, they aren’t getting paid.
c.) There’s no way the Midwest will be $1.50 higher than the rest of the US.
REN:
a) Counting bones, you are right. But all the moving parts in a body? You never appreciated a good A&P book then.
b) The statement is still true.
c) I hope you are correct. I home I am not. But it is not completely out of the realm of possibility giving we went up 40 cents yesterday, and could go up another 20 to 30 tomorrow, and the rest of the US goes down slow and steady for a couple weeks while we hang high with out gasolene shortage while there is an overall crude glut.
Sorry for my typing errors. Small meyboard on my tablet.
Timm,
You realize that long term (beyond a week or so) we will never get to that point. Because the way that it works, eventually another region will ship some gasoline via pipeline to cover the shortage (and in some cases make a nice profit margin off of it). You better believe the working refineries are going to be running full out if possible to make that a reality with oil this low.
$3/gal gas is about as likely as $5/gas was a few years ago. It’s crazy talk. This is all about refineries, and unless there’s a massive physical shortage, we won’t see $3.
Having said that, PROPS TO THE FED today… for causing oil prices to reverse, leading RBOB futures and spot prices rising 5-8c/gal AGAIN.
Thursday hike? We’ll see. $2.55-$2.65 is possible. All of that 20c/gal margin they had after yesterday’s hike (which was based on Monday’s closing spot price) is gone.
Timm, I checked a few cities, and the spike raised the average 25 cents in the region. So saying it spiked by 40 cents misses by 60%.
25 cents is pretty large for a spike though, in recent years.
Well, shoot. Chicago CBOB wholesale is up yet again, another 6.9 cents to $1.85/gal. Now taking odds on whether we spike tomorrow or Friday…
We might see $2.699 in Ohio then, sending the AVERAGE up 50 cents in 48 hours.
smh
Citgo Lemont has also had issue that might have made the market jittery.