Missed Hikes in May Suggest A Grab For Higher Profits

Comment the April 30 prediction and May action:  Although the original prediction was CORRECT, we have had two price resets on the 10th and the 18th that I have completely missed, hence WRONG.

May 20, 2017, 5:00PM:  Suddenly, our game strategy isn’t working.  The price hikes in May have both come with retail prices at least 15 cents away from where I would predict a hike was coming.  The first hike was rather mild — 9 cents in Michigan on the 10th.  The second one this week was a more intense — 17 cents.  Based on the new prices, it looks like Big Red and his friends are trying to move the window to better margins.  Maybe this will work this time, but in past years, ye old Gas Game kicks back in after a while.  Nevertheless, we’ll have to be more alert this summer and a bit quicker to fill up.  Of course, that’s just what they want. — Ed A.

The Spike Line Calculation Adjustment

Two sharp-eyed readers recently commented that the results showing in The Spike Line didn’t match what they calculated using the formulas shown on the page, and those in turn skewed what was showing in the charts. Their comments spurred me to take a look at the spreadsheet that I update daily and underpins what you see on both “The Spike Line” and “Today in Oil” pages. As it turns out, the readers were correct – there were some deviations between the calculations in the spreadsheet and the displayed formulas.

The differences were not dramatic; the actual variances were between roughly 1 and 3 cents. That was enough, though, to throw off when the numbers and charts predicted a spike. I’ve since adjusted the spreadsheet calculations to match the formulas, so anyone doing the math should be reaching the same result. Ohio was not affected, as the formula and calculation matched.

Thanks for following The Gas Game and letting us know! -CP

Game Plan For Cinco De Mayo

Comment on March 27 and April:  The March 27 prediction was CORRECT, as we got a price hike.  I’ve been quiet during April, missing two price hikes.  For the second one on April 19, margins seemed high enough that we would avoid a hike.  But score me WRONG.

April 30, 2017, 12 Noon:  I’m not sure what that hike was about on April 19, but since then, wholesale prices have slipped by a dime.  As of today, we aren’t even close to price hike territory, with Michigan prices in the $2.40’s.  So, don’t be in a rush to fill up this week, unless you need to. -EA

Holding Pattern Around the Spike Line Broken Today

Good bump in spot price today. The nearly 6 cent jump put Ohio and Indiana solidly below the Spike Line. Thinking a Good Friday spike is looking likely for Ohio and Indiana. Michigan is in better shape and may avoid a hike tomorrow. Tonight or tomorrow morning would be a good time to fill ‘er up or top it off.  Best wishes to you all for a Happy Easter!  Save travels to those of you on the road.  – TS

March to leave like a lion?

Comment on the March 21 prediction:  No hike in a week, so CORRECT.

Monday, March 27, 2017, 7:30PM:  I’ll keep this short: uh, oh.  A bad report from Chicago tonight on CBOB prices, so we are set for a price hike on Tuesday.  $2.49 in Michigan?  -EA

You Know You Want To Go Lower, Mr. Gas Price

Comment on the March 11 prediction:  Prices did fall for a few days, and the situation apparently was different on Thursday morning, as we saw a reset, which didn’t fit my calculations.  So, I am going to say WRONG.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017, 3:30PM:  Prices want to go lower, but they are taking their sweet time.  There’s a lot of $2.26’s around today, and if today’s wholesale drop of 5 cent holds, we are looking at a 0-margin price of $2.13, if I’m doing things right, so we have room to fall.  It is hard to say at this time of year, as we switch to “summer gas”.  Nevertheless, I’m going with the prediction that we won’t see a hike for the rest of the week. -EA

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