Back to $2.999. Thank you, Federal Reserve!

Comment on the June 23 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose to $2.89. Then they went to $2.95 last week.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019, 3:30PM: So, I was going to predict a price hike this afternoon, but I see we have one to $2.99. Anyway, here are the comments I wrote earlier this afternoon to post:

The stock market is at new highs this afternoon, and there is a general feeling that the economy is doing well. But, manufacturing appears to be stagnating globally, and there are other signs that we may be heading into a recession. So, the Fed is making noises that it will cut interest rates, and today commodities like gold and oil are rallying. Oil is rallying enough that we moving into possible price-hike territory for local gas prices, on Thursday or Friday. Back to $2.95? -EA

And I Ran … Towards Higher Gas Prices

Comment on the June 3 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, other than that weird hike on June 17.

Sunday, June 23, 2019, Noon: A lot of cross-currents in oil and gas prices as we move into official summer. In the past week, oil and wholesale gas prices soared, due to Iran tensions and that big refinery fire in Philadelphia. But, retail gas prices were inflated after last Monday’s hike, so we didn’t get a second hike at the end of the week. Going into Monday, though, we are probably setting up for a system-wide reset. In western Michigan, we have retail prices in a wide range — $2.29 (in Holland) to $2.79 (in parts of Grand Rapids). I predict we’ll see a hike into the $2.89-$2.99 range, maybe as soon as Monday.

Also, here’s a news report featuring Gas Game veteran Patrick DeHaan: “Why gas prices jump for no apparent reason”.  -EA

That’s More Like It

Comment on the May 27 prediction: A big WRONG, due to “multiple pipeline woes”. We got a hike to $2.99.

Monday, June 3, 2019, 7PM: Wow, what a hit to oil and gas prices in the past two weeks! A barrel of oil has fallen from $63 to $53, and gas prices are starting to notice. $2.49 at the Speedway in Comstock Park?! Sounds about right, and prices elsewhere should head that way this week. The only chance of a hike is, umm, more “multiple pipeline woes”. -EA

Still keeping it under $3

Comment on the May 5 prediction: Prices dropped slowly that week, as CORRECTly predicted, but then we had a pair of hikes to $2.99.

Monday, May 27, 2019, 11AM: Where has this month gone? We’ve been bouncing around between $2.69 and $2.99 here in Michigan, while last week’s action in the futures markets suggest lower prices ahead. On Thursday the 23rd, oil prices dropped considerably, and in a sign that this would help gas prices go lower, Valero stock went down 6%. I think we’ll see retail prices trend below $2.70 as the week goes on, which is already the case in Comstock Park, and that will get us to the end of May. -EA

Taxes per mile instead of per gallon?

Comment on the April 20 prediction: It was absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose to $2.99. But, I missed the hike on May 1.

Sunday, May 5, 2019, 11AM: Gas prices in California are over $4, and they are ready to go over $3 here. We may get a break short-term, as oil prices have dropped from $66 to $62 a barrel recently. Meanwhile, with the idea of a large per-gallon tax being proposed by the Governor, there is talk of other ways to think about raising enough revenues to keep the roads fixed, such as per-mile changes and congestion pricing. The Prius drivers of the world, getting 50-60 mpg, end up paying much less per mile that a typical car.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting graphic from OPIS that indicates what can influence gas prices along each part of the chain.

Only prediction today is that gas prices should drop slowly but steadily this week, and I doubt we’ll see a hike. -EA

Easter Candy Today; Fill Up Tomorrow

Sunday, April 20, 2019, 8AM: They gave us a break this Easter weekend, but we have the 0-margin price in the neighborhood of $2.75, and retail prices continue to drop. You can find gas below $2.60 in several areas of west Michigan. Expect a price hike on Monday or Tuesday, back to $2.95 or $2.99.

Meanwhile, if you are wondering how information about gas prices is shared to retailers, follow this link to PricePro.  -EA

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