Sometimes they overreact, and we have to pay for it

Comment on the February 2 prediction: Prices continued to fall that week, although I don’t think we got to $1.99. Basically CORRECT. Then we say a pair of hikes the past two weeks.

Sunday, February 23, 2020, 2PM: Prices rose to $2.55 in Michigan last Tuesday (February 18), but that hike seemed fishy. Yes, markets were suggesting over the President’s Day weekend that higher energy prices were in the works, but not with the vigor that justified a hike. It felt like someone at Speedway was overreacting, and given that we are already back in the $2.30’s around west Michigan, it does seem like it was a premature push of the button.

So, where are we today? I am estimating the 0-margin price in the mid $2.30’s, and this is supposed to be the time of year where retail prices are more buoyant. I’m expecting a price reset this week, in the $2.49-$2.55 range, but probably not on Monday.

Speaking of Speedway, are they for sale? That might shake up the Gas Game! -EA

Oil Catches A Bad Cold

Comment on the January 23 prediction: It was WRONG. Prices rose, but not until the following week, and only to $2.49

Sunday, February 2, 2020, 5PM: Energy stocks (tracked by the XLE fund) did not have a great 2019, when the market as a whole had a banner year. So, many market pundits, anticipating a roaring economy in 2020, thought it was time for oil to soar. Instead, oil was down more than 15% in January, and the culprit appears to be the coronavirus. Given the effects in China, will the virus bring on a worldwide recession? Oil traders seem to think so, and that is keeping gas prices low. With the Midwestern hike late last week, retail margins are solid right now, so there is no price hike on the horizon. Rather, I expect prices to dip into the $2.10’s and maybe lower. $1.99 anyone? -EA

$2.18 today in Grand Rapids? Time to fill up!

Comment on the January 12 prediction: Prices drifted lower last week, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, January 23, 2020, 3PM: Wow, $2.18 on the Fuller St. corridor in Grand Rapids today, while wholesale prices haven’t gone anywhere in more than a week. I am estimating a 0-cent margin price of $2.28, and that’s where we are at on Lake Michigan Drive. So, a good chance for a price reset in the next 24-48 hours, in the neighborhood of $2.59. Fill up! -EA

Things were a bit too jumpy last week

Comment on the January 5 prediction: CORRECT as stated, as prices rose to $2.69 on Tuesday.

Sunday, January 12, 2020, 6PM: The story of the week was gold, which spiked above $1600 Tuesday night on news of new violence in Iran/Iraq, but settled down quickly on Wednesday. Oil followed suit, and margins for gasoline retailers are about where they were with Tuesday’s hike. So, I am not worried about a price hike this week, but wow, already down to $2.43 on Michigan Avenue downtown! -EA

First Price Hike of the Year is Coming, in Aftermath of Iran-Iraq

Comment on the December 29 prediction: No hike as we moved into 2020, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, January 5, 2020, Noon: The military action last week in Iraq (but involving Iran) was serious, and during our last hot war in the Middle East more than a decade ago, gas prices rose to over $4. However, it is premature to declare that World War III has started, and when it comes to predicting gas prices, our job on this site is to usually just consider the next few days. Energy prices rose on Friday, but not in an insane way, but it has moved us nearly into price hike territory. It looks like we land in the neighborhood of $2.69 on Monday or Tuesday. -EA

Sensing some gas price inflation in 2020

Comment on the December 15 prediction: We got the rest that Wednesday, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, December 29, 2019, 2PM: It looks like commodities bottomed out in August, when oil traded at about $51 a barrel. More upward action last week in oil, now at almost $62 a barrel. That’s why we got the price hike on Thursday, and it appears the typical late December-May upward move in gas prices has started. I usually don’t look ahead several months, but I think we’ll see $3 gas again in 2020. But, for the coming week, we appear to be safe from another price hike.

Thank you to all our readers for following us in 2019. More to come in 2020! -EA

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