Spooky Price Drops Feels A Bit Like Fall 2008

Comment on the October prediction:  Completely WRONG in Michigan, but there was a hike to $3.29 in Indiana.

Monday, October 13, 2014, 1:30PM:  With gas selling for $2.60 a gallon in Lowell today, what is going on here?  Mathematics seems to be breaking down, as I am calculating that retailers are buying gas right now for about $3.00 a gallon, and selling it at a loss.  I can’t explain it, but at this time six years ago, prices went from $4.19 on September 13 to $1.59 on November 26 without a hike, and that’s when the Great Recession started.  I’m not saying the economy has started falling apart, but something spooky is going on.  Enjoy buying gas “on sale” while you can! — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Clearance Sale To End Soon

Comment on the September 21 prediction:  Yep, prices rose as predicted, so I was CORRECT.  Then prices started to plummet.

Monday, October 6, 2014, 8:45PM:  Gas is below $3 a gallon at several stations in the area, including $2.91 in Lowell.  It looks to me like the retailers are selling below cost right now — kind of a clearance sale of expensive gas they bought a few weeks ago.  But wholesale prices have ticked up today, and I think Speedway and friends (now including Hess on the East Coast!) will decide it is time to re-set prices.  There is a case to be made, based on past behavior, of a new price of $3.49, but I think they’ll set it a bit lower than that. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Too Soon for $3

Sunday, September 21, 2014:  2:00PM:  My uncertainty on Wednesday was wise, as prices continue to drop — $3.10 a gallon in Lowell this afternoon!  While ethanol prices continue to collapse, wholesale gasoline did spike up on Friday, so I am predicting a price re-set on Monday.  Maybe $3.49. — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

A nice two weeks … will it continue?

Comment on the September 3 prediction:  Prices rose as predicted, with $3.69 in Michigan, which is close enough for a CORRECT.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 9:00PM:  We’ve had a nice two weeks of falling prices.  Significant drops in the price of oil has been the biggest factor, but also of note is that ethanol prices have taken a real dive since Labor Day.  Since ethanol only make up 10% of what is coming out of the pumps, that isn’t going to have a big effect on retail prices (based on my new on-going study), but it looks like it has taken a few cents off of the pump price.  I estimate the cost-to-retailers tonight to be in the low $3.20’s, which is the retail price in Lowell and Wyoming.  So, we have a good chance for a hike tomorrow, to $3.49.  But I am not sure, though, because sometimes when we have falling prices like we have this month, the retail price will drop lower than expected first.  So, since I am getting low on gas, I am going to fill up on Thursday, but for now — no firm prediction. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Goofy market jumps mean spike is coming soon.

Yesterday, the market switched over to October prices, and as I have stated in the comments, they were much lower than September prices. Well, that lasted a day. The Chicago CBOB went from 2.7829
on Friday, to 2.6780 yesterday. Today it is at 2.8060. Ohio spiked recently, so should miss out on this one, but expect Indiana and Michigan to spike tomorrow up to $3.55-3.59 in Indiana and 4-10 cents higher in Michigan. -BE

Posted in Predictions

Why I filled up tonight, and why I’ve been WRONG lately

Comment on the August 13 prediction:  Nope.  No hike, so the prediction was WRONG.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014, 9:00PM:  OK, I have been Mr. WRONG the past two months.  What’s going on?  Let me at least walk you through the last two predictions.  On August 5, the “Chicago CBOB spot price” that I find on the Internet was $2.61, which translated to a price to retailers of $3.29.  Since the retail price in Standale was $3.43, I thought we were safe.  But then next day, the spot price rose 10 cents, and then another 9 cents the next day.  Ta da, price hike on August 7.  On August 13, CBOB was $2.77, which means a price to retailers of $3.45, which was the retail price in Standale.  Sounds like the recipe for a price hike.  But, the next day, CBOB dropped 9 cents, and then another 12 cents over the next few days.  Ta da, no hike.  And that brings us to today.  CBOB jumped 6 cents today, and the price to retailers equals the retail price in Standale.  If filled up tonight, and I’ll risk further public ridicule and predict a price hike for Wednesday.  $3.55? –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

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Wholesale Pricing

Crude Oil Nov 1483.05  chart+0.24
Rbob Gasoline Nov2.1893  chart-0.0176
Wednesday, October 22 @ 9:00 pm

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