Deja Vu All Over Again — heading back to $3.09

Comment on the July 22 prediction: Kind of CORRECT, as prices rose, but they went all the way to $3.09.

Monday, August 6, 2018, 9PM: A snoozefest lately in the energy markets, but the numbers look almost the same as they did before the last Michigan hike on July 24. Estimated price to retailers is about $2.88, while retail prices are lower, sometimes in the $2.70’s. That strongly suggests we are going back to $3.09 again, either Tuesday or Wednesday. -EA

How did we get to $2.69?

Comment on the July 7 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose to $3.09 on July 10.

Sunday, July 22, 2018, 9AM: Since July 10, we’ve seen the kind of price reset DOWN that we treasure, with prices at $2.69 or lower in several areas of Grand Rapids this morning. So, what’s happening this month? Oil prices dropped 8% and NYMEX gas followed with a 16 cent drop. In fact, other commodities have been weak, too, such as gold. All this is probably connected to a strengthening dollar and higher interest rates.

So, what’s the plan for gasoline this coming week? Think of $2.69 as a clearance sale price by the retailers, and the moment that we get an uptick in wholesale prices, retail will follow with a price hike. That should happen this week, and it looks like $2.99 could be the new price. -EA

Expecting $3.09 Again

Comment on the July 1 prediction: Despite higher oil prices, gas prices stayed below $3, so I was WRONG.

Saturday, July 7, 2018, 9AM: Wholesale prices have been steady, while retail prices have slowly slid lower, and we are getting close to price-hike territory. Price drops of another eight cents or so will trigger it, and I expect we’ll be there by Tuesday morning. Probably back to $3.09. -EA

Holiday Road

Comment on the June 24 prediction: CORRECT idea, but a bit WRONG in execution, as prices rose to just $3.05, and they waited until Wednesday to do it.

Sunday, July 1, 2018, 10AM: It’s a holiday week, so let’s our get our heads in the right place about it. There is a perception that they like to hike gas prices before a holiday, but here’s a study that says otherwise. You know our approach — estimate the wholesale price, compare to the retail price, make a prediction. Whether or not it is a holiday week is usually irrelevant.

Going into this week, oil prices have jacked up from $65 to $74 the past two weeks, and it doesn’t look like that has filtered into gas prices yet. The last time we were over $70, in late May, we saw a hike to $3.19. That could happen again this week, because of the price of oil, not because of Wednesday is the 4th of July. We might not see a hike until Thursday, so it’s hard to say this is a prediction. Just keep an eye on things.

Bonus: from Futures Magazine, here is an overview of oil prices since before The Gas Game started. Note the long-term trend line which serves like a magnet — prices break away from it, and come back. Looks like we are in breakaway mode again, despite someone’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. -EA

The Return of OPEC

Comment on the June 12 prediction: It rhymes with DIRECT, yes we were CORRECT, as prices rose again to $3.09 on the 14th.

Sunday, June 24, 2018, Noon: For more than a generation, we’ve been dealing with OPEC decisions and statements. Some are like a mild breeze and don’t have any effect. Others, though, spark movement in the energy markets, and Friday was an example of this. Oil prices rose by more than $3 on Friday, and wholesale gas prices started to be pulled along, up five cents in one day. Combine that with prices falling below $2.89, and we are back in price hike territory, perhaps as soon as Monday. Looks like something like $3.09 again — fill up! -EA

Garden Variety Hike for Flag Day

Comment on the June 3 prediction: CORRECT as written, as prices rose to $3.09.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 7:30PM: Wholesale prices have been pretty steady since the last hike, but retail prices have given up the reset and we are almost back in price hike territory, with prices $2.85 and below in several places in the area. Expect to see somewhere between $3.05 and $3.09 the next two days. -EA

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