$3.09? Really?

Friday, November 14, 2014, 9:30AM:  This week, we’ve seen hikes in Indiana to $2.99 and yesterday in Michigan to $3.09.  These jumps haven’t really fit the Gas Game historical pattern, and yesterday’s Michigan jump looks like a desperate effort to make up for some losses on old inventory purchased at a much higher price in September.  Expect significantly lower prices, as oil fell to its lowest price this year late Thursday, and gasoline futures followed.  Ethanol is back up, but I am still estimating a price to retailers of about $2.75, so there’s a lot of room to drop. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Heading back under $3 again. Here are some theories why.

Sunday, October 26, 2014, 5:00PM:  On June 5, there was a hike to $3.99 in Michigan.  Today, you can find gas under $3.  What a move!  Looking ahead, the recent jump $3.19 coincided with another drop in wholesale prices, so there is a lot of room for prices to drop this week.  I would be looking for gas below $2.90 soon.

Now, what explains this 25% drop in retail prices since June, and an even better record the past several years?  I have a few theories:  (1) In September, I wonder if some hedge funds got caught “leaning the wrong way”, betting on higher energy prices.  When that did not materialize, they had to liquidate their bets, causing a sudden drop in prices.  I have no evidence of this, other than I’ve seen this happen before, especially in stocks and other commodities.  (2)  There is significant evidence that the demand for oil and gas has been falling the past several years, while the supply has been rising, due in part to significant increases in US production.  We have been driving less, buying fewer cars, and fuel efficiency has been improving. Consequently, we have been buying less gasoline (which is what the Democrats wanted), while supplies have been increasing (which is what the Republicans wanted).  Hence, a bipartisan victory — lower prices.  (3)  Energy “investors” are looking at the Middle East differently than they did a decade ago.  Then, with the war in Iraq, there was a “global tensions premium” built into energy prices.  As our involvement in Iraq has wound down, the premium has slowly disappeared, and, in the case of the past few months, not so slowly.  What is confounding about this theory is that we have new Middle Eastern tensions (a.k.a., ISIS).  But, perhaps ISIS is not as big a deal as it appears, or perhaps the US really is heading towards energy independence as politicians have talked about since 9/11, and finally, in 2014, we are starting to reap the benefits.

In terms of the Gas Game, it is harder to predict price hikes when there are fewer hikes.  But I’m not complaining!!!! — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Spooky Price Drops Feels A Bit Like Fall 2008

Comment on the October prediction:  Completely WRONG in Michigan, but there was a hike to $3.29 in Indiana.

Monday, October 13, 2014, 1:30PM:  With gas selling for $2.60 a gallon in Lowell today, what is going on here?  Mathematics seems to be breaking down, as I am calculating that retailers are buying gas right now for about $3.00 a gallon, and selling it at a loss.  I can’t explain it, but at this time six years ago, prices went from $4.19 on September 13 to $1.59 on November 26 without a hike, and that’s when the Great Recession started.  I’m not saying the economy has started falling apart, but something spooky is going on.  Enjoy buying gas “on sale” while you can! — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Clearance Sale To End Soon

Comment on the September 21 prediction:  Yep, prices rose as predicted, so I was CORRECT.  Then prices started to plummet.

Monday, October 6, 2014, 8:45PM:  Gas is below $3 a gallon at several stations in the area, including $2.91 in Lowell.  It looks to me like the retailers are selling below cost right now — kind of a clearance sale of expensive gas they bought a few weeks ago.  But wholesale prices have ticked up today, and I think Speedway and friends (now including Hess on the East Coast!) will decide it is time to re-set prices.  There is a case to be made, based on past behavior, of a new price of $3.49, but I think they’ll set it a bit lower than that. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Too Soon for $3

Sunday, September 21, 2014:  2:00PM:  My uncertainty on Wednesday was wise, as prices continue to drop — $3.10 a gallon in Lowell this afternoon!  While ethanol prices continue to collapse, wholesale gasoline did spike up on Friday, so I am predicting a price re-set on Monday.  Maybe $3.49. — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

A nice two weeks … will it continue?

Comment on the September 3 prediction:  Prices rose as predicted, with $3.69 in Michigan, which is close enough for a CORRECT.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 9:00PM:  We’ve had a nice two weeks of falling prices.  Significant drops in the price of oil has been the biggest factor, but also of note is that ethanol prices have taken a real dive since Labor Day.  Since ethanol only make up 10% of what is coming out of the pumps, that isn’t going to have a big effect on retail prices (based on my new on-going study), but it looks like it has taken a few cents off of the pump price.  I estimate the cost-to-retailers tonight to be in the low $3.20’s, which is the retail price in Lowell and Wyoming.  So, we have a good chance for a hike tomorrow, to $3.49.  But I am not sure, though, because sometimes when we have falling prices like we have this month, the retail price will drop lower than expected first.  So, since I am getting low on gas, I am going to fill up on Thursday, but for now — no firm prediction. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

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