Expecting $3.09 Again

Comment on the July 1 prediction: Despite higher oil prices, gas prices stayed below $3, so I was WRONG.

Saturday, July 7, 2018, 9AM: Wholesale prices have been steady, while retail prices have slowly slid lower, and we are getting close to price-hike territory. Price drops of another eight cents or so will trigger it, and I expect we’ll be there by Tuesday morning. Probably back to $3.09. -EA

Holiday Road

Comment on the June 24 prediction: CORRECT idea, but a bit WRONG in execution, as prices rose to just $3.05, and they waited until Wednesday to do it.

Sunday, July 1, 2018, 10AM: It’s a holiday week, so let’s our get our heads in the right place about it. There is a perception that they like to hike gas prices before a holiday, but here’s a study that says otherwise. You know our approach — estimate the wholesale price, compare to the retail price, make a prediction. Whether or not it is a holiday week is usually irrelevant.

Going into this week, oil prices have jacked up from $65 to $74 the past two weeks, and it doesn’t look like that has filtered into gas prices yet. The last time we were over $70, in late May, we saw a hike to $3.19. That could happen again this week, because of the price of oil, not because of Wednesday is the 4th of July. We might not see a hike until Thursday, so it’s hard to say this is a prediction. Just keep an eye on things.

Bonus: from Futures Magazine, here is an overview of oil prices since before The Gas Game started. Note the long-term trend line which serves like a magnet — prices break away from it, and come back. Looks like we are in breakaway mode again, despite someone’s attempt to talk down the price of oil. -EA

The Return of OPEC

Comment on the June 12 prediction: It rhymes with DIRECT, yes we were CORRECT, as prices rose again to $3.09 on the 14th.

Sunday, June 24, 2018, Noon: For more than a generation, we’ve been dealing with OPEC decisions and statements. Some are like a mild breeze and don’t have any effect. Others, though, spark movement in the energy markets, and Friday was an example of this. Oil prices rose by more than $3 on Friday, and wholesale gas prices started to be pulled along, up five cents in one day. Combine that with prices falling below $2.89, and we are back in price hike territory, perhaps as soon as Monday. Looks like something like $3.09 again — fill up! -EA

Garden Variety Hike for Flag Day

Comment on the June 3 prediction: CORRECT as written, as prices rose to $3.09.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 7:30PM: Wholesale prices have been pretty steady since the last hike, but retail prices have given up the reset and we are almost back in price hike territory, with prices $2.85 and below in several places in the area. Expect to see somewhere between $3.05 and $3.09 the next two days. -EA

From $3.19 to $2.71 to ???

Comment on the May 20 prediction: $3.19 on May 22, as predicted. No hikes since then.

Sunday, June 3, 2018, 6:00PM: Oil prices recently maxed out on May 21, leading to a hike to $3.19 the next day. Since then, for a variety of factors, oil has dropped 8% helping gas prices to fall to as low as $2.71 in Sparta. We’ve seen this before, as an on-going drop in wholesale prices leads to retailers aggressively cutting what they are asking for a gallon, keeping their margins razor-thin. As a result, any rise in wholesale prices triggers a price hike. That’s due to occur this week, and with it, a reset back to … $3.09? -EA

Gas Over $3 — Who is Profiting?

Comment on the May 6 prediction: CORRECT about the under-hike on May 8, but not prepared for $3.09 on May 14.

Sunday, May 20, 2018, 9:00PM: In the past year, gas prices have climbed from $2.40 to over $3 a gallon, following oil prices that have soared from $47 to $70 a barrel. Who’s profiting? Clearly oil producers such as OPEC, Russia, Texas, and North Dakota. And how about Valero Energy, an oil refiner and nationwide gasoline retailer, particularly in California and Texas. You could have bought a share of VLO for $62 a year ago. On Friday, the closing price was $120.56. Nice profit for shareholders! I wish I bought some shares, as I worried about $3 gas.

Well, what about the rest of May? Wholesale prices continue their climb this month, and I’m sure they’ll reset prices this coming week, maybe as soon as Monday. At least back to $3.09, and $3.19 is highly probable. -EA

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