Comment on the September 13 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, with prices in the $2.20’s this week.
Thursday, September 21, 2017, 9:30PM: The headline late this afternoon screams, “Chicago Spot Gasoline Soars on Aggressive Refiner Buying”. Soar might be too strong a word, but wholesale prices are up tonight, enough that we are in danger of a price reset on Friday or Saturday. Low prices in places like Jenison will tempt Big Red. I advise filling up Friday morning, predicting a reset in the neighborhood of $2.59. -EA
Comment on the August 31 prediction: The hike didn’t kick in until after Labor Day, but it was $2.79! 25% CORRECT?
Wednesday, September 13, 2017, 8:30PM: I’ve been waiting for markets to settle down post-hurricanes for this latest post. As horrific the damage from Harvey and Irma, it could have been worse, and our gasoline infrastructure appears intact. So, wholesale prices have been working their way lower, and at some point soon, retail prices should follow. In the Grand Rapids area, look around for under $2.50, which you will find in Wyoming, and I think we could possibly see $2.29 somewhere by Monday morning. -EA
Comment on Monday’s prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, as prices rose Tuesday, but I think they pulled their punches with $2.65.
Thursday, August 31, 2017, 4:30PM: The severe flooding in Houston is creating supply shortages in the gasoline market. That, combined with end-of-month contract expiration shenanigans, has led to a big spike in NYMEX prices today, and I am waiting for end-of-day information from Chicago, but at lunchtime, CBOB and RBOB were up several cents. Maybe they’ll surprise me and keep prices at bay through the holiday weekend, but I doubt it, and I predict another hike on Friday or Saturday. $2.79? Higher? -EA
Comment on the August 19 prediction: The price reset to $2.55 came on Monday, not Thursday, so 3/4 CORRECT, 1/4 WRONG.
Monday, August 28, 2017, 7:00PM: On Friday, the question was would Hurricane Harvey cause significant refinery closures in Texas, leading to potential shortages of gasoline in the Mississippi valley and the Midwest. We’ve learned from the past to not jump to conclusions about potential price hikes based on potential weather. Well, the flooding from the hurricane is real, and in the Chicago markets, they started jacking up wholesale prices today, so I’d fill up tonight or first thing tomorrow, before they hike prices. Best guess of the new price is $2.69-$2.75. –Ed A.
Comment on the July 25 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose that week to $2.55 in Michigan.
Saturday, August 19, 2017, 11:00AM: I’ve been posting less this summer for a few reasons. One is the great work of my TGG colleagues. The other is that, other than a brief dip in June, wholesale gas prices have been pretty steady since the beginning of May, and retail prices have been, well, boring. We’ve had eight price resets in almost four months, with prices buzzing around this summer’s Michigan average of about $2.45. That’s a far cry from the twice-a-week hikes we saw a few years ago, and the $4+ per gallon. This inflation-adjusted chart of gas prices going back to the 1970’s really tells the story:
Things will get crazy again at some point, and these quiet times are the ones to sharpen our analytic tools and study the past. Short-term, I think we’ll see a price reset this coming week, probably on Thursday. Back to $2.55 again? –Ed A.
Just a quick note that margins are getting tight again. Midwest looking prime for a price reset. Some areas have already seen an increase. -TS