Silly September?

Comment on previous predictions: Mostly WRONG. Although I’ve been stuck on predicting hikes to $3.09, when prices rose after Labor Day, they only went to $2.99. And there was no hike the past two days, although I predicted one.

Saturday, September 22, 2018 5PM: So, when predictions go WRONG, you ask yourself about lessons learned. Looking back on September 2017, the lesson may be that either my wholesale gas calculation is inflated each September, or Big Red and others are more willing to tolerate losing money at the pump when summer ends. The numbers look the same as they did on Wednesday, so I just want to predict the same price hike I did a few days ago (and I did fill up myself first thing Thursday morning). But, we may need to get more $2.69’s around GR first. Advice: Keep an eye on the price signs on Monday and be ready to pounce if you see a hike at one station. -EA

Celebrate Labor Day with a Full Tank of Gas

Comment on the August 18 prediction: Absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose to $2.99 on 8/22 in Michigan.

Monday, September 3, 2018, 8AM: Our current pattern continues — wholesale prices remain relatively stable, we get a price hike followed by a week or two of slipping prices, and then a hike again. Since the last price reset on August 22, retail prices have been working their way into the $2.70’s, while wholesale prices have had a small rise. We are ready to see $3.09 again, maybe as soon as Tuesday. So, use Labor Day to fill up!  -EA

Late Summer Snoozefest Continues

Comment on the August 6 prediction: Absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose on the 7th.

Saturday, August 18, 2018, 5PM: Since our last posting, oil prices have dropped about 5%, and so have wholesale gas prices, dropping our hike worry line about 10 cents. With prices in the $2.60’s in parts of Grand Rapids, that would put us in price hike territory. But, oddly, the stations that I track along Lake Michigan Drive are still above $2.90. In the end, I think we do see a reset this week, to $2.99, but it might not be until Thursday. -EA

Deja Vu All Over Again — heading back to $3.09

Comment on the July 22 prediction: Kind of CORRECT, as prices rose, but they went all the way to $3.09.

Monday, August 6, 2018, 9PM: A snoozefest lately in the energy markets, but the numbers look almost the same as they did before the last Michigan hike on July 24. Estimated price to retailers is about $2.88, while retail prices are lower, sometimes in the $2.70’s. That strongly suggests we are going back to $3.09 again, either Tuesday or Wednesday. -EA

How did we get to $2.69?

Comment on the July 7 prediction: CORRECT, as prices rose to $3.09 on July 10.

Sunday, July 22, 2018, 9AM: Since July 10, we’ve seen the kind of price reset DOWN that we treasure, with prices at $2.69 or lower in several areas of Grand Rapids this morning. So, what’s happening this month? Oil prices dropped 8% and NYMEX gas followed with a 16 cent drop. In fact, other commodities have been weak, too, such as gold. All this is probably connected to a strengthening dollar and higher interest rates.

So, what’s the plan for gasoline this coming week? Think of $2.69 as a clearance sale price by the retailers, and the moment that we get an uptick in wholesale prices, retail will follow with a price hike. That should happen this week, and it looks like $2.99 could be the new price. -EA

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