Game Reset

Comment on the April 9 prediction and recent price action:  We were CORRECT on April 9 about that hike, but my spreadsheet calculations have been out of alignment since then, and I missed both the April 20 and today’s hikes.  WRONG and WRONG.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016, 3:00PM:  $2.39 here in Grand Rapids, today — ouch!  Sorry that I haven’t been able to help with predictions, but my calculations have been off.  I spent time this afternoon reviewing my spreadsheet and revising calculations based on RBOB inputs, and it seems to backtest well.  At least looking at the past few months.  Now, why do prices keep going up?  I think it is fair to say that wholesale oil and gas prices were artificially low this winter, and I still blame that on the blowup of Glencore.  At this point, $2.99 this summer won’t surprise me. –Ed A.

Making the Game More Difficult to Play

Comment on the March 28 prediction:  For the most part, CORRECT, as prices rose as predicted, but up to $2.19, not just $2.09.

Saturday, April 9, 2016, 9:00AM:  Maybe it is karma for my “We know exactly what we’re doing” snark on March 28, but this week, many of the freely-available sources that The Gas Game uses to monitor wholesale prices in the Midwest went dark, at least temporarily.  We can always keep an eye on the publicly-traded futures contracts in New York, and there other tricks we have to try to track these prices, but they are less exact and less reliable.  But we’ll do the best we can going forward, and with oil prices shooting up on Friday, it is clear so did wholesale gas prices.  Looks like the station I track in Fort Wayne jumped up to $2.09 sometime in the past 16 hours, and there are reports that Ohio went up to $2.09 on Thursday.  So it is clear that a price reset is coming in Michigan and other Big Red states.  Figure that we are heading back to $2.19 either today (Saturday!) or on Monday. –Ed A.

Don’t Be An April Fool — Fill Up the Tank

Comments on the March 16 prediction:  Let’s dispel with this fiction that the Gas Game doesn’t know what we’re doing. We know exactly what we’re doing.  CORRECT.

Monday, March 28, 2016, 8:30PM:  It is one of those retail-prices-have-been-declining and wholesale-prices-have-ticked-up moments, as the retailers margins are gone, so it is price hike time.  For Tuesday, looks like a trip back to $2.09, or a few cents lower. –Ed A.

Spend More Green on Gasoline

Comment on the February 29 prediction:  Pretty much CORRECT, as prices rose on Tuesday, but it was to $1.99.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016, 9:00PM:  Energy prices continue to recover from the historical collapse in 2015, and refineries are starting to work on the summer gas blend.  Result: St. Patrick is bringing a price hike on Thursday, as we jump over $2, to around $2.09.  Shamrock on you! –Ed A.

Situation Normal — Here Comes $1.89

Comment on my February 8 prediction:  Prices fell for a few days, then rose a bit that Thursday, so I call this a PUSH.

Monday, February 29, 2016, 8:30PM:  It is starting to look like gas and oil prices bottomed out on February 11, and stocks, too.  Wholesale gas prices have practically doubled since then!  There is enough scare in the markets to see them start “climbing the wall of worry” and to convince central bankers to try to goose the market up.  We also know that gas prices usually rise the first four months of the year, and after a delay, I think we are back to SNAFU — situation normal, all ….  Short-term, expect a price hike on Tuesday.  Estimated new price:  $1.89. — Ed A.

Conditions favorable for another hike

We made it through the weekend and survived Presidents Day, but I’m thinking there’s a shot at another Spike in the next few days. The average retail price has peaked and started to drop since the last Spike here in Ohio. Combine that with the huge jump in spot prices last week and we’re sitting right on the Spike Line price again. $1.799 is a possibility. Prices aren’t what they were a week ago, but they’re still lower than $1.799. Hedge your bets if you’re getting low.

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