Too Soon for $3

Sunday, September 21, 2014:  2:00PM:  My uncertainty on Wednesday was wise, as prices continue to drop — $3.10 a gallon in Lowell this afternoon!  While ethanol prices continue to collapse, wholesale gasoline did spike up on Friday, so I am predicting a price re-set on Monday.  Maybe $3.49. — Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

A nice two weeks … will it continue?

Comment on the September 3 prediction:  Prices rose as predicted, with $3.69 in Michigan, which is close enough for a CORRECT.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014, 9:00PM:  We’ve had a nice two weeks of falling prices.  Significant drops in the price of oil has been the biggest factor, but also of note is that ethanol prices have taken a real dive since Labor Day.  Since ethanol only make up 10% of what is coming out of the pumps, that isn’t going to have a big effect on retail prices (based on my new on-going study), but it looks like it has taken a few cents off of the pump price.  I estimate the cost-to-retailers tonight to be in the low $3.20’s, which is the retail price in Lowell and Wyoming.  So, we have a good chance for a hike tomorrow, to $3.49.  But I am not sure, though, because sometimes when we have falling prices like we have this month, the retail price will drop lower than expected first.  So, since I am getting low on gas, I am going to fill up on Thursday, but for now — no firm prediction. –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

Goofy market jumps mean spike is coming soon.

Yesterday, the market switched over to October prices, and as I have stated in the comments, they were much lower than September prices. Well, that lasted a day. The Chicago CBOB went from 2.7829
on Friday, to 2.6780 yesterday. Today it is at 2.8060. Ohio spiked recently, so should miss out on this one, but expect Indiana and Michigan to spike tomorrow up to $3.55-3.59 in Indiana and 4-10 cents higher in Michigan. -BE

Posted in Predictions

Why I filled up tonight, and why I’ve been WRONG lately

Comment on the August 13 prediction:  Nope.  No hike, so the prediction was WRONG.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014, 9:00PM:  OK, I have been Mr. WRONG the past two months.  What’s going on?  Let me at least walk you through the last two predictions.  On August 5, the “Chicago CBOB spot price” that I find on the Internet was $2.61, which translated to a price to retailers of $3.29.  Since the retail price in Standale was $3.43, I thought we were safe.  But then next day, the spot price rose 10 cents, and then another 9 cents the next day.  Ta da, price hike on August 7.  On August 13, CBOB was $2.77, which means a price to retailers of $3.45, which was the retail price in Standale.  Sounds like the recipe for a price hike.  But, the next day, CBOB dropped 9 cents, and then another 12 cents over the next few days.  Ta da, no hike.  And that brings us to today.  CBOB jumped 6 cents today, and the price to retailers equals the retail price in Standale.  If filled up tonight, and I’ll risk further public ridicule and predict a price hike for Wednesday.  $3.55? –Ed A.

Posted in Commentary, Predictions

#TBT Tank Banquet Thursday

Comment on the August 5 prediction:  One of my WRONGest predictions ever, as a jump in wholesale prices yielded a hike on the 7th.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014, 6:30PM:  After last week’s price hike, wholesale prices bumped more, while retail prices did their typical slow drip lower.  Looking at tonight’s numbers, we are right in the price hike zone, so I am going to take my car out for a meal on Thursday morning.  Expected new price in Michigan:  $3.69.  –Ed A.

Posted in Predictions

The only hikes expected will be at football practice

Comment on the July 26 posting:  Wasn’t really a prediction, and prices rose on July 29 and 30th to what I feared.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 3:30PM:  With financial markets showing weakness, energy prices are starting to slip, too, and we are in no danger of a price hike this week.  That’s a prediction.  But, for a little added value, here’s a recent interview with Gregg Laskoski of GasBuddy, giving a good explanation for the gas price action we see in the Midwest.  — Ed A.

Posted in Predictions

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Wholesale Pricing

Crude Oil Oct 1491.50  chart-0.02
Rbob Gasoline Oct2.587  chart+0.0001
Monday, September 22 @ 6:00 pm

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