Longest days of the year should bring better prices

Comment on the June 1 and 7 predictions:  CORRECT and CORRECT, as prices soared the first half of June.

June 15, 2016, 7:30PM:  After the crazy hikes the first week of June, fueled by the new normal of refinery and pipeline issues, wholesale prices have fallen hard this week, and I expect retail prices to follow.  My estimate of the 0-cent margin price is $2.28 this evening, and retail prices are much higher right now.  So, don’t be in a rush to fill up, and we should be good into next week. — Ed A.

Just Usual Nauseating Escalation

Comment on the May 25 prediction and post:  CORRECT about no hike, but WRONG about giving @onetoughnerd credit for playing The Gas Game.  The quote was actually from GG Alum Patrick DeHaan.  Holy Antecedent Error!


June 1, 2016, 8:30PM:  New month and wholesale prices reset … higher.  We saw a 7 cent jump in Chicago wholesale prices today, and the same jump in ethanol prices.  Meanwhile, retail prices have been slipping, so we have entered the price hike zone.  To top it off … tomorrow is Thursday.  Fill up by 10AM! — Ed A.

A Tough Transition

Comment on the May 8 prediction:  Prices rose, but not until Wednesday, May 11, so the prediction was not helpful.  WRONG.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016, 8:15PM:  This has been a hard game to play this spring, and this week is another example.  On Monday, retail prices soared in Michigan to $2.59 (matched today in Fort Wayne), and I thought, “Oh, it is one of those Fat Fingered Greed Grab“.  But that same day, Michigan Governor Snyder declared an “energy emergency” in Michigan, due to “temporary shortages and shipment delays” of gasoline.  One reason:  we are in transition week to “summer gasoline”, blended to help reduce air pollution (good!), but this time of year becomes a logistical nightmare for gasoline (bad!).  But with recent hikes and the return of some helpful data, I think the transition of my spreadsheet to something useful again is complete.

So, price hike tomorrow before the holiday weekend?  I concur with this tweet from @onetoughnerd:  “At this time, I do not see further #gasprice increases coming. Market is elevated but stable.” –Ed A.

Let’s start off the week on the wrong foot

Sunday, May 8, 2016, 10:00PM:  I’m looking for a price reset on Monday or Tuesday, maybe back to $2.39.  Prices have dropped nicely over the past two weeks, and the estimated price-to-retailers tonight is $2.08, which matches prices I am seeing in certain places around Grand Rapids.  Throw in some international oil tension this weekend, and it seems the wisest course of action is to fill up Monday morning. -EA

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