Sunday, May 5, 2024, 5 PM: The price for a barrel of oil broke below $80 this week, taking pressure off of wholesale gas prices, and slowly but surely, off of retail prices. For instance, in Lowell today, I saw gas for $3.61 a gallon vs. $3.85 on April 24. I expect price moderation to continue this week, and in retail corridors that include a K&G in Kent County, the price is $3.39 a gallon right now.

The beginning of May of even years is when I reset the spreadsheet I use to predict gas prices. I will continue to daily monitor prices on Lake Michigan Drive (on the way to work!) and at a Speedway in Fort Wayne near family members. Following Allendale prices was interesting for a while when the new increased competition was occurring on I-96 north of GVSU, but then they stopped competing. Instead, I am going to keep an eye on the Costco on the east side of Kent County, which I believe is a good proxy for the 0-cent margin price.

As you can see in this screenshot from my 2022-24 spreadsheet, it is more fun to play the Gas Game in Fort Wayne, where price hikes are fewer and they dissipate quicker. The screenshot is typical of what I observe. Arguably, Fort Wayne has a lot of gas stations on the southwest side of Allen County, creating localized gas price skirmishes. We could use more of those here in Michigan. -EA

Comment on the April 17 prediction: CORRECT for a week, and then the retailers got bored last Wednesday and hiked to $3.85 (and in some cases, $3.89). A FROWN for not seeing that hike coming.

Sunday, April 28, 2024, 3 PM: Last week was the second time in two months that we saw a price hike that didn’t seem to fit the wholesale data. This time, though, the hike propagated through Michigan quickly. Here in west Michigan, consumers could quietly celebrate certain neighborhoods that only reset to $3.49, thanks to the ongoing competitive pricing from K&G.

For context, let me repeat what I wrote 11 days ago: “Oil prices have been holding constant at about $85 a barrel so far this month, and consequently, wholesale gas prices have also been holding steady near $2.80 a gallon.” Yet, starting at the end of March, we have had three hikes: $3.69, $3.79, and now $3.85/$3.89. There are no refinery issues or new taxes. Just remember that “because we can” isn’t sustainable. -EA

Comment on the April 7 prediction: The hike to $3.79 came on Thursday the 10th, which took longer than I expected, so almost CORRECT.

Wednesday, April 17, 2024, 12 PM: I hesitated to write a post this past Sunday, given what was happening in the Middle East then and the unpredictable effect on oil and gas prices. But, it appears that the latest between Iran and Israel has settled down for now, so let’s see where we are at.

Oil prices have been holding constant at about $85 a barrel so far this month, and consequently, wholesale gas prices have also been holding steady near $2.80 a gallon. That price corresponds to a 0-cent margin price of around $3.30, and we have some stations in west Michigan near that price, particularly on Alpine Ave. Elsewhere, you can still find prices in the $3.70’s from the April 7 hike. As we have noted several times, it depends on how active the competition is in a neighborhood.

So, given the lack of volatility recently, any hike for the remainder of this week would go back to $3.79. I am doubtful that will happen unless Big M and Big Red get bored. -EA

Comment on the April 2 prediction: So far, Michigan has been spared the recent hikes that have affected other Great Lakes states. So, the prediction was WRONG.

Sunday, April 7, 2024, 11 AM: Really, nothing has changed in wholesale-land for gas prices since my last posting. I was glad to be able to buy gas for $3.35 a gallon in Portland, west of Lansing, on Saturday evening. But still many $3.69’s in Kent and Ottawa counties. And the media has started noticing that oil has been ticking up towards $90 a barrel. So, I’m doubling down on my prediction for a hike in the next few days, in the neighborhood of $3.79. -EA

Comment on the March 24 prediction: They did reset last week, but only to $3.69 again. Almost CORRECT.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024, 5 PM: I received GasBuddy alert today for hikes in Ohio, NW Indiana, and the rest of Indiana, all pushing up to new highs for the year. Is Michigan next? Probably, as oil continues to rally, now to over $85 a barrel. OK, Marathon, stick it to us with $3.79. I’m watching you. -EA

Sunday, March 24, 2024, 2 PM: When I was a kid, I had a book called That’s Good, That’s Bad. Let’s do that with gas prices here in the Midwest.

No price resets last week was good. Seeing prices notably higher in Michigan and Illinois versus the rest of the old school Big Ten states is bad.

Source:  GasBuddy

That the Whiting refinery in Indiana is back to normal operations is good. That attacks on refineries are occurring in the Ukraine war is bad, even though Ukraine is half a world away, as this article explains.

It is good that you can get gas in west Michigan for $3.29 in Kentwood. It is bad that prices are as high as $3.73 this afternoon in Allendale. (Remember when Allendale had price competition?)

The 0-cent margin price is somewhere between $3.29 and $3.39, and that is good. But oil has ticked up to $80 a barrel, which will keep gas prices above $3 a gallon. Bad.

So, the plan for the week? Keep looking for prices below $3.59. (Good.) There is a decent chance they’ll try to take it back to $3.75 – $3.79 later in the week. (Bad.) -EA