Comment on the August 11 posting: I was indecisive about making a prediction, and thankfully there were no hikes in Michigan this past week that I am aware of.
Sunday, August 18, 2024, 5 PM: Let’s take a break from speculation about gas prices and artificial intelligence, and start over again with the basic calculation. We begin with an estimate of base wholesale price, which I have various sources for, and on Friday, that price was near $2.19. Meanwhile, ethanol is cheaper at $1.81, and regular blend is 90/10, which gives us about $2.15 a gallon. Now we add the federal tax (18.4 cents per gallon) and my educated guess of add-ins from middlemen and credit card fees (18 cents per gallon), bringing us to $2.61 or so. Now on to the Michigan state taxes: 6% sales tax and 30 cents per gallon, bringing us to about $3.07. That is what I call the 0-cent margin price, and because the base wholesale price is fuzzy, so is this number. But, it is a reasonable floor for gas prices in the state of Michigan.
OK, let’s take a look at actual prices in the Grand Rapids area, via Gas Buddy: In Sparta, often a place for the best prices, there is a station posting $2.97 this afternoon. Woo hoo! A bit of a gas war in Greenville, in the $3.10’s. Looking at higher prices, there are a lot of $3.40’s and $3.50’s in the area.
There is one other twist for the mid-August to mid-September time period. Historically, the retailers are in no rush to restore prices and margins at this time of year. I’m not sure why, but it may be related to switch over to cheaper winter blend gasoline in mid-September. Given that, despite some stations down near $3, I am predict we’ll continue to see prices dropping the next several days, and crossing my fingers that we’ll make it to next weekend without a hike. -EA
Spiking in Fort Wayne. $3.49 at the Greedways, up from as low as $3.07.
Related note…any take on Circle K buying up 7-11? Will control 12.3% of all of the gas stations in the US, with 2nd place held down by Casey’s at 1.7%…10 times smaller. Apparently the Circle K owner also recently bought up GetnGo, so it would seem you have the largest spiker of gas prices in the US becoming more than 10 times larger than it’s nearest competitor. Nothing good can come from that…
DIdn’t know 7-11 was a Japanese company. And Circle K (Touchecard) is Canadian. Agree…nothing good can come for US consumers.
I’ve noticed some Kroger stores in mid-Michigan went up to $3.49 today, which was a ridiculously small increase for some of them. The one closest to me was $3.39 yesterday and today it went to $3.49 It looks like other places may have gone up as well.
South Bend IN – Speedway & some others went to $3.49 yesterday. Closest Speedway to ND went from $3.29 to $3.49. Speedway at the next stop light went from $3.29 to $3.19 & still there this morning. Costco $2.91.
Hard to tell where else is spiking since gasbuddy downgraded their website. It shows only 10 of the cheapest & no longer any of the highest. The map only shows the cheapest 10 also until clicking around awhile on the website you can lookup by zip code & map of the entire USA. Seems to be no more price history or current avg either. I hope they fix the downgraded website soon. I kept southbendgasprices.com open on my phone so I could quickly see if a spike was underway & see what Costco was at.
A Speedway next to the Kroger I mentioned yesterday went from $3.31 to $3.49 yesterday. The Kroger went from $3.39 to $3.49. I ran to Kroger today during lunch and the Speedway was back down to $3.31. Kroger was still at $3.49.
Couche Tard buying GetGo might be why GetGo was leading the pack on price resets in central Indiana the last month or so. Couche Tard with GetGo and 7eleven/Speedway will make price resets more instantaneously felt if they choose to play us that way. GasBuddy going FUBAR doesn’t help fighting back.
GetGo Kroger Speedway and some BPs up currently around $3.49 in Madison and Delaware county per whats left of GasBuddy.
Until GB discovers they missed it, Oregongasprices.com is still in the old format. (Shhh.) You can click on the search and plug in any US zip code. If you map one of those stations and zoom out you can broaden the display area. Thanks to one of the followers of my Chicago price thread on reddit for that tidbit.
Wish GasBuddy would get it together. They sent me a new card but I cannot use it since I opened up a new bank account and I’ve been waiting for GasBuddy to confirm the new account information for over 3 months now…
And u was wondering why the site was showing me prices not in my search area instead of the stations where I am looking.
South Bend IN – Speedway by ND went from 3.29 to 3.49 now 3.36 last few days. Speedway at the next light went 3.29, 3.19, 3.39. lol.
Jim Kaplan: Yep I’ve been using that Oregon site! I agree, shhhh.
I was able to fill up some stuff yesterday at the Kroger I mentioned earlier in this thread for $3.31. Today it was back up to $3.45. So, it was $3.39 Monday, went to $3.49 Tuesday I believe, down to $3.31 Thursday and back up to $3.45 Friday.
I can’t say that I’ve ever observed anything like that before at this location.
Had a Greedway spike of $3.599 in SW Ohio last Thursday but it didn’t roll through quite as planned. Some of the stations at $3.39 and below didn’t budge.
The result, many stations this Friday are at $3.25-$3.29. Filled up yesterday at Marathon in Cincinnati/Cheviot Suburb yesterday for $3.159 minus a 7¢ Summer discount = $3.089/gal.
Good find on the Oregon site, thanks!
Spike underway in Fort Wayne. From as low as $2.99 on the west side up .50 to $3.49. So much for the end of the driving season.