Comment on the July 7 prediction: CORRECT as written, as oil prices remained a bit elevated, and either $3.49 or $3.59 found their way to Michigan and Indiana by July 12.
Wednesday, July 19, 2023, 4:00 PM: I was surprised this morning to receive the following notification on my phone: “UGA reached a 52 week high at $67.50”. UGA is the “United States Gasoline Fund”, an ETF that you can buy and sell that is “designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices”, in particular connected to the RBOB prices on NYMEX. It is an odd sort of security, and it doesn’t line up that well with retail gas prices. For instance, a year ago retail prices in Michigan were around $4.59 a gallon, and UGA was lower than today, at about $62 a share. The notification means that UGA is the highest it has been since last July.
The direction of UGA will sometimes give us a clue to help win The Gas Game. UGA is going up slowly, and so are wholesale prices for gas, following a recent, mild upward move in oil prices. None of these moves have been severe, but looking over the past week, there’s a good chance of a reset to $3.69 over the next few days. That won’t be a big deal at a lot of stations that are still at $3.59, but consider this a caution to our readers. -EA