Curse of Reformulated Chicago Summer Gas

Sunday, June 11, 2023, 4:00 PM: I haven’t made time recently to post an update, because I keep looking at the calculations and expecting prices to drop a bit. Instead, we got a hike last Tuesday, back to $3.69, and it was one that was broadly embraced. What’s going on?

A clue can be found in the comments from my last post, from Jim Kaplan, who noted “a 25c jump in wholesale for our boutique blend”. While oil prices have been stuck at around $70 a barrel since early May, wholesale gasoline prices have ticked upwards. The “boutique blend” is described in this 2012 article: “Chicago … requires a unique blend of summer gasoline made at relatively few refineries. Most of the Chicago blend comes from just a few refineries near Chicago. They include a BP refinery in Whiting, Ind., an Exxon Mobil plant near Joliet and a Citgo plant near Lemont.”

From data I have, the wholesale price of Chicago Summer Gas is up at least 40 cents since the beginning of May. We don’t see this sort of ramp up every summer, but when retail prices hit $5.19 a year ago in Michigan, that was one of the culprits. I don’t have any insight as to what is going on right now to create higher prices, but I suspect it is some unstated, dreaded “refinery issues”.

So, it’s hard to play the Gas Game right now. Kaplan posted his note on Friday, so we could see … ugh … $3.89 on Monday or Tuesday? Let’s hope not, but I recommend filling up on Monday morning. ($3.52 in the southwest part of Kent County!) – EA

Updated: June 11, 2023 — 3:55 pm

10 Comments

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  1. Speedway hiking to $4.49/$4.59 in Chicagoland. Per Gasbuddy spot RFG for Chicago/Milwaukee is 52 cents above RFG for the rest of the western Great Lakes.

  2. On a day RBOB is down 11 cents….

  3. ChrisDG74….Happens often enough. The decision was probably already made in the morning. Actually spot RBOB (Chicago blend) dropped 17c.. Instant extra profit.

  4. Oh I know it’s all pre-planned. Doesn’t make it any less aggrevating.

  5. $4.19 in Lake and Porter Counties led by Family Express

  6. $3.30’s in Houghton Lake this morning, but 3.60’s in Grayling

  7. Speedway following in NW Indiana to $4.19, but also jumped to $4.19 in LaPorte County as well

  8. South Bend IN – Prices still going lower here. Both Speedways by ND down to $3.39. The 3 Family Express at $3.35, $3.43 & $3.45. Costco $3.11.
    SBN avg $3.442

    Niles MI – WMT $3.34. Niles Speedway at $3.79 though, higher than anybody.

  9. Some nice competition in Caledonia Michigan as low as $3.19/gal at Circle k

  10. Apparently the gas wars over in Caledonia stations back up to 349

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