National Market Wants Lower Prices; Local Market, No So Much

Sunday, September 25, 2022, 2PM: We should have The Spike Line data back by the end of this coming week. (Sorry for the inconvenience.) Speaking of inconvenience, despite oil falling below $80 a barrel, due to some refinery issues wholesale prices in the Midwest have ramped up. Today (Sunday), we are seeing the fruits of this activity, with $4.19’s in Lowell, and some new $3.99’s in Walker. It looks like Hudsonville is still a great place to buy gas right now ($3.62).

If the refinery issues can be sorted out quickly, retail prices would head much lower. -EA

Updated: September 25, 2022 — 1:58 pm


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  1. Nothing like some refinery “issues” to throw cold water on a good price drop.

  2. South Bend IN – On Wednesday 9.21 it spiked to $3.89. Yesterday I noticed a bunch of Phillips at 4.09. Now I see a 4 random stations listed at 4.29.
    Costco has gone from $3.29 on Wed to 3.40 yesterday and 3.49 today.
    SBN Avg 3.64 on 9.20 & 3.85 today.

  3. Looks like the IL hike in CHicagoland is going to be just $4.19 ($4.29 Cook County). This is far below my normal spike calculation, base on Axxis wholesale price through 6 PM tonight which would be closer to $4.65. The reason: the crazy spike last week in SPOT prices to $1 over NYMEX RBOB Friday appears to be evaporating today. That and maybe they built up a war chest with high margins much of the summer to sustain big losses for a day or two.

  4. Indy area spike to $3.999.

  5. Places in greater GR area are up anywhere from 4.19 to 4.39.

  6. $3.699 reset in Ohio.

  7. Indy apparently had a second spike to $4.099.

  8. NW Indiana to $4.199. Led by Family Express.

  9. Chicago was certainly primed for a hike today as our target price (complement to the spike line) was 40c higher than Monday’s hike price. Nada. Now spot was off 8c today. Hikes on Friday are not common. Maybe dodged a bullet.

  10. Chi spot up 27c back to $1 over NYMEX and just about identical close to a week ago. Assuming Speedway will have a stronger reaction next Monday than they did last Monday. Assuming the new management doesn’t do weekend hikes.

  11. Indy area spike to $4.299.

  12. Seeing $3.999s pop up in South West Ohio.

  13. South Bend IN – Speedway & Family Express leading a $4.29 spike today.
    SBN avg $4.04. Costco $3.83.

    I see Speedway 4.29 in Niles MI also. WMT 3.99.

  14. $3.999 in Toledo.

    Dunno if the refinery here is back online. Is this Ian pricing in the market?

  15. Family Express to 4.59 in NW Indiana

  16. $4.59/4.69 in Chicagoland

  17. Scott…
    Toledo is down for a long time according to the reports I read. And Whiting IN is not up to full capacity.

  18. Good year to be a snowbird if you avoid the hurricane damage.

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