I Can Live with $1.49

Comment on the April 21 predictions: In west Michigan, there were some lower prices, but not much. Not going to give that prediction a grade.

Sunday, May 3, 2020, Noon: There was a quiet wave of price resets in the Midwest the past week, landing at $1.49 in most communities. There was a bit of drama — for instance, gas was below 80 cents in Wisconsin for a while. However, in west Michigan, prices were pretty stable since mid-April, so the hike was mild, or even non-existent.

Last we reported, oil prices were NEGATIVE, so what led to the price reset? First, with new futures contracts, oil prices returned to the $20/barrel level in the past week. Second, demand for gasoline began to grow, as certain states softened their coronavirus-based lockdowns. Third, refiners began shipping reformulated “summer gas”, as required by law to reduce air pollution. Wholesale prices rose by 40 cents a gallon the past two weeks, and adding in the usual sales taxes and other fees, $1.49 aligns with our typical calculations.

If anything, we may see another hike this coming week. I’m not going to make that a formal prediction, but it feels like the Gas Game board that got whacked in early March is now back on the table. -EA

Updated: May 3, 2020 — 11:24 am

14 Comments

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  1. $1.55 rolling out in Michigan

  2. Only one Speedway here every went below $1.55 at bottom. lol. Have seen prices rise to $1.99 and $1.89 at a lot of Chicagoland Speedway stations. Chicago RBOB spot closed Friday 25c OVER Chicago CBOB spot. We may see $2.099 here early this week

  3. travelling through central ohio over the weekend reset in prices seems to be back in the 1.59-1.69 range- thus maintaining the ‘standard’ 30-40c margin again

  4. Chicago RBOB spot up 62.5c in two weeks – & it is presently 23c over CBOB. Must be supply issues. Chicago contract wholesale up 59c in 12 days. Most Speedway went up to $1.99 in the last 24 hours. Looking at a hike to $2.15 maybe this week. 🙁

  5. $1.799 now in Ohio. Up 70% in under a week….

  6. Yup oil is on a roll and Big Red will have gas over $2 bucks soon

  7. $1.799 spike in Indy area as well.

  8. $2.15/2.19 rolling out in Chicagoland….

  9. Gas up to $1.75 today in Michigan

  10. South Bend IN – $peedway $pike +.20 to $1.79 is underway, 6 days after the last .20+ spike to 1.59.
    SBN avg 1.55, was 1.26 a week ago.

    Niles MI $peedway also at $1.79

  11. Just read an article in which the “experts” believe a 60% jump in futures prices may be too much too soon.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-oil-price-rebound-may-have-gone-too-far-based-on-just-tentative-supply-and-demand-improvements/ar-BB13JQWK

  12. South Bend IN – A few stations pushing it up another .10 to $1.89. $peedway & Family Express.
    SBN AVG 1.78

    Niles MI no change yet at 1.74-1.79

  13. Second hike in 3 days in Chicagoland, even after zero stations had retreated from the first one Monday. Up another 10-16c to unprecedented margins (to compensate for lower volume I guess) $2,25/2.35. Seeing even higher margins (not driven by Speedway) in downstate locations such as Champaign and Peoria where $2.19 prices have taken hold even with wholesale that’s 20c lower than Chicagoland.

  14. and speedway pulls the trigger for a second time in 3 days 1.899 NW ohio – up 50c in just over a week

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