Comment on the December 3 prediction: Absolutely CORRECT, as prices reset on 12/4 to $2.59 in Michigan. Since then, we have slowly moved lower.
Sunday, December 17, 2017, 7:00PM: Oil and gas prices have been a real snoozer so far in December, other than the reset on the 4th, and what was the deal in Fort Wayne last Thursday? I think we reset this week, back to $2.59 or so to celebrate Christmas, which would not be a big deal in Walker ($2.48 right now) but would be bigger deal on Plainfield ($2.29 at the moment). Still looking for prices to climb in early 2018, because that’s usually what happens in the early part of the year. -EA
Nw Ohio rt 20 corridor steady around 2.25-2.35 and given the roller coater Fall of prices looks like we will be exiting the year only 10-15c above last years prices. That being said early in a year prices seem to dip a little depending on how much of a ‘fire sale’ is needed to start offloading winter blend in February- my how quickly it rolls around !!. Seasons greeting to all the ‘gasgame’ players. Keep playing the game. Predicting the spikes and seeking out the best deals locally
Ed, I love the service here, but please don’t foment the “holiday spike” myth. There are people here who actually believe there is such a thing, contrary to all evidence. We can go back through years of data to show that prices generally spike once every one to two weeks, and that it’s only random chance when spikes occur during some driving holiday weeks (while failing to occur at all during many other holiday weeks).
If the price spikes this week, it’s because the margins call for it, not because of the holiday.
Thanks for the post though. Otherwise, the information was useful.
Ren, would those margins be the ones that put retail a full dollar over Spot if Ed’s assessment is correct?
What holiday was it last week when we saw those margins?
Gassed up today for 238 just in case.
just filled up on way to work for 2.23 after seeing the massive jump in spot. Ohio fate sealed for today I expect..2.499 or maybe 2.559 on the way..just in time to start to catch the early holiday travellers
Chicago spot up 10x more than New York…sorry Ren, but Merry Christmas from your upper Midwest area gasoline refiners and retailers.
Thornton’s has been predictable about issuing a special 6 cents off fuel coupon the day before spikes hit for the last several spikes. Got the coupon yesterday, filled up today for $2.18.
Speedway going up to 2.65 in West Michigan
Well, this is confusing. Posted by UPI at 8:57 a.m. today. Someone at UPI didn’t get the memo.
https://www.upi.com/Energy-News/2017/12/19/US-gasoline-prices-move-lower-into-holiday-travel-season/2951513688815/
Not sure how that’s confusing, it’s not a localized story and its accurate at the time it was written
2.45 for Ohio..could have been worse. rt20 corridor its between 15-20c jump
Point well taken, Patrick, and the article did include that the Great Lakes region is the most volatile but at the same time it was pointed out that OH had a 4.5% drop last week without mentioning the fact that Chicago Spot had a substantial jump the day previous to the article being published.
Maybe this one won’t be deleted if I praise Ed…dead on again Ed. $2.59 spike underway in the Hoosier state. At least a record number of people weren’t planning on traveling this weekend for a holiday that isn’t next week…Happy Holidays from Indiana’s price collusion experts.
Yup, that’s two spikes in 6 days for the lucky Hoosier state. Big Red must be hurting for Christmas cash. Any hurricanes off the Gulf Coast? Oh wait it’s two days away from winter
And to think Chris…we haven’t been at or below the spike line in 6 weeks. So it must just be those “market forces” at work, eh?
Those crazy market forces! Got a chuckle out of the “At least a record number of people weren’t planning on traveling this weekend for a holiday that isn’t next week” comment.
The 2 previous spikes prior to Dec 13th, stations near me didn’t jump at all, one of which surprisingly is a Big Red. Will they deliver a lump of coal tomorrow or some Christmas cheer?
Spot is up to $1.82 at mid day….Maybe Big Red will spike next on Christmas Day to follow their 6 day cycle
So more ‘good news’ refinery problems! Hurrah!
https://www.wthr.com/article/refinery-problems-expected-to-impact-indiana-gas-prices
Critical refinery shutdowns in tbe upper midwest twice in less than 2 months….I’m sure it happens everywhere though, right?
ok was going to ask why the soaring prices..but seems there is a “reason”
Any time any news outlet mentions “lower gas prices,” it’s really code for “get it while you can!” (And they can also add “Merry Christmas, bee-yatches!!”)
Greed(way) knows no bounds!
Anybody guess who will get your tax relief dollars BEFOR you do? Sorry, couldn’t resist the sarcasm.
Chris…Speedway will NOT hike prices on Christmas Day, though another big jump in spot tomorrow might trigger one before Christmas.
ok..guess the Tuesday spike in many places did not happen..and those that did have quickly reversed it..so when they go for “the big” one today tuesday can be forgotton about
Speedway down the street…2.299 Tuesday..Tuesday afternoon 2.459..this morning 2.249…my guess 2.599 this afteroon
I never see other regions having as many refinery issues as us. Whiting’s expansion was supposed to be the cure-all, and things have only gotten worse….
@renbutler OK, I’ll be more careful. We did get a Christmas “present” on Tuesday, but that it happened this week is coincidental.
I wonder how often these refinery “issues” happen just before a holiday? Or just after a report of gas prices falling or staying stable?
Looking at the negative Spike Line Deviations, Ed, we may get a second “present” very quickly. It’s odd that GB has yet to declare a Price Reset for SE MI even though in my immediate area 10 stations have gone to $2.59 and another 8 to $2.65 from $2.32 a couple of days ago. All we get is the Red upward bullet, “Prices Rising.”
Costco and Sam’s are still selling at $2.28 as I type.
2nd hike in 2 days in Chicagoland. Up a dime from the last one to keep pace with wholesale. Whatever happened to the bottom part of the Speedway price cycle curve?
With spot climbing to $1.90 and $1 dollar margins becoming more and more the norm, we’re just 10 cents away from $3 gas. Would not be surprised to see spot finish out the day even higher with tomorrow being the cherry on top. I’m sure these refinery issues have the Big Red execs smiling and high fiving one another
Meijer text alerting to Indy spike. Gas buddy showing Indy prices stable with $2.56 avg. Guess I’ll top off for $2.40 if I can today.
Chris keeps referring to margins of $1, but I think that he is forgetting to allow for taxes. In Michigan that adds 60-70+ cents to the rack price leaving margins at far less than $1 even before an allowance for freight.
Margin, $1 dollar over spot, however you’d like to phrase it
Spike to 2.69 in Indy. Twice in one week. Ugh.
2 spikes in South Bend IN this week on Tuesday & Thursday. Each about .10 or so, now $2.69.
Can’t believe Speedway hasn’t jumped in MI today. I hope I didn’t jinx it.
Where are you, number? All three of Big Red’s stations near me in SE MI went to $2.65 two days ago.
Happy New Year from “Big Red” going up to $2.75 in the Grand Rapids area.
Catch those holiday travelers on their way home!!!!!
Same $2.75 for the Indy area too.
3rd hike in 8 days. Really unexpected. The Speedway price cycle has had the bottom cut off of it.
Well, at least this spike didn’t come right before a holiday weekend. Just like the last one didnt come right before a holiday weekend.
30 cents over spot….guess they wanted to end the year on a high note…
Just a coincidence, Rufus. Market forces and all, heh heh.
Happy New Year to all the Gas Game crowd.
Can’t seem to comment on the new post (the option is not available).
Check out this interesting AMA on reddit regarding price manipulation: https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/7nq4m5/i_investigate_oil_companies_that_manipulate/
Some of our Shell and Sunoco stations now have a 40 cent difference between grades. The Kroger stations I frequent still have yet to raise from 25¢ to 30¢ between grades. Market forces? lol