Independence Day: Resurgence

Comment on the June 15 prediction:  We haven’t seen a price hike since June 8, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016, 9:00PM:  Hey Matt in Lansing!  This one is for you ….  In the past three weeks, we’ve seen retail prices in Michigan fall from $2.79 to down to close to $2.  That’s because wholesale prices were artificially high earlier in the month due to a short-term supply squeeze, and #Brexit hasn’t helped the energy markets much the past week.  However, the last two days, we’ve seen some recovery in the wholesale price, while retail prices continue to drop, and we are near price-reset territory.  Throw in a Thursday before a 3-day holiday weekend, and the best bet is that we see prices rise on Thursday.  $2.49?

Updated: June 29, 2016 — 8:47 pm


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  1. Saw what is hopefully an anomaly in Toledo–Marathon station in the inner-city area at $2.899! I hope that’s not what GREEDway has in mind, as that would spike things over $1.00/gal. in some parts of town.

  2. I filled up this morning for $1.98. Never thought I’d see that again until fall. Spot is down to $1.43 at mid-day and surprisingly, no Gas Buddy alerts on a spike.

    Did the Big Red execs start their 4th of July weekend a few days ago thinking “we’ll just give ’em a big spike prior to Labor Day” or are they planning something for tomorrow? Time will tell

  3. $2.137 South Bend IN avg.
    $1.99 at Costco now. $2.03 west side WMT and the stations in that area.
    $2.09-$2.29 Niles MI (Speedway $2.23)

  4. Spot hardly moved today. Given that and the holiday weekend underway, I’d say the odds are against a hike tomorrow.

    I would however expect a hike long before Labor Day Chris.

  5. And just at this moment, a squirrel farted!

  6. I meant to say “an extra large spike” prior to Labor Day to make up for it if they don’t give us one today

  7. $2.03 in Monroe and $2.05 in Belding again. Prices drop for a holiday? Who’d a thunk it?
    Nice and I sure as hell am NOT looking a gift horse in the mouth….

  8. Yet another holiday NON-spike — which will promptly be forgotten in favor of the spikes that DO happen to occur before holidays, even though they aren’t really related to the holiday.

    Some of you folks need to read up on confirmation bias. And if you already know about it, read it not to confirm what you think about others, but really think about how it affects what you know about YOURSELF.

    Then start reading about economics and free markets…

    Have a great holiday!

  9. With 30-35 spikes a year or on average every 11-12 the odds of falling in a window that some would say makes a spike a holiday spike are large. The spikes are clustered more in the first 5-6 months and December. Long term 4th of July might be the least likely to see a spike.

  10. $1.99 at numerous stations in Belding. $2.09 at the local Costco and Sams. $2.11 at southeast GRR stations. The rest of the area around GRR may be as high as the $2.40’s.

  11. Prices in Lansing have been dropping like a feather.

  12. Average in Cincy is STILL 2.35….
    It would be higher if not for a price war going on in Milford, at 2.099.

  13. $1.89 in Fort Wayne. I’m loving it. Everything topped off. Every vehicle and every can. You know these prices won’t last the week. But I’ll take it for now.

  14. Market forces at work TimmP! Covington Kentucky is still at $2.47…unbelieveably high

  15. still the big spread NW ohio RT 20 corridor
    1.90 in places..2.25 in others close by

    the gap has narrowed..just seen a 2.099 at end of street and 1.95 8 miles away..15c gap that was 30c this time last week

    always makes for an interesting try and find the lowest prices around..guess that another reason this is “the gas game”

    Happy and safe holiday everyone..lets see what happens tomorrow when the “execs” crawl back to their desks

  16. SW Ohio still 90 cents over spot, a full month after that artificial spike.
    Gotta love it……

  17. I’ve seen evidence of a few Speedway stations go up to $2.19 today on south side of Indy where serious gas war ($1.69) is going on. Not sure if it’s evidence of a larger spike coming or whether they’re following a few other stations in the area up since losing money so much.

  18. Confirmed. The Big Red hike is on. Going to $2.19 in Indy/Indiana. Haven’t seen evidence yet in Michigan or Ohio but mostly have been monitoring Indiana since I live here.

  19. With the state average being $2.15, most in Ohio would have to come DOWN to match that price.

  20. Agreed, ChrisDG74, at least for Ann Arbor/Washtenaw County. I can count on one hand the number of stations selling gas for less than $2.19 (actually only 2) in my area. With AA average of $2.36, we’d love to see a $2.19 price point. State avg. is $2.29.

  21. Going to $2.19 in South Bend IN also. Time to fill up at Costco for $1.92. SBN avg now $2.08

  22. Muncie, Indiana $2.19. Filled for $1.90 before an assumed area wide spike. Speedway leading the pack as usual.

  23. Spot dropped 6 cents today to $1.32. I imagine this spike will be short lived. Of course for those in the Cincinnati area that won’t be the case (right ChrisDG74)

  24. Still 96 cents over spot, at $2.28 in Cincy. Take out Milford, at $1.97, and we’re over $2.30.
    Amazing what happens when you only have 2 Speedways within a 4-mile radius(Milford).
    I have at least TEN within a 4-mile radius of my house. Draw your own conclusions.
    Ohio as a whole, still 82 over, at $2.14.

    This state won’t be spiking, at all.

  25. Milford down another penny. $1.96 now.

  26. Some stations up to $2.19 on Indy’s south side. Some still in the $1.70s and even a few $1.69s. Interesting. And Speedways are among those that have not spiked in this area.

  27. Mike - Kalamazoo

    Wow, 1.70’s.. haven’t dropped below around 2.10 here in sw michigan..

  28. Big Red is going soft. They were the only station near my house to spike (went to $2.19). After the others thumbed their noses, Big Red has dropped her back down to $1.99 already

  29. With any luck Cincinnati will finally be at the national average of $2.23+ in the next day or two.

    On the West side of Cincinnati the best we can do is a ridiculous $2.399. We drive 20 minutes or more away to Lawrenceburg/Aurora, Indiana and we can get gas as cheap as $1.949 which is what we do.

  30. Price stability makes zone pricing more obvious. Therefore it’s better if prices change constantly.

    But it’s market forces doing it so we’re fine 🙂

  31. Today I was caught empty handed with zero gas on the way to Costco. I ran on fumes to the Speedway asking for 2.39 (didn’t check the online price list) and put in 0.5 gallons. Then filled at Costco plus a couple gas cans for 1.97 I think.

    They lost more on the credit card processing fee than they made. Ummm… what an idea.

  32. end of street prices just touched the 1.99 mark over the weekend..still10-15c above some areas but the gap has finally narrowed. Curiously some places went to 1.95 friday before 4th july weekend and have not moved since

    with a lot stations NW ohio now below the spike line sense a reset coming this week – gas buddy reporting prices stable this morning. I would go for a 2.199 by wednesday..if not a few cents higher as the margins look very thin right now

    still who would have predicted 4 weeks of stability and falling prices this time of the year?..although I do think some areas really profited given the vast differences in prices

  33. Local news reporting gas prices down, Gas Buddy showing “stable” prices – price hike today?

  34. Turbo – You sound like me. I’d put in $.50 to get me down the road to my local Sams Club where they beat Speedway by as much as $.50/gallon.

  35. Oil up 4.5% today and spot up a bit to $1.38. Hope that doesn’t translate to a Thursday gas spike

  36. Probably Friday. Expensive crude oil doesn’t move thru the pipeline that fast 🙂

    We can thank our expert who made sure to remind us how low gasoline is these days…

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