Saturday, March 15, 2025, 7 AM: In our last post, we saw Marathon attempt a hike to $3.15. Once again, most competitors were not interested in following. Some $3.09’s popped up a few days later, but it wasn’t until Thursday the 13th that a region-wide reset to that price occurred.
Those widespread resets have been few and far between for months, and I continue to think about why that has been the case. Just looking at the numbers, wholesale prices have been incredibly stable since mid-October, including oil prices vibrating around $70 a barrel. The seasonal pattern in gasoline prices — a tendency to go lower from Labor Day to Christmas and then rise the first half of the yea — has been there, but mild.
Then I ponder the political environment. As we discussed in February, Speedway and friends were a lot more aggressive with their retail pricing last year, when Biden was president. Was that a coincidence? Just asking questions.
Oil prices have been falling since January 15 and that should keep gas prices tame for the rest of the month. I predict no new hikes or resets for the upcoming week. -EA
Here in Chicagland our full summer blend is now trading on the spot market, at a 17c premium to CBOB. I expect a significant hike very soon (next 1-3 days)
South Bend IN – Family Express spike from $2.99 to $3.29 today. Filled up at Costco for $2.89 yesterday. Lots of $2.99 around.
Family Express attempting $3.29 in NW Indiana. We will see if Speedway follows.
Indy area spike this morning to $3.299
They’ve become predictable again. $3.59 in NE IL.
Up $.60 in NE Indiana in a single week.