A Tale of Four Different Gas Price Dynamics

Comment on the May 5 prediction: Kind of WRONG, as a hike back to $3.79 was implemented on May 8, led by our friends the Big M. K&G neighborhoods kept their prices lower.

Sunday, May 19, 2024, 8 AM: We continue with our tale of four different gas price dynamics. We saw a jump to $3.69 in Fort Wayne on May 7th, but those prices are back in the $3.30’s in the stations I watch. Here in west Michigan, as noted in the Comment, prices jumped to $3.79 on May 8th, and there are still a bunch of stations in the $3.60’s. But certain places in west Michigan are a relative gas price paradise, such as $3.25 in Wyoming. And, now that I have started to track Costco, as a check on my 0-cent margin price calculation, I see that so far in May, all they have been doing is holding steady or going lower, down to $3.19 or so.

But, oil prices are starting to rise again after a recent swoon below $80 a barrel, and wholesale gas prices are following. A recent rally in ethanol prices doesn’t help, either. I am expecting a price reset on Monday or Tuesday, back to at least $3.79 in Michigan, but it could be higher than that. The stock price in VLO is often a tell, too. -EA

Updated: May 19, 2024 — 8:11 am


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  1. GetGo pushing back up to $3.79. GetGo likes your money.

  2. Hike to $4.09/4.19 in Chicagoland. A dime less than the last one even though wholesale was 5c higher than last time. So much for the higher summer margins theory.

  3. Agreed Joe, Greedway quickly matching $3.799 in Indy metro area.

  4. Chicago RFG spot up 35c today while regular spot was down 6c. Wonder what’s up.

  5. $3.99 led by Family Express in NW Indiana.

  6. Up another 40c today at most Chicagoland Speedways, now $4.49/4.59.

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