Dancing Around That $3 Price Point

Sunday, December 12, 2021, 9AM: I wrote two weeks ago that “you should be able to find gas under $3 if you know where to look, and those places above $3.40 still need to get with the program.” What happened since then? First, many of the $2.99’s that weekend disappeared, due to a stealthy reset to $3.29 in many places in west Michigan (boo!). This hike anticipated a rebound in oil prices, from $66 to $71, but we are still below the $80 a barrel we were in early November. Then the past week, without further recovery in oil prices, retail competition became the primary driver again, and I saw $2.89 at a Speedway on Leonard on Saturday.

Based on my spreadsheet this weekend, I can make the case for retail prices to drop into the $2.70’s, and that is what we see along the Alpine Ave/Comstock Park/Sparta cooridor, and that’s the best place to fill up today. Lowell has been perplexing, because prices there are usually pretty competitive, but they are at $3.21.

We’re at a spot that if we get any rally in oil prices, I would expect a general reset to the $3.09-$3.19 range. But, if not, you’ll see that race down to $2.79 in other parts of the region. But, prices will be higher in January than before Christmas. They almost always are. -EA

Updated: December 12, 2021 — 9:04 am


Add a Comment
  1. Yeah, I saw the same thing in NW Indiana. They tried a 3.39 jump and most places came right back down to the low 3’s.

  2. We had a reset to $3.19 last Thursday at all the couple dozen IL Speedways that were below. But the vast majority stayed where they were, already above $3.19. In fact some of the Speedways have not retreated a penny yet from the hike a week before Thanksgiving, still $3.59 and one at $3.79. Seeing less competition in a general sense then we saw before the sale of Speedway to 7-11 and the partial hikes of the cheap stations maintain higher margins on average I believe. With several Speedways back below $3, we are set up for another partial hike at the low prices stations.

  3. South Bend IN – Speedways by ND recently went from $2.99 to $3.29 & now $2.92 today. Family Express tried ~ $3.39 and they are now at $2.89 & two at $2.99. The $2.89 Fam Exp. station had a shooting a few days ago at it.

  4. 6 Days ago Speedway raised all those below $3.19 up to $3.19. Today, wholesale was 6c lower so they raised everyone to $3.29. New ball game for Speedway in Chicagoland. If they don’t have to compete they don’t, so some of the sites are still at their $3.59 pre Thanksgiving hike price

  5. Family Express raising to 3.19 in NW Indiana.

  6. Justin….makes sense after a 10c drop in Chicago wholesale the previous 2 days. LOL. I expect Speedway might do another hike tomorrow if NYMEX futures stay up today and wholesale prices rebound tonight…though about 1/2 the stations would be above the new hiked price already. New modus operandi by 7-11 owned Speedway. at least in the Chicago market,

  7. Jim – Naturally! LOL. Though Speedway has not joined in yet in NW Indiana. Maybe they are reminding Family Express that they are in charge??? Hopefully these two can figure it out as it makes predicting a littler tricker. LOL

  8. Family Express $3.19 in South Bend IN also now. Don’t see any others spiking. Costco $2.79, was $2.77 the other day.

    Niles MI 2.81-2.89

  9. Family Express spiking to $3.29 in NW Indiana.

  10. Yet another attack only on the low hanging fruit in Chicagoland. All Speedways that had dropped below $3 have been raised to $3.19. Stations remain at $3.00-3.18 – and as high as $3.79. Still thinking that margins are low enough to raise almost everyone

  11. Most Speedways in NW Indiana are not joining in the on the increase. 3rd increase in a row. In fact in Michigan City, they dropped 3 cents! Most other stations went up and followed higher. Speedways trying to make a statement that they are the good guys now??

  12. McCordsville and NE Indianapolis have been in the upper $2.70s for around 2 weeks. Worked out for a cheaper fill as we passed through over the holidays.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please leave these two fields as-is:

Protected by Invisible Defender. Showed 403 to 1,754,460 bad guys.


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

TheGasGame.com (c) All Rights Reserved Frontier Theme