Taxes per mile instead of per gallon?

Comment on the April 20 prediction: It was absolutely CORRECT, as prices rose to $2.99. But, I missed the hike on May 1.

Sunday, May 5, 2019, 11AM: Gas prices in California are over $4, and they are ready to go over $3 here. We may get a break short-term, as oil prices have dropped from $66 to $62 a barrel recently. Meanwhile, with the idea of a large per-gallon tax being proposed by the Governor, there is talk of other ways to think about raising enough revenues to keep the roads fixed, such as per-mile changes and congestion pricing. The Prius drivers of the world, getting 50-60 mpg, end up paying much less per mile that a typical car.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting graphic from OPIS that indicates what can influence gas prices along each part of the chain.

Only prediction today is that gas prices should drop slowly but steadily this week, and I doubt we’ll see a hike. -EA

Updated: May 5, 2019 — 10:58 am


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  1. That last connection in the graphic between rack and retail probably has a much better correlation outside of Speedway territory. lol That graphic should have “Speedway effect” in between rack and retail. Point being retails rises at least as much in response to falling pump prices as to rising rack prices,

  2. A 14.6 c hike in boutique Chicago-Gary-Milwaukee spot yesterday and voila: $3.29-3.39 at area Speedways today. 🙁

  3. It looks like there may be something wrong with your spike line price for Michigan. Chicago spot of 2.01 + taxes = 2.59864 and you are showing less than that as the spike line price.

  4. Jeannie, did you note the -.27 Rack Adjustment?

  5. $2.01 + .79 = $2.80 – .27 = $2.53 (listed at @2.5286).

  6. 2.99 spike underway here in Flint, MI. Welcome to the new normal. I smell a 3.50 Summer coming up. Worse if shenanigans escalate with Iran & Venezuela. Because, Markets uber alles.

  7. Yep 2.99 in Kazoo area too..

  8. Indy area hike to $2.959 underway.

  9. Gasbuddy says going to $2.95 in Indy. Still plenty of $2.75 options right now.

  10. I saw the rack adjustment but have no idea what it is based on. There is not a 27 cpg discount to Chicago spot at racks in Michigan.

  11. South Bend IN – heading to $2.95 here. It was 2.77 by ND this morning. Time to visit Coscto for $2.55.

    Niles MI also going to $2.95.

  12. Toledo to $2.799. And I stopped at GREEDWay for the “get it before we bend the general public over” price! (As I’ve stated before, there is honor among thieves!)

  13. SW Ohio at $2.899, our ‘special’ price, of course. GREEDway in Sharonville, a block from the spiked UDF, had theirs at $2.549 so I filled up there this evening. I’m not proud.

  14. 2.899 showing in NW ohio – Speedway pushes the margin back to 40c .recent history shows short lived , but with just over 2 weeks till the “summer driving season” kicks in who knows

  15. $2.899 failed once again in sw Ohio. $2.699 and lower can be readily had.

  16. I’m all in favor of being taxed per mile instead of per gallon of gas. Sure beats the Indiana arbitrary fee of $50 for a hybrid and $150 for an EV.

  17. $2.599 and lower

  18. South Bend IN – Speedway spike $0.20 to $2.99. Avg was $2.79. Costco & west side Walmart went down a few cents to $2.65.

    No change in Nile MI yet ~ 2.73.

  19. Yesterday, Indy spiked to $2.999.

  20. Not in Indiana. Back to 2.99 with $62 crude.

  21. Back to $3.19 in Chicagoland outside Cook County. At least that’s a dime below the hike of 2 weeks ago. Maybe we have peaked for 2019, which would be “normal” for May absent any strong oil market factors or refinery squeezes.

  22. WTI crude down almost 3% today and gas up 11%….hmmmmmmmm

  23. $2.859 in sw Ohio. Yay!!

  24. Chris, inventories up for the second week in a row also.

  25. Inventories up Jeff AND oil down nicely again today.

    Just scored $2.64 in Fort Wayne

  26. I’m just glad there is no spikes around the holidays.

    There is still a number of stubborn stations around the Greater Cincinnati area in the $2.50. Hoping this leads to yet another spike rejection.

  27. cant help noticing a lot of the 2.70-2.72’s in NW ohio RT 20 area were back at 2.799 last night. given the big fall in oil & spot prices yesterday put the margin back to an impressive 48c a gallon. – seems this spike is holding unlike the previous several…..

  28. Another epic fail of a spike. Plenty of $2.40s and $2.50s to be had less than 48 hours after the spike to $2.859.

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