A weekend spike?

To all the new people here, I’m Bill, and I update The Spike Line that you can find under features in the menu above. It’s been good at predicting price spikes in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio for quite a while. What I am seeing now is Indianapolis with a 12 cent negative margin, Michigan and Ohio are not. That usually means a spike is on the horizon. But Indiana has been in the negative much of the week, so it’s hard to tell what will happen.

Last month I lost weekly rack prices from Convenience Store Decisions. It gave rack prices for Chicago, Indianapolis, Cleveland and Detroit. I used the differences to calculate how Indiana, Michigan and Ohio should look, and it worked well as a predictor. This could be why I’m off, and I hope to figure out an alternative, soon.

That said, a spike should happen soon, and a rare weekend spike is a possibility. -BE

Updated: July 31, 2015 — 9:34 pm


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  1. Bill…
    Since I don’t track the states you do, I don’t know how rare weekend hikes by Speedway are but we had one just 3 Saturday ago and early in 2014, there were 3 consecutive Saturday hikes of which at least some I think occurred in your states. Given that history with the #s you’re throwing out I’d bet on Indianapolis tomorrow. I’ve got CHicago at 50-50, but it’s a guess based one the greediness of their Saturday hike on July 11.

  2. Speedway rising to $2.59 in Grand Rapids this morning.

  3. Meijer just sent their text. Of course that was after the wildcat spike to 2.39 last week.

    Right after Parrick’s radio interview forecasting sub 2.00 prices this fall or winter…

  4. Nothing in sw Ohio yet. Granted sw Ohio is STILL seeing an AVERAGE price of $2.47. Just to be safe, cashed in 800 Kroger points and filled up both cars this morning. Both gas lights were on. $1.469/gallon($2.269 minus points) vs the probable $2.599 (or $2.699 – sw Ohio spiked 10 cents higher than the rest of the state last time) coming Monday.. $1.13 x 28 gallons, will ALMOST pay for dinner tonight.

  5. Indianapolis dipped to -25 cents, which is way overdue. We are getting that Saturday spike, but here in 2014 they went from rare to the norm for a while. Speedway is resetting to $2.499.

  6. I was in Colerain Township NW of Cincinnati helping my brother-in-law out when I figured what the hey. I’m already halfway to Fairfield. I drove out there and found a BP for $2.259. I filled my half full tank and my 5 gallon container of Mower gas. Life is good today.

  7. Had blood drawn today(for health insurance premium discounts – gotta test my cholesterol).
    Drove past the Speedway in Colerain Twp(near the mall). $2.569 at 10:30am. They can stay that high, because there is ZERO competition. Hopefully the Thronton’s going in at Colerain and Galbraith will make them a little more “honest”.

  8. South Bend IN spiked to $2.49 Saturday morning most places were ~ $2.25-2.37. Today Costco went from $2.19 to $2.25.

    Over the state line Niles, MI went to $2.59.

  9. All the stations in Franklin, IN jacked prices from 2.02-2.09 for unleaded to 2.49 on Saturday 8-1.

  10. Looks like Ohio has avoided the spike(for now anyway). Cheapest in the Cincy area is $2.199, 3 miles away from me. Average is STILL $2.44, 14 cents higher than the state average.

  11. In SE Michigan, the latest few rounds of “spikes” actually lowers the price down for us. Prior to this post, gas was about $2.54. Over the weekend, dropped down to $2.49.

  12. Spot prices are not usually quoted for conventional premium but DTN has them closing today 91.5 cents over CBOB! Must be some supply issue (for at least one buyer)

  13. Looks like Ohio gets our spike today/tomorrow.
    $2.599 it is, I guess. Topped off at $2.189 this morning, cheapest in sw Ohio.

  14. Spike underway in Ohio. $2.599.

  15. sw Ohio spiking to $2.599. Rest of Ohio spiking to $2.499.

  16. I might add that Cincinnati has pretty much a stealth spike. That is, all but the lowest two postings on the High Price list have a price higher than $2.59. It would have went by me unnoticed if ChrisDG74 had not posted.

  17. I’m spending this week in a pretty college town many hours west of Speedwaya where my kid is starting grad school. Price variance across the town of 50,000 is 3c a gallon and prices are stable.

    It does put the hoops that Speedwaya residents have to put up with…

  18. It does put the hoops that Speedwaya residents have to put up with into perspective. Also despite the higher speed limits people don’t drive like lunatics and auto diesel is the same as gas… Finally driving is a hundred times easier thanks to far fewer 18-wheelers.

    Go West, Young Man 🙂

  19. Up 10 cents/gal to $2.599 this morning in Hebron, Indiana. Family Express, as usual leading the charge.

  20. Big refinery issues at Whiting over weekend. Follows flaring last week. Largest CDU down, spot way up.

  21. I smell a spike in the air, even though sw Ohio was almost 95 cents over spot yesterday.

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