Crazy Prediction of the Year: $3.75 will stand as the record for a while

Comment on Monday’s posting:  The hike was to $3.75 on Tuesday, which is close enough to be called CORRECT.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008, 10:00 AM:  As readers know, my predictions are short-term, based on the recent wholesale price of gasoline as approximated by NYMEX and AXXIS prices that are posted on public web sites.  Today, I am going to go with my instincts, based on my experience watching markets in general the past twelve years.  I think $3.75 will be the high for the retail price for a while, maybe even for the year.  Other commodities (e.g. gold, soy beans) have stopped going up and started going down, and it feels like it is time for the struggling economy to start affecting the price of energy.

Of course, “feels” is the right word, and I might look foolish in a few weeks with this prediction.  On the other hand, we usually get a high price in late March followed by dropping prices for a few months, and with winter hanging on this year until May, perhaps so has rising prices.

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