Comment on the January 21 prediction: Pretty much CORRECT, as prices slid below $3 in most places in west Michigan and stayed much lower in the Grandville/Jenison area.

Sunday, January 28, 2023, 2:00PM: The price of a barrel of oil rose $5 last week, but wholesale gas prices didn’t do anything. The stock price of gasoline producer Valero (VLO) jumped, though, usually a sign that gas prices are rising, or are about to. It appears the stars are aligning for a price reset by Wednesday, perhaps to $3.09, but maybe $3.19. Gas is still $2.62 in Grandville today (hint, hint). -EA

Comment on the April 31 prediction: No hike the past week, which is what I was suggesting. CORRECT.

Sunday, May 7, 2023, 2:30PM: Oil is down $5 a barrel the past week, as these scattered bank collapses are rattling energy investors. NYMEX gas has followed, down 13 cents a gallon. And we are seeing some nice prices in west Michigan, including $3.17 in the Jenison and Hudsonville area. Prices are as much as 40 cents higher in other parts of Kent County!

If oil turns around a bit this coming week, I expect those $3.17’s will reset to $3.39. It would be nice if the $3.59’s dropped to $3.39, too, but that’s not how the Game usually works. So, fill up tonight if you can. -EA

Comment on the April 16 prediction: CORRECT, as we saw no hikes the past two weeks, and slowly dropping prices.

Sunday, April 30, 2023, 2:00PM: We are having one of our occasional data issues from our source for local CBOB/RBOB prices, so apologies to those following The Spike Line. It also makes it harder to analyze and predict, but using widely-available New York prices can give us a clue. Basically, wholesale prices have been drifting lower, following oil prices, and retail prices have followed. For instance, for the Fort Wayne stations I monitor, after a hike to $3.75 on April 11, prices have been working their way lower, now $3.34. Retail prices have been stickier, in west Michigan though.

What’s next? The beginning of May is always a good time to take stock, as summer approaches, and I doubt we are going to get a repeat of the upward price shock that occurred in late May/early June last year. My plan this week is to fill up for as close to $3.39 as possible. So, I am heading to Hudsonville later this afternoon! -EA

Comment on the July 24 prediction: CORRECT, as prices continued to plummet.

Sunday, July 31, 2022, 2PM: For gas prices, this has been a remarkable, historic year. We started 2022 with gas at about $3 a gallon, watched it climb to over $4 by early March, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, then it backed off, and then that crazy, unprecedented early June series of 20 cent hikes, to over $5 a gallon. Since June 6, it has been nearly two months of prices dropping one or more cents per day, and now we are getting close to $4 a gallon again at a typical station. As I’ve written previously, I think the June hikes had something to do with some trading shenanigans, while the behavior since June 6 has actually been much more typical, when the gap between retail and wholesale prices is large.

It is time to ask ourselves when to expect our 7-11 friends and others to look at the range of retail prices right now, and the wholesale price, and hit the button for a system-wide reset. I guess the answer is, “Not until we have to”, because why not keep retail prices higher if they can? The only things that brings prices down is competition and a lack of customers. So, to those station managers that continue to look to undercut the competition in their neighborhood, even by a penny at a time, thank you. Keep it up. As to “lack of customers”, despite all the recession talk, west Michigan roads are full of traffic, and I haven’t seen that slow down yet.

Prediction time: wholesale prices right now suggest that filling up their own tanks with fresh gas may be costing retailers something like $3.59, so that’s our floor right now. I am still seeing way too many $4.39’s and higher, so I would be shocked if there was a price hike this week. If they are a bit OCD at headquarters about prices, I could see a system-wide reset, but it would be something like $3.99. That would be OK. -EA

Comment on the May 24 prediction: CORRECT, as prices didn’t do much of anything last week, other than a small price war on Alpine Ave. in Grand Rapids.

Monday, May 30, 2022, Noon: Oil prices moved up a few dollars at the end of last week, which I view as one of those near-holiday moves with many traders already on vacation, so it is unclear if that move will translate to a price hike this week, but NYMEX prices rose a bit, too. This is certainly not an environment that would drive gas prices lower, although there are hints of “demand destruction”, meaning fewer customers stopping by to fill up.

Advice of the week: See if you can fill the tank for under $4.49. Don’t be surprised if there is a small hike ($4.69?), but most likely prices don’t move much this week, similar to last week.