Comment on the November 17 prediction: Prices rose the same day, to $3.29. CORRECT.
Sunday, November 30, 2025, 11 AM: Thanksgiving Break is winding down, with inches of fresh snow on the ground in Michigan, and it is time to get back to work. What is working for us right now is that December is historically the month when gas prices finish their fall slide. However, this year’s fall slide didn’t really materialise, as prices have reset at least 18 times since mid-March to $3.29 or $3.39. But prices should be heading lower in December.
To sharpen predictions, what also isn’t working right now is using Costco prices as a proxy for the 0-cent margin price. I’ve only been tracking Costco since April 2024, but last year and this year, after Halloween, Costco prices have been higher than I expect. For instance, this week, with oil nicely below $60 a barrel and wholesale gas prices under $1.80 a gallon, I’d expect Costco to post $2.49-$2.59. Instead, it is $2.74 after a recent foray up to $2.94.
Given weaker wholesale prices lately, I am having a hard time imagining a hike back to $3.29 again this coming week. Looking ahead to the days after Christmas, though, with the change in the gas tax in Michigan, I plan to re-do my spreadsheet, and I would not be surprised to see prices spike on December 31 or January 1. -EA
$2.99 in Indiana and NW Indiana
Ed-
Found this interesting from the owner of Okemos Marathon in trying to “give back” in a small way on his gas prices for Black Friday. He posted this last Wednesday and states his pricing to the public was “slightly above his cost”
Thank you to all of you who helped me connect with a few families in need this year! Also I will be having a black Friday special this year! Gas on Friday will be 2.69 a gallon from open till close (unless we run out)! Sorry for the late announcement but the cost of gas changes daily and I had to know what I am paying for it to make sure I can at least break even on it. I am only promising this for Friday. Today we are 2.99. Meijer and Speedway are 3.04 and Costco is 2.84.
Juice, thanks for the report! $2.69 sounds right to me for that day!