Comment on the June 13 prediction: Yup, prices went back up to $3.99, as predicted. CORRECT.
Sunday, June 22, 2014, 8:45PM: The stocks/gasoline connection has been weaker for a while now. They used to move in tandem. Lately, we’ve seen the Dow and SP hit new all-time highs, but gas prices here in Michigan remain (barely) under $4. (All time high for gas in MI, according to my records: $4.29.) But the recent rally in stocks may have something to do with keeping wholesale gas prices (e.g. NYMEX) at about $3 and the price to retailers at about $3.70. With retail prices getting close to $3.70, I predict we are back to $3.99 soon, probably Tuesday, although it could happen Monday or Wednesday. All in time for the holiday weekend coming up! –Ed A.
That gulf gas sure as heck made a dent in Indiana prices. And the spike today in Delaware County Indiana….4 cents. That’s right, not 40, but 4! “Shot” up to $3.59. Reminds me of all my travels in the south where I’d see stations jump a penny or two at a time, nothing like the Greedway effect we experience. Could that gulf gas have also eased our spike??
I dunno, but I’m not complaining for a change LOL.
With wholesale gas prices in the midwest in decline for over 2 weeks, it does make it tough to figure out Speedway’s price hikes or lack thereof. I still believe it’s mostly about specific minimum average margins being reached in a given market. But as far as $4+ gasoline any time soon it would require a major shock to wholesale pricing for that to happen. Even in the Chicago market my current calculated spike target for Speedway (not happening soon!) is only $3.89.
Long story on the recent supply issues in the Midwest and a general overview of how supplies to Padd 2 work:
http://customercenter.murphyoilusa.com/index.cfm?show=803&product=DTNMKTWRHEADLINENEWS&id=07020A4e
note…this link is a rolling one. It will eventually (in 2-4 days) point to another story.
Pipelines:
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/2014/140702/twipprint.html