CORRECT? WRONG?

Friday, October 9, 2009, 12:30PM: When I first started posting predictions on The Gas Game several years ago, I would label the predictions as CORRECT or WRONG. It was a way for me to figure it if what I was doing had any validity. Also, in order to have a reasonable assessment of my approach, I had to be careful about what was a prediction and what wasn’t. As we moved to this blog format a few years ago, I’ve been very careful to label my postings as either a Prediction or a Commentary for that reason. It is also why sometimes I don’t post anything, because sometimes I have no idea. Sometimes, I’m really busy, too. All in all, I am CORRECT 70% of the time.

I write this for people who wonder why I always come back to CORRECT or WRONG. I am just trying to be accountable. If you can do better than 70%, then you are the Gas Game Champion, right? Long-time readers will recall that a few years ago, I was on a WRONG streak, but I kept labeling my predictions accurately.

This is all a preface to talk about this week. My post on Wednesday was a Commentary, and thank goodness, because if it was a Prediction, it would have been WRONG, as prices rose mysteriously late Thursday to $2.55 a gallon. There was a bit of a jump in NYMEX gas and oil yesterday, but not the type that would lead to a second hike in a week. My experience is that weird hikes like this, perhaps due to someone in the Big Red home office hitting the panic button, tend to mark short-term tops in gas prices, so my gut instinct is not only that we go lower the next few days, but that $2.55 may be the high price for the rest of the year. That’s not an official prediction, though!

Updated: October 9, 2009 — 12:48 pm

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