“Chicago Discount” Clouds Gas Game Crystal Ball

Comment on the April 2 prediction:  We didn’t get a hike until April 7, and it was only up to $2.05, so the prediction was WRONG.

Sunday, April 12, 2009, 5:15 PM:  From February 27 until now, there have been five price hike days, and each time, the hike has been up to a price that was less than I would predict based on either NYMEX or AXXIS numbers.  Patrick’s sources confirm that a “Chicago Discount” has been operational lately, which is surprising this time of year.  If anything, the switchover from “winter gas” to “summer gas” usually leads to shortages and price spikes.  Perhaps this is one (welcome) consequence of the recession.

If NYMEX is to be believed, the 0-cent margin price is $1.99 this weekend, but I don’t have much confidence in the numbers right now, because the 0-cent price could be as low as $1.85 due to the Discount.  With retail prices pretty much in the $1.95-$2.05 range right now, there is no obvious prediction to make, so I won’t.

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