We made it to $2.99! What’s next?

Comment on last Thursday’s prediction:  $2.98 was spotted in Standale on Monday, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008, 1:40PM:  What a month it has been, with crashes in the stock and commodities markets, including oil and gasoline.  At the wholesale level, oil has fallen from $145 a barrel in July to $75 this afternoon.  Wholesale gas prices were $2.77 (NYMEX) and $3.72 (AXXIS) a month ago, and today they are $1.80 and $2.59.  On the street, everywhere gas was $4.19 a gallon, and today you can find it in Allendale for $2.85.  So, where do we go from here?

We continue to see pressures for lower prices from what is happening in New York.  If you use NYMEX, the 0-cent margin price today would be $2.32.  Wow!  But, as Patrick reports, supplies are down in the Midwest again, and we have yet to get over the NYMEX/AXXIS divide that opened up in late July.  In fact, AXXIS prices are up this week, and using that estimate, we get an estimated retail price of something more like $3.32!  Which number to believe?  Although most of my instincts say we continue to go lower, I’m going to pass on making a prediction for the rest of the week, and look to fill up quickly if a price hike is announced.

By the way, thank you Patrick for your continued great work.  Also, readers may be interested to know that The Gas Game’s reach is growing, with recent interviews with the Chicago Tribune and WTOP radio in Washington, DC.