Strange new formula: 1.25*AXXIS-0.4*NYMEX = no prediction

Tuesday, August 12, 2008, 3:45 PM:  Didn’t get to check in last week as I was traveling and unable to connect to the Internet.  Imagine my surprise, though, upon returning to GR to see that prices haven’t moved much.  I got a media call at the end of July asking about this, and at the time, the move in retail did seem in line with the move in wholesale.  However, with the price hike last week to $3.89, and with the slow, slow drops since then, we seem to be a price leader in the region, as prices are $3.62 in Fort Wayne, for example.  Last year in late summer, NYMEX became a lousy predictor of retail prices, and the same is true this year.  Using last summer’s and this summer’s data, I’ve tried this afternoon to cook up a short-term predictor based on a combination of the NYMEX and AXXIS prices.  I have no reason to believe why this works right now, but taking 1.25*AXXIS-0.4*NYMEX seems to get us to the right wholesale price.  Yes, that doesn’t make any sense.  However, using today’s prices, we get a 0-cent margin price of about $3.67.  With current prices in the $3.72 to $3.89 range, it is in that grey zone where we could get a price hike because some stations are near the 0-cent margin price, or we could pass, because other stations are still at $3.89.  So, no prediction, but if you can buy gas for $3.72, then you should do so.


Add a Comment
  1. It really frustrates me that we are being forced to pay so much for gas here. I travelled to Ohio last weekend and was paying 30 cents less a gallon. Now, they are closer to 40 cents less. It seems to me that Greedway and Greed Petrolium need to start letting our prices drop a little here in Michigan as well.

  2. Kathy W (Martin, MI)

    Paid 3.69 at Meijer in Plainwell on M-89 this afternoon. Price is 3.89 in Martin at the Clark Station.

  3. In response to Bill – Check Michigan tax on gas vs. Ohio state tax and find one of your reasons why this is.

    Greedy Government is who you should be upset with. Hang the ones that raise taxes every chance they get! The government Federal and State make more gasoline then the “evil” petroleum companies. Get a clue.

  4. looks like MI has a 8 cents higher per gal tax than Ohio. Is this right?

  5. Ray: that link must be an average or something like that. Michigan is one of the 8 State’s that get away with charging sales tax on gasoline. We have 19 cents road tax, plus at $3.799 sales tax is 20.4 cents, for a 39.4 cent total. Indiania has 18 cents for road tax and also charges 6% sales tax. Ohio has a flat 28 cent road tax and no sales tax. As long as retail prices are above $1.759, Michigan’s taxes will be higher.

    I don’t ever get to see Ohio rack prices, but they must be lower than ours here. I know that their is some addtitional transportation costs for getting product up here, but I can’t imagine that it would be higher than 5 cents. They are rarely more than a penny different between Jackson and Muskegon.

    Ed: Your formula is pretty close. Rack prices are about $3.18 so, our break even price is about $3.709. The market is up almost 4 cents so far today. I wouldn’t rule out a restore to $3.959 on Thursday.

  6. Retailer dont forget with credit card fees break even is roughly $3.84 (including freight) and that is on an E10 blend. Conventional gasoline is closer to $3.89 all in. Nicely put on the actual difference in taxes.

  7. What’s with the hike state-wide to 3.95 today?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please leave these two fields as-is:

Protected by Invisible Defender. Showed 403 to 1,755,031 bad guys.


This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. (c) All Rights Reserved Frontier Theme