While a spike should happen, I’ve been wrong before.

Last week was weird. Last week when I posted, the numbers pointed to a possible spike, and I called for one to happen. Well, it didn’t… except for Michigan. They did spike, but on Tuesday. So I was wrong in my prediction.

Right now, however, margins are all 17 cents or more. That’s not good, and we are ripe for a spike. What I think has been holding us back is the fact that with Chicago Spot so high, we are actually getting supplied by the Gulf Coast and their lower price. And we are still riding an artificial high since the storms and pipeline and refinery shutdowns. That being said, Gulf coast isn’t so much lower that we would avoid a spike.

So where will we go? Number indicate we could see anything from $3.899 to 3.999. Ohio would be about 10 cents lower. Keep an eye on the pump prices tomorrow so you can get gas while it’s cheap.

Posted in Predictions
21 comments on “While a spike should happen, I’ve been wrong before.
  1. Rich1430 says:

    Wow!!!! That will be a 25 cent per gallon (cpg) to 35 cpg increase here in Marion, iN which is par for the course. Does this spike factor include the Marathon refinery fire in Detroit, MI this past weekend 4/27/13? If not when would we se that being factored in at the pump? I could have other questions but these two will suffice for the time being.

  2. independent retailer says:

    3.80 cost to me today.

  3. TimmP says:

    WOW, that makes wholesale gasoline in the mid west 31ยข more expensive than the retail average in the rest of the country. Our governors need to look at that. HAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry. Indiana and Michigan love higher prices since we pay sales tax on gasoline.

  4. Mike - Kalamazoo says:

    I’m sure the little refinery fire in Detroit will find its way into a spike also.

  5. Aaron W. says:

    Interesting, $3.899 today. That’s not much of a profit. I have to wonder if $3.999 is now as bad as going over the magical price of $4.

  6. TimmP says:

    Right now, NYMEX RBOB is 99 cents cheaper, at $2.81. Really? 99 cents more to the mid west? Honest? This is surreal.

  7. ChrisDG74 says:

    Yep, visual confirmation. $3.799
    With spot well over $3, I would expect another spike later in the week(barring a drop in spot, of course).

  8. Mike - Kalamazoo says:

    just went to 3.899 in Kalamazoo

  9. TimmP says:

    $3.89 for Indiana/Fort Wayne. Welcome to the being among the highest gasoline prices outside CA. Remember, the pundits all predicted lower prices, falling prices.

  10. TimmP says:

    I have noticed that in Fort Wayne, it is not Speedway that jumps first, at least not city wide, but the first ones to be completely changed over to the new high prices is Lassus [Handy Dandy] stations. It’s almost as though they give the nearby Speedways the “GO” card.

  11. Jerry J says:

    You were right ! Gas shot up from $3.58 to $3.89 overnight. IN zip 47957 !

  12. Rich1430 says:

    If this spike was not factorEd in to what was lost on Saturday’s refinery fire in Detroit, I fear another possible spike next week making it what I call a two pronged spike. It went from $3.64.9 to $3.89.9 here in Marion, IN. An example of what I call a two pronged spike is the last spike before this one. Here, before the last spike regular unleaded was $3.39.9 it jumped to $3.55.9. After that spike it only dropped 3 cpg to $3.52.9 before spiking again the next week to $3.79.9. Sometimes we see the whole spike effect at once and other times in consecutive weeks.

  13. Tuebor says:

    From the news reports, I doubt the Marathon Detroit refinery fire had any impact on its production. Also, do you think any of its products travel west? I don’t know what the Detroit area’s daily consumption is but I thought any excess the refinery produces is probably shipped south or east.

  14. TimmP says:

    This is just not right. Deplorable, despicable, disreputable. No wonder lots of businesses don’t like to locate in our states. 45 cents a gallon more to operate any vehicle.
    http://www.indianagasprices.com/Price_By_County.aspx

  15. jonrev says:

    $4.19 regular everywhere in Lake County IL. Was $3.64 just two or three weeks ago.

  16. Sam says:

    Noticed something WEIRD this morning. Rockford, MI – gas yesterday $3.89 – this morning $3.77. ANOTHER HIKE perhaps?????? Lots of stations on gasbuddy.com around Grand Rapids still showing $3.89 as the high end.

  17. ChrisDG74 says:

    I was calling for a 2nd spike this week, after the first one.
    Unless spot drops(it was $3.08, don’t know what it’s doing today), I would expect Greedway to hit $4 ($3.999) in most of the territory(I know areas in Chicago are already well over that).

  18. ChrisDG74 says:

    With oil back up $3 today, any idea what spot did?

  19. Chris says:

    Oil had it steepest one day rise in nearly 6 months. I suppose the word “hopes” from some third world economy caused it to go up. Seems like it always cranks up on Fridays, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at $95 by this time tomorrow. Not sure what Chicago Spot did either, but I’m sure it went up. I’m working in Moraine, Ohio for a couple weeks starting Monday….will I see a spike to $4.19 while I’m there? Sure hope not!

    I witnessed the biggest price jump at the pumps in recent memory during the spike a couple days back. A station in Muncie went from $3.39 to $3.89 in one shot. I don’t ever recall a 50 cent increase…45 cents is the biggest jump I can remember. Anything’s possible in a Greedway state though.

  20. Turbo46032 says:

    I would be curious to see a national average gas price weighted by the number of people paying that price. Ie if Indiana is 3.99 and Montana is 3.39, is the average really 3.99 + 3.39 / 2 or should we be considering the population difference too? The Speedway zone is a good fifth of the country give or take, likewise the West is hosed, the East is hosed, and the lucky ones are the smaller mountain and South states and a few big ones like Texas…

    Are people in the Midwest more gullible or is there a more sinister reason behind this?

  21. Michael says:

    Yesterday in Palm Bay, Florida, we saw ads for $3.35. This morning most stations advertised $3.49

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