Comment on the October 25 prediction: The prediction that we would “probably” see a system-wide jump to $4.99 last Monday was WRONG.
Sunday, November 1, 2026, 2 PM: In the past two years, there have been numerous times when the Marathons in west Michigan tried to initiate a price hike, only to have the competition say “Yeah, no.” Most noteworthy was at the beginning of May of this year, when Big M attempted a brief foray above $5 a gallon. The latest was a week ago, when I spotted $4.99’s at the twin Marathons in Lowell on Sunday. That attempted hike ran into an incredible drop in wholesale prices last week — as much as $1 a gallon — which the retailers passed along to us for the most part. This afternoon, you can fill up for $4.19 a gallon in Rockford.
I wonder what the regional price guy at Marathon thinks of all of this.
Will we get a hike this week? I thought the answer in Indiana would be “a big yes” once we get past Election Day, but signs are that the governor will extend the gas tax holiday into December.
However, throughout the Midwest (and this is all instinct on my part), I am expecting a region-wide reset on Wednesday morning, after the election. Kalshi’s commodities markets aren’t signaling any drama in oil prices going into Monday, but those prices remain elevated. Wholesale gas prices dropped precipitously after issues at the refinery in Joliet settled down and the usual autumn slide in prices kicked in. I estimate the 0-cent margin price is just about $4 even. If we get a hike this week, recent history for restoring margins suggests $4.49 or higher, and many stations are there right now. -EA
