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Comment on September 14 prediction: Correct. Indiana and Michigan spiked on September 16 with Ohio following on September 17.

Monday, September 21, 2015, 11:10 PM: Decent sized jump in wholesale today puts us back in the danger zone. Ohio is still slightly above the Spike Line, but Indiana and Michigan have headed below it with today’s increase. I’m looking for a Spike as soon as tomorrow to the $2.39 – $2.49 range for the Great Lakes region. Ohio may go a day later than Indiana and Michigan, but I wouldn’t chance it if I were you.

Updated: September 21, 2015 — 11:20 pm


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  1. Mike, only thing that I can think of (other than that fire at the Husky fire at the refinery in Ohio a week and a half ago or so) is that the refinery utilization numbers came in with a massive drop last wed (from about 98% to 92%- some offline for maintenance). Problem is, seems like the information is always kept so close to the vest in the industry, short of Patrick “telling us” and keeping us updated, it seems nearly impossible to find out (heck, it’s nearly impossible to find the chicago spot price without someone keeping us updated on here). Maybe why there’s so much cynicism on here since there’s no transparency.

  2. The squirrels are extra rabid right now.

  3. Maybe I should offer my services and pellet gun to help them with that problem. 🙂

  4. I could send my giant kitten to hunt them… Then next thing you know Whiting is overrun with cats and the refinery shuts down because of giant hair balls…

    On a more serious note, why is it that Chicago wholesale price is higher than the south if both are using the same priced crude? Are they?

  5. See spot. See spot run.

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