Reality sets in: we’re going to see $100/bbl oil- then what?

It is definitely looking like we’ll see oil prices hit $100 a barrel here in the next few days as the market continues to get bullish news regarding gasoline and oil.

I haven’t yet said anything about diesel prices this Winter (I got an e-mail) but I think for the most part we’ll be setting record diesel prices this Winter. Not a pretty picture. I was on WOODAM 1300 a few mornings ago and explained that I don’t think anything will get better until we’re buried in snow (the deep winter months- January) and the refiners get gasoline and diesel pumping out.

After that? Oil is due for a large correction. Should come back to $70 or $80 no problems… so until that happens we’re going to continue to get set up for a market correction (hopefully not a recession)

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ConocoPhillips eyes Illinois for refinery expansion

Well, seems the hot idea these days! I suppose we can’t complain too much. High gasoline prices have put “a few more cents” in the pockets of large oil companies, raising the amount of money they spend on their infrastructure.

ConocoPhillips is awating approval for a significant increase in production for their Wood River, IL refinery.

A $2 billion expansion of the ConocoPhillips’ Wood River Refinery
in the SW Illinois portion of the region, that will ensure the
facility’s commercial viability for decades—even as alternative
fuels gain in importance—is moving towards final approval in
early October.

If, as expected, the investment is approved by the directors
of ConocoPhillips and its partner in the project, TransCanada
Pipelines, the refining capacity at Wood River would increase
from 306,000 barrels of crude oil daily to between 360,000 and
370,000 barrels a day. The increased capacity would come on
line in 2010.

Even more significant than growth in the amount of crude that
could be processed is the fact that the Wood River facility
would be able to process more Canadian crude, called “sand oil,”
because it is essentially oil-saturated sand. This lower quality
raw product is much more expensive to extract and difficult
to refine, but the supply is plentiful and reliable.

I bet I’ll find more expansion news in a few moments! 🙂

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Prices continue to moderate!

Its definitely been a while since I wrote here updating you all on gasoline prices! As you have all noticed, gas prices have slowly fallen to the $2.80s seen around the area today. Wholesale prices have slowly been falling, we saw a low of about 2.06 last week before a slight rise to today’s 2.0948.

We may see some investors cash out their oil and gasoline profits as the U.S. market fears of a downfall in housing scare folks off. This should cause gasoline prices to fall as well.

We’re still not out of the woods yet- hurricane season is starting to gear up. Today is July 30, and the major part of the hurricane season launches August 1. We’re seeing surface ocean temps in the Gulf running 85-90 degrees, which is definitely hot enough to cause a sneeze to turn into a major storm.

We should see prices slowly fall to the 2.70s, but a hike to 2.99 might occur somewhere here in the near future if prices on the market continue higher.

Midwest PADD storage is at 49.3 million barrels, virtually unchanged from a week ago.

No hike is imminent YET, but keep on the lookout here.

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TV Appearance Marked A Top For Prices

Saturday, July 14, 2007, 10:15 AM: My appearance on WOOD-TV 8 on Wednesday appears to have coincided with a top for wholesale prices. By that evening, as indicated by postings elsewhere on this site, wholesale prices were starting to head down and then BP started up the unit at its Whiting refinery that was contributing to the recent spike in prices. So, the lesson here is to have me appear on the news as a way to influence the refiners to get their refineries working again. I’m joking, but let’s see where we are at this morning. The Tuesday wholesale price spike has been reversed, but the Tuesday retail hike to $3.39 is still intact, which makes sense, because in my experience, retail prices hikes are usually based on the previous days’ wholesale price. That suggests to me that the 20-cent margin price is near $3.39. Prices are above $3.30 practically everywhere except on Cascade Rd and at the price clubs. So, I predict prices to fall slowly but surely the next few days, perhaps down to $3.19 in several places. Then we’ll see what happens next at the wholesale level.

Thanks to BP, let the price hikes begin! $3.59 tomorrow? $4 soon?

Thanks to BP it looks like we’re going to be seeing huge increases again in the Midwest.

For those who reside in Grand Rapids, be sure to tune in tomorrow morning at 8:30am to WOOD AM RADIO 1300 for an interview on gasoline prices.

Prices at my benchmark station in Burns Harbor have risen from $3.14
this morning to $3.38 this afternoon.

Not much new information right now, but this BP refinery is, as I’ve said, the largest in the Midwest.

Everyone in the Midwest will be effected, possibly the entire nation. Prices will continue to climb OUTSIDE the Midwest, but look for Midwest (Michigan/Minnesota/Indiana/Ohio/Illinois) to skyrocket quickly.

Today here in Grand Rapids, Speedway hiked to 3.39, but I am now thinking that a re-hike to $3.59 is likely tomorrow!


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Speedway, what are you doing?

Wow, its been a while. A few incorrect/correct/odd things going on. I called for a hike a few days ago last week, got a text message from Meijer stating prices were to go up, but then it fizzled and nothing happened!

What is going on with Speedway? They are either losing money (why would they do that NOW?) or have hedged against rising wholesale prices (which is also unlikely considering the circumstances). Speedway could be losing money to boost its public image for being the one to hike all the time, but why now, and why so late?

I’ll be on WOODTV8 at 6/630am tomorrow (Tuesday) and they will be asking me whats going on for July 4. First off, I can’t see any major changes besides the hike I’m still waiting for. I think we should be seeing $3.09-$3.15, but as “Retailer” pointed out, “we’re” all surprised that Speedway hasn’t yet hiked. Its been a long time, prices have been steadily climbing since their bottoming out a week or so ago. We are now about 15 cents higher on the wholesale market while prices continue to nosedive! What is going on? Midwest PADD is OK, its not “great”, but perhaps thats why we’re seeing a discount? Perhaps cheaper ethanol is lowering the price of a gallon? I don’t know for sure, but I AM enjoying the “cheaper” gasoline.

I am still waiting on a price hike which STILL could happen ANY day. I’ve been keeping full for a while.

I’m not exactly sure what to predict, other than prices are overdue to climb due to recent wholesale prices!! Stay full!

(I just have to toot my own horn a little, at the beginning of Spring I was quoted as saying May would be terrible but come June things should settle down to around $2.75, and here we are at $2.75! I don’t think we’ll stay here long, but we’ll see!)


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