With prices falling locally and wholesale prices remaining relatively flat, we’re close to a price hike.
I am led to believe that odds are against a hike, but it’s very close. If you need gas and can find it on your next trip out for less than $2/gal, I would definitely fill up. I’m nearing “E” and need gas soon, but I’ll probably wait until Monday.
The DOE report released today was excellent, and I don’t see any reason why prices should rally in the future. I expect that crude prices slowly fall over the next few weeks unless the economy makes some remarkable comeback.
It is 7AM, and I am updating my spreadsheets. We could see a hike today to $2.09 or $2.19, because wholesale prices went up yesterday. Just be prepared.
As Speedway raised prices to $1.999 this morning, oil was busy having a rally of it’s own. The active April contract hit just shy of $50/bbl today, and tomorrow’s Department of Energy report may result in an extended oil rally (meaning higher gasoline prices).
The DOE report tomorrow is setting the stage for $50 oil. Good report, oil could show a good decline. The front month April contract resisted hitting $50 today, but May and June surpassed $50/bbl.
It’s going to be up to the DOE report. I’m almost to the point where I say if the DOE report is bad, oil will begin a longer rally (weeks/months?) and if it’s good, we could go back down to around $43.50 and wait.
Tomorrow either the bulls will be let out or the bears. I have a feeling we’re seeing the beginning of a oil rally that will last into Summer.
Having said all that, wholesale prices for gasoline also rose 5-cents today. Speedway and friends are in a pinch- do they wait and see if the DOE report is good or bad? Or do they raise prices Wednesday to $2.09 and hope the DOE report is good so they won’t have to raise THREE DAYS in a row?
We’ll see. I’m betting on no hike tomorrow, but Thursday it’s looking likely…. everything at this point depends on the 10:30am EDT release of the hyped DOE report.
Saturday, March 14, 2009, 3:00 PM: Since the March 5 hike to $2.05, NYMEX and AXXIS numbers have bounced around but are basically where they were at on that day. Patrick is reporting that wholesale prices around Chicago have been pretty volatile down and back up, and that would explain $1.73 in Fort Wayne and $1.78 on Lake Michigan Drive today. Based on NYMEX/AXXIS, I have to predict that prices re-set on Monday or Tuedsay to the $1.99-$2.09 range.
Also, on the AXXIS site, there is a note that after April 15, that free service will be discontinued. I think they are on to us.
…but please lower your prices until you need to buy that more expensive gasoline!
Folks- that Chicago discount is drying up fast as the Winter blended fuel (RVP 11.5) is sold at an alarming rate. Summer gasoline that pollutes less but costs more to produce is starting to be produced (RVP 9.0) and will slowly work its way to market.
The Chicago Discount today has come way back off its highs of 30-cents (discount per gallon) and is under 10-cents. That means wholesale prices are higher, and it also sets the stage for an increase in gas prices as the discount dries up and stations begin filling their tanks with the more expensive Summer gasoline.
However, prices may dip to $1.7X this weekend (remember the first non-member station under 1.80 gets a shout-out!), so I wouldn’t be in a hurry to fill up.
Speedway States may have a price increase early next week so stay tuned!
Also check out our new Twitter Updates, which are going to be much more raw and updated more often than the blog.
A very unlikely situation (a good situation) has developed here in parts of the Midwest. I’ve noticed a trend that has resulted in much lower wholesale prices for the Chicago PAD District. Gasoline coming out of Chicago (which is most gasoline supplied to West Michigan), is currently DISCOUNTED nearly 30-cents from what it’s being traded at on the NYMEX. Chicago wholesale spot prices for regular unleaded are
$0.9972 tonight $0.972 this morning! (Yes, that’s under a dollar before tax and transportation costs) This is a result of refiners trying to sell off their remaining stocks of Winter blend gasoline before they are required by law to start production of lower polluting Summer blend gasoline. This discount will only last until the Winter blend is gone… think of it as a clearance sale!
Speedway and friends, LOWER YOUR PRICES! You’re making a killing- why can’t you pass this savings on to your customers? I take aim at Speedway since they were the first to rise to $2.05.
To benchmark, last week we only saw a discount of 7 to 9-cents off NYMEX prices, which meant that the same gasoline Friday was bought for $1.25ish per gallon. Any station taking delivery any time soon will be absolutely awash in profit since this Chicago Discount has really kicked in this week.
I ask that stations pass the savings they are getting onto consumers, or hey, at least HALF?!
$1.9X prices are too high. Where is $1.75? Let’s go stations. Lower your prices! The first METRO GR non-club station under $1.80 will get a THUMBS UP from me on this blog if it happens this week (lets see if anyone takes me up on that offer).