With wholesale gas prices going up again today, we are at near break even margins here in Indiana (with a little breathing room in Michigan). Prices here in the PADD2 area are now putting us in the red when it comes to national prices on the GasBuddy color map. Today it went up due to yet another DOE report where we are at a low 47.4 million barrels of gas, down from over 52 million barrels a couple weeks ago. There has to be something wrong with the supply, but for now I can only give you the bad news of higher prices, not the reason for them.
There is a possibility of a spike tomorrow. Since it would be the second in a week, something that usually doesn’t happen, there is also the possibility it won’t happen. But be on the lookout for prices going into the $2.70s, and possibly the low $2.80s if it does go.
Comment on the April 24 posting: A week ago, I worried about a hike to $2.15. We got it this week in two chunks — first to $2.05 on Tuesday, and then to $2.15 today. Wish I had filled up this morning.
Friday, May 1, 2009, 3:30PM: I was surprised to check out gas prices at lunch today and see we hiked to $2.15. It actually fits the NYMEX price, but as we have been reporting, there had been a “Chicago discount” in the price of gas in the area during the early part of the spring that has now disappeared. So, I guess we’ll start fresh next week with our monitoring of wholesale and resale prices.
With prices falling locally and wholesale prices remaining relatively flat, we’re close to a price hike.
I am led to believe that odds are against a hike, but it’s very close. If you need gas and can find it on your next trip out for less than $2/gal, I would definitely fill up. I’m nearing “E” and need gas soon, but I’ll probably wait until Monday.
The DOE report released today was excellent, and I don’t see any reason why prices should rally in the future. I expect that crude prices slowly fall over the next few weeks unless the economy makes some remarkable comeback.
As Speedway raised prices to $1.999 this morning, oil was busy having a rally of it’s own. The active April contract hit just shy of $50/bbl today, and tomorrow’s Department of Energy report may result in an extended oil rally (meaning higher gasoline prices).
The DOE report tomorrow is setting the stage for $50 oil. Good report, oil could show a good decline. The front month April contract resisted hitting $50 today, but May and June surpassed $50/bbl.
It’s going to be up to the DOE report. I’m almost to the point where I say if the DOE report is bad, oil will begin a longer rally (weeks/months?) and if it’s good, we could go back down to around $43.50 and wait.
Tomorrow either the bulls will be let out or the bears. I have a feeling we’re seeing the beginning of a oil rally that will last into Summer.
Having said all that, wholesale prices for gasoline also rose 5-cents today. Speedway and friends are in a pinch- do they wait and see if the DOE report is good or bad? Or do they raise prices Wednesday to $2.09 and hope the DOE report is good so they won’t have to raise THREE DAYS in a row?
We’ll see. I’m betting on no hike tomorrow, but Thursday it’s looking likely…. everything at this point depends on the 10:30am EDT release of the hyped DOE report.
Saturday, March 14, 2009, 3:00 PM: Since the March 5 hike to $2.05, NYMEX and AXXIS numbers have bounced around but are basically where they were at on that day. Patrick is reporting that wholesale prices around Chicago have been pretty volatile down and back up, and that would explain $1.73 in Fort Wayne and $1.78 on Lake Michigan Drive today. Based on NYMEX/AXXIS, I have to predict that prices re-set on Monday or Tuedsay to the $1.99-$2.09 range.
Also, on the AXXIS site, there is a note that after April 15, that free service will be discontinued. I think they are on to us.
PetroChina said it had received government permission to build a new refinery in southern China to process heavy crude oil from Venezuela.The joint PetroChina and Venezuelan project will result in a refinery that can process 200,000 barrels per day, El Universal reported Friday.General Manager Jiang Jiemin of PetroChina's parent company China National Petroleum Corp., said PetroChina would own ...