I meant to post this last night, but I got called away for diaper duty, and then bedtime. My apologies.
There was no DOE report yesterday because of the Columbus Day holiday. So will Speedway treat today as a Thursday or a Wednesday? If it is a Wednesday, they may wait for the DOE report before acting with a spike. If it’s a Thursday they may spike at 9am as they normally do. Indiana could go to $2.50-2.55, Michigan and NW Indiana about 5 cents higher.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009, 1:00PM: With today’s DOE report showing continued growth in the supply of gasoline, due to poor demand, NYMEX prices are already dropping, so we can expect retail prices to continue to drop. No price hike this week, and we are heading for the $2.30’s. — Ed Aboufadel
If you haven’t already, do look at the previous post Ed put out about gouging in Michigan. These are good reads for those interested in the oil industry, too.
Now, on to business. With a spike up in everything oil/gas/diesel, we are very ripe for a spike tomorrow. I’m putting it at about 65% possible. The margins for Michigan and Indiana just fell below 0 today after riding a period of profit taking. It’s possible we won’t see a jump tomorrow as Speedway and the other stations wait for the weekly DOE report Wednesday for which direction we should see for the end of the week. But it’s been a while since the last one, I’m betting on a spike up to the $2.67-2.73 range.
Do fill up tonight/early tomorrow as spike protection.
Thursday, June 11, 2009, 1:15PM: The extreme price jumps in the Chicago market continue to sort themselves out, and this report indicates that while NYMEX has been climbing (follow the UGA ETF for a quick read on that), Chicago wholesale prices have been falling. So, using a $2.07 NYMEX/Chicago wholesale price, I calculate a range of $2.61-$2.82, which means I can comfortably predict that prices will continue to fall into next week, at least to $2.69.
I see the prices falling in the next couple days at least, since the Chicago spot has fallen 21 cents since Thursday. The supply problem in the Midwest seems to be easing, and we have seen prices fall in some areas. Since I have had a report that Indianapolis stations recorded a negative profit for the month of May (a time retailers are supposed to gouge people coming in for the Indy 500) it’s not likely we are going to see as fast a fall as you would hope, as stations will look to recoup their losses.
Keep an eye on what the Chicago spot is doing on our “Today in Oil” page. As long as it continues to fall back toward the NYMEX RBOB, we too should see prices fall at the pump.
Comment on my May 27 posting: On Thursday, May 28, prices started to rise at the end of the day to $2.75. Since then, there have been hikes to $2.85 on Tuesday and $2.95 today.
Thursday, June 4, 2009, 6:35PM: I haven’t been very helpful with the price hikes this week, but Bill has! Let’s reflect a bit on the past five weeks. We have gone from $1.99 a gallon in Standale on April 27 to $2.95 a gallon today. Why? First we have numerous reports of mild gasoline shortages in the Midwest. Good job, gasoline industry, in managing this vital part of our economy! Second, the rise in gasoline prices has mirrored rises in the price of a barrel of oil (almost $20 a barrel) and in the Dow (almost 700 points) since April 27. Yes, as I’ve written before, we are dealing with speculators again. The price is being influenced by people who are demanding oil and gas as investments, rather than as fuel. While in the long run, higher prices will inspire new and cleaner fuels, which I support, in the short run, just as we are digging ourselves out of recession caused in part by financial geniuses who bought and sold “default swaps” and other products they couldn’t afford to support, prices spiking to $3 could cause it all to grind to halt again, like it did last summer. Great. Hopefully these artificially high prices in Chicagoland will soon attract cheaper gasoline from other parts of the country.