Tag: refinery utilization

Get gas, prices rise tomorrow!

Seeing as how the last two weeks I called for hikes on Thursday or
Friday, I waited this week to make the Monday predict. So… heres the
Monday predict (and I’m pretty certain this one will be Monday)

Prices have risen to near $2/gal wholesale as worries from Iran drive
prices higher, as well as longer than expected refinery maintenance,
and other bogus reasons why prices have gone up.

I suspect we’ll see $2.69 Monday. Be SURE to fill up today for $2.39 around Leonard/Fuller and Michigan/Fuller.

Refinery utilization went up as I predicted last week to 86.1%. I
overshot it just a touch, estimating 87%. I suspect we’ll see
utilization continue to climb to 87-88% in the next DOE report.

Fill’er up!
~Patrick

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$1.85 widespead, sneaky hike possible?

Woaaaa!! Where do I start?

How ’bout the DOE report.

Refineries operated at just 87.9% of capacity last week. The week before they were at over 91%! Whats changed? Profit. It most likely has been dropping like a rock. With lower profit, refiners aren’t encouraged to pump out products, so this doesn’t surprise me.

With the much lower refinery utilization, crude oil stocks swelled. They gained by 6.8 million barrels (WOW!) When I first saw this, I thought that gasoline stocks would have been lower, but no! Gasoline stocks had a 3.5 million barrel gain, bringing them to the upper end of the average range. With the colder weather, I anticipated a loss in distillate fuels. Nope! Distillates rose by nearly 1 million barrels. An excellent DOE report.

Now, off to check PADD storage to see if Midwest storage rose!

Well, looks like Midwest product storage rose to 55 million barrels. Who is ready for the Chicago Discount to get a touch bigger?

All signs I see are pointing to Grand Rapids Gas Prices coming down to around $1.85. If we see a large selloff today due to the unexpected gain in gasoline, we *COULD* see $1.79, but I’ll get back to you on that. Just look for $1.85 widespread soon.

Anyone else notice all the media stations covering dollar-plus gasoline? Its crazy. I think everyone did. The Press, WOOD8, WZZM13, etc. Amazing. Unfortunately guys, the lower price might increase demand. If that happens, we’re going to wipe out all the excess fuel before Spring. I hope that doesn’t happen.

So! The final words? No hike this week. Watch for $1.85 over the weekend, but be WARY. We *COULD* see a hike somewhere sneak past me. Grand Rapids has dropped faster than the national average AND we’re lower than some of the “cheap” cities (those that always have cheap gasoline). (Wow- OK, so I just checked Tulsa Gas Prices- they are ALWAYS cheaper than us. I see most the listings at $1.92, but two are at $1.72… does that mean even LOWER prices? I’ll keep an eye out!)

Enjoy it.
~Patrick

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Great DOE report, but will Iran and other news let us get to 1.99?

Another good DOE report. Crude gained, gasoline gained, and distillates gained.

Venezula and Nigeria cut their own oil output as a result of “low prices” (rediculous), but that news actually helped push oil prices lower because it was such a small cut (170,000 barrels together). I’m willing to bet while those countries cut their production, Saudi Arabia might be “secretly” ramping up their output.

Back to the DOE report: We’re now well above in every category: oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Not to mention natural gas spot prices have been flirting with $3!

Refinery utilization dropped to 89.9 and gasoline production dropped significantly yet inventories gained.

Looks like its time for fall maintenance!

Iran might be the only issue stopping us from getting a big drop in futures.

We could see $1.99 in scattered areas by weekend if prices drop on the wholesale market today.

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