Tag: prediction

Coming up next, price re-set to $2.49.

Comment on the July 6 prediction: As predicted, prices have been dropping steadily, down to $2.25 along Lake Michigan Drive, in fact. So, the prediction was CORRECT.

Sunday, July 19, 2009, 11:00 AM: Retail prices have fallen significantly this month, lagging but in line with the drops in the wholesale price as indicated by NYMEX and elsewhere. However, last week’s rally on Wall Street started to affect the energy markets late in the week, and NYMEX prices rose 13 cents a gallon. We are at the point where rising wholesale prices are colliding with dropping retail prices, which means a price hike is on its way, perhaps as soon as Monday. I predict a re-set to $2.49 a gallon, except for the handful of gas stations still at that price. Yes, I’m talking to you Speedway Ada! — Ed Aboufadel

Lower, lower, lower.

Comment on my June 30 posting: Prices reset to $2.69 on July 1, except for places where it had never fallen below $2.69.

Monday, July 6, 2009, 6:30PM: Wholesale prices have dropped significantly in the past week. With today’s close, I have the 0-cent margin price at a pretty $2.25. So, unless there is a dramatic reversal on NYMEX the next few days, the prediction is lower prices, with drops of at least 2-4 cents per day.

Gas prices to maintain $2.45-$2.69 range

Comment on my June 23 posting: Prices have continued to fall for a week, so the prediction was CORRECT.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 9:30PM: I just want to share what I am looking at right now. The moderate jump in wholesale prices this week has given us a 0-cent margin price of about $2.45 and a 20-cent margin price near $2.69. Yet, this is also the range of prices right now in the area, with gas below $2.50 in Allendale and at $2.69 in Ada and Lowell. So, we could get a price hike before Independence Day to $2.69, but some places wouldn’t notice. Or, the stations at $2.69 could drop their prices while stations near $2.49 will probably keep their prices constant. So, I don’t feel like a prediction is warranted, but I hope readers understand the underlying dynamic right now. — Ed Aboufadel

Lower prices expected, but Ada & Lowell remain high

Comment on my June 11 posting: Prices made it to $2.69 last week, and then lower this week, so my prediction was CORRECT.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009, 4:30PM: The stock market/energy market correlation continues. Stocks topped out recently on June 12, a day after the price of a barrel of oil did, while NYMEX waited until June 16. Since then, NYMEX has dropped 20 cents, and Chicago wholesale prices are down nearly 50 cents since June 4. That means the good news for us will continue, as the 0-cent margin price using Chicago wholesale prices is about $2.39. That means prices will continue to fall by several cents a day at least for the rest of the week. Hey, Ada and Lowell — get with the program!

— Ed Aboufadel

Consumers get a spanking as prices rise to $2.69

Tuesday, May 26, 2009, 1:55 PM:  Woe to us.  Prices rose at random places on SATURDAY to $2.59, and today Speedway is making sure we understand with a system-wide re-set.  The new price in Michigan is $2.69 a gallon.  There are two separate issues here:  one is the relentless climb since April 27 (when gas was $1.99 a gallon).  The other is what happened this weekend.

The relentless climb could be just a delayed seasonal effect, as we get these moves every year in March and April, often related to the switch to summer blend gasoline.  I think, though, that after the stock market recovered from that scary low in early March, the speculators are looking to make money again and driving up wholesale energy prices is a way to do it.  I have some confidence in this observation because it isn’t that retail demand for gasoline is on the rise, and gold prices have been climbing lately, too.

As for this weekend, there are some goofy things going on in Chicago.  I learned this morning that wholesale prices went up a lot on Friday in Chicago and that’s what caused the hike to $2.69.  Now, this morning, they’ve dropped almost a dime a gallon, and maybe, just maybe, we’ll see that in our retail prices by Wednesday.  That’s a wish, not a prediction.

Congratulations, Patrick, and Good Luck!

I want to publicly congratulate Patrick on this step forward in his career.  He had been keeping me abreast of his conversations with GasBuddy, and I was anticipating when this day will come.

When Patrick joined up with me a few years ago, The Gas Game was just a hobby of mine.  Some of you may recall my article in the Grand Rapids Press in 2002, along with my web site at gvsu.edu, as examples of this hobby.  With Patrick’s hard work, thegasgame.com became something special, with a great logo; RSS, reader comments and other tools to expand access; and several other obvious and hidden enhancements that have increased the visibility of this site.  Thank you, Patrick, for all the work you’ve done on this site.

Patrick and I have gone through a lot with this site the past few years.  The explosion of gas prices from below $2 to $4.25 brought us a lot of attention, and the dizzying drop this past year back below $1.50 has been amazing, too.  Due to all the news about gas prices the past few years, the site has been noted in media from Chicago to Washington, DC.

I don’t want to make it sound like we’re done now.  I will continue to post regularly to the site, making my comments and predictions about gas prices and possible hikes.  But with Patrick moving to Gas Buddy, postings on this site will be less frequent, and, as you may have noticed, I tend to focus on connecting the price of the futures to retail prices and pay less attention to refinery issues and Speedway rewards programs.  My quiet study of diesel continues, and I expect to have something intelligent to say about diesel pricing before the end of the year.  And, perhaps I’ll get another featured writer for the site.

Ed

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